2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2789204 4-Oct-2021 17:18

mattwnz:

Now there are apparently 7 active sub clusters, when only 5 days ago there were apparently only 3 active sub clusters, so it has more than doubled.

I think it is clear many people aren't getting tested and it is now spreading faster under level 3. So the actual case numbers are likely a lot higher. Level 4 the R0 was under 1, so it should have eventually died out under level 4, and with some extra interventions on flouters, and Auckland could have got back to level 2. But with the uptick in cases it must now be over 1. I saw a video of police taking in a sick woman on the streets today, and the number of stories of cases popping up randomly are a major concern . I really hope we are not heading in the direction of Melbourne.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/300422286/covid19-australia-victoria-has-1377-new-cases-melbourne-now-worlds-most-locked-down-city

In hindsight, it was always going to fail due to compliance. L4 tidied up normal people, but there were still households flouting it, L3 doesn't change that. Recent activities such as the gangs etc is probably the cause off the uptick now, L4 wouldn't have helped that, their luck ran out so so did Aucklands.

The whole issue this time around is compliance and that heavily includes large households mingling with families and neighbours. Minimal testing. You can't fight that.

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#2789206 4-Oct-2021 17:22

JPNZ:

Handsomedan:

Today's press conference leaves me speechless.

It's a bloody shambles.

Agree, aimless.

Agree❗️

Our more decile 1 communities and English impaired peoples will struggle with this. Outside or inside - 5 or 10 - children or and adults. They are struggling with the current rules.

Oh well - good luck with the numbers JA & Dr B.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

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#2789207 4-Oct-2021 17:24

So if we not already using rapid testing, when is the Govt going to, or are we going to be reactive like waiting until we get to 70% Vax before we start contemplating how to deal with the large overlap of ICU and Hospitals in general Auckland are going to need when we open at 90%?

https://www.nsw.gov.au/covid-19/health-and-wellbeing/rapid-antigen-testing

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#2789209 4-Oct-2021 17:24

Fred99:

Not sure what you folks expected?

There's no way Akl could go to L2 without disaster.

There's no way that locking down to L4+ to eliminate would be accepted without riots.

Easing up on some activities that have been identified as lower risk seems sensible.

100% Also factor in that 97% of cases are unvaccinated, so those many people that follow the rules and are outside are probably very safe indeed. Those that dont bother to get a test, arent vaccinated, who intermingle, will probably spread it amongst themselves , but they are doing that now.

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#2789210 4-Oct-2021 17:25

Re: @Tealeaf and @Sideface, my thoughts on the protests is that it shouldn’t have been allowed to proceed on the grounds of public health. By ‘stepping aside’ and allowing the protest to proceed uncontested, the damage has been done. Potential exposure may have taken place.

There are plenty of arguments either way, eg. Giving BT exactly what he wanted or increasing transmission through increased physical activity (breaking up the protests). I suspect that BT will try and cite previous lockdown protests with no prosecution as an example of persecution (who knows, probably plays well with his base).

The lack of enforcement is probably going to embolden BT and folks like him into doing a “pilgrimage out of Auckland” next to test the resolve of the government and police.

I don’t personally think that bumping up the fines to insane levels is the solution. I believe enforcement is. Just bumping up the fines (eg. Into thousands) and not improving the enforcement will probably increase the probability of fleeing drivers etc.

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#2789211 4-Oct-2021 17:25

wellygary:

Scott3:

- NZ government is only mandating vaccination from non-citizen arrivals.

Which is basically a cop out as currently only Citizens and PR can get access to MIQ, So the actual impact will be minimal...

Quite material for those on PR, Critical workers on visa's, and group MIQ booking people (Foreign sports teams, Antarctic program people etc.) who cannot produce proof of vaccination.

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#2789212 4-Oct-2021 17:26

sen8or:

A few crumbs of ifs and maybes with no commitment on when or what is required to activate the easing. Its Covid and its Delta, the only constant is that change is needed to both combat it and learn to live with it.

I didn't watch it just skimmed the outlines, but it would have been helpful to draw a line in the vaccination sand to say what can improve at 85%, 90%, over 90%. If nothing else than a bit more motivation.

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#2789214 4-Oct-2021 17:32

tdgeek:
it would have been helpful to draw a line in the vaccination sand to say what can improve at 85%, 90%, over 90%. If nothing else than a bit more motivation.

100% this. This also creates strong incentives for folks (or folks who know folks who haven’t vaccinated) to get the vaccine and hopefully not falling into the arms of BT/Anti Lockdown activists. Some folks are no doubt locked in but if we can get some of the less extreme folks - it’s a step on the right direction.

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#2789215 4-Oct-2021 17:33

TeaLeaf: 1. Not officially, but given how they have handled (or not) the situation, I don't think realistically making things easier and easier for people to non comply for the sake of appeasing those not effected by the lockdown, Id expect they are just stretching out hoping for numbers of single doses in the age group lagging to improve. 2. Well, that is how Jacinda answers everything, I "think", that is the "hope" etc. She doesn't speak in certainties or decisiveness. They did zero about stopping the US religious lead disinformation on the cannabis referendum, I do not expect them to start making a major stance on being decisive now. So yeah, no plan as far as I see.

1. They arent appeasing those not affected by the lockdown, they are releasing some freedom for those that are affected by the lockdown. Those that do the right thing are a bit better off now, those that dont comply, no change.

2. Decisiveness would be good, if you can read into the future

AFAIK the plan was elimination until vaccination. Some people have ruined that, before vaccination can take over. So now its the tricky need to hang on longer.

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#2789216 4-Oct-2021 17:33

mattwnz:

It is still going on.

But, No I don't think they have said they are giving up on elimination, as the elimination approach is needed until vaccination is high enough.

They 'eliminate while the vaccinate' is the wording they are using.

eliminate while vaccinate can be said of any other country in the world so it doesn't really mean much to me.

i'm just interested in whether the hospitals are going to get full.

i thought eliminate and opening up are mutually exclusive.

you could say zero tolerance and opening up can be done together but eliminate?

who knows

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#2789221 4-Oct-2021 17:44

My understanding of today 4pm briefing:

Government expects NZ to be 90+ double vaccinated in about 8 weeks.
Auckland is in level 3 until that happens
Some easing of restrictions over this period as this happens if case number don't go to crazy:
1) 2 families meet out-doors to socialize - max 10 people
2) Retail re-opens with spacing/number limits
3) Hospitality reopens with 50 limit

Schools and Daycare restart - more rules to be announced on this, Day care has bubble limits of 10 kids.

Hard Border remains around Auckland.

More announcements this week on:
- testing plans (assume/hope rapid tests coming here)
- What is going to be done to improve vaccination and catch those missing (ie Maori etc)
- maybe a teaser on vaccine passports for events, full details on that next week.

Probably not a bad starter as plans go, but needed to be clearer in media announcement today.

The fact that 2 families can met in the garden of a family home is going to lead to trouble in my opinion,
but then again meeting at a park for drink has similar issue with toilets, but a park at least has less temptation to go inside for a coffee...

Once retail is open it will be a sort of level 2.5 for a while.

Then IMHO for summer expect to stay in basically level 2 nationwide with vaccine passports for larger gatherings.

What else can we do? We need to move on and open up slowly.

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#2789222 4-Oct-2021 17:45

Batman:

eliminate while vaccinate can be said of any other country in the world so it doesn't really mean much to me.

i'm just interested in whether the hospitals are going to get full.

i thought eliminate and opening up are mutually exclusive.

you could say zero tolerance and opening up can be done together but eliminate?

who knows

You must already know this.

"i thought eliminate and opening up are mutually exclusive." Opening up? This is not about opening up. Its about eliminating (to reduce hospital use) while we vaccinate up to the 90% (which will also reduce hospital use). If and when we meet that vaccination target, lockdown can be eased. Opening up is what is planned after vaccinations are at the level they need to be, AND there is some form of vaccination ID so that when you fly or buy or watch or eat, you are in the company of the vaccinated.

As for hospitals getting full, it peaked at 40 ICU in use, its currently 30. They are adding more ICU capacity as we speak (read that a few days ago)

This outbreak of which 97% of all the cases are not vaccinated leaves us using 30 ICU. Its not out of control ICU wise at this point or close to it.

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#2789223 4-Oct-2021 17:45

tdgeek:
sen8or:

A few crumbs of ifs and maybes with no commitment on when or what is required to activate the easing. Its Covid and its Delta, the only constant is that change is needed to both combat it and learn to live with it.

I didn't watch it just skimmed the outlines, but it would have been helpful to draw a line in the vaccination sand to say what can improve at 85%, 90%, over 90%. If nothing else than a bit more motivation.

This approach seems to be working in NSW. Victoria has an approach closer to NZs and that seems to be less effective in driving vaccinations although that could be a result of their outbreak being a bit later than NSW.

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#2789225 4-Oct-2021 17:48

Fred99:

Not sure what you folks expected?

There's no way Akl could go to L2 without disaster.

There's no way that locking down to L4+ to eliminate would be accepted without riots.

Easing up on some activities that have been identified as lower risk seems sensible.

In terms of policy yeah, given going back up to higher alert levels had already been ruled out, and case are already trending up, any serious easing was off the cards.

But some low risk recreational easing (like me being able to go for a blast in the boat, and to drive out to piha) was needed to keep a positive spin on everything.

The messaging was a serious mess though. Now we have:

level 3
level 3 step 1
level 3 step 2
level 3 step 3

In my mind we should have just gone with

level 3
level 2.9
level 2.8
level 2.7 (or 2.5)

tdgeek

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#2789227 4-Oct-2021 17:50

I wonder if a mobile vax bus is an option? Especially for any problem suburbs. Community leaders have been mentioned a lot but Maori and Pasifika still seem to be struggling. They did door to door testing (which kicked up cases, maybe its time for door to door jabs.

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