2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2406133 24-Jan-2020 15:34

Oblivian:

tdgeek:

I dont think they eat bats. Bats carry about 60 viruses, that cant be transmitted to humans, but they can get to humans via another animal. The virus isnt recognised by the human so the human body doesnt try to destroy it. They reckon raw meat of different type of animals allowed the transfer, I think they had some Crivet Cats also? That are supposed to be banned? Something roughly like that. Now I heard snakes might be the cause. I assume bats caused the Australia and Middle East outbreaks

Surely not.. yet https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7920573/Revolting-footage-shows-Chinese-woman-eating-bat-scientists-link-coronavirus-animal.html

OMG

Fred99

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#2406143 24-Jan-2020 16:08

A virus doesn't necessarily need an intermediate host to jump species infect humans.

But there's probably a good reason why often an intermediate host is probably involved in cases like this "Wuhan virus" - *sick animals are easy prey for humans collecting "bush food" for sale, and as I understand it, there's a thriving market for such food in China. Apart from the risk to human health, they'll eat some species to extinction - and that really needs to stop.

* It's quite likely that primary host / reservoir species doesn't show any symptoms of disease, as rather than "suddenly appearing" the disease has most likely been endemic in that population for thousands of years, the host and pathogen have adapted. Any new severe disease is probably a zoonose, whether it's bacterial or viral.

Batman

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#2406154 24-Jan-2020 16:46

I still think the reason is very simple. Lots of wild animals around waiting to be eaten. Perfect for diseases to spread. Ever sent your kids to child care? Now imagine wild animal child care but lots of them in the one room.

tdgeek

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#2406227 24-Jan-2020 20:19

Batman: I still think the reason is very simple. Lots of wild animals around waiting to be eaten. Perfect for diseases to spread. Ever sent your kids to child care? Now imagine wild animal child care but lots of them in the one room.

How does that work in the Middle East and Australia who also had outbreaks? Do they eat Batburgers with fries as well?

Too much speculation. These viruses are everywhere, waiting for one opportunity. Then they capitalise on the exponential affect, helped when once infected, symptoms are over a week away

gzt

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#2406388 25-Jan-2020 07:06

Batman: It's turned out that the cause, while still a bit fishy, is probably very simple - the Chinese eat all sorts of wild animals. Bats, koalas, you name it. The wild animals must carry diseases which spread, and sometimes cause an outbreak!

Examples of previous vectors:

Australia: Bats to Horses to Humans
Middle East: Bats to Camels to Humans
Malaysia: Bats to Pigs to Humans

In Australia and Malaysia it's possible fruit was the vector between bats and the next animal.

It's really to early to say in this new outbreak.

Oblivian

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#2406470 25-Jan-2020 10:02

Matter of time now

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-outbreak-uk-cases-britain-latest-public-health-england-hancock-a9300666.html

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gzt

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#2406486 25-Jan-2020 10:28

It's serious for sure. In measures are being taken and it will be controlled by authorities in each country.

Mortality for this one is around 3% of those with symptoms. Perhaps comparable to the 1918 influenza epidemic.

This is bad, but not as bad as a corona outbreak in Malaysia back in 1999 at around 40-75% mortality for those with symptoms. This latest in China is nowhere near as bad in terms of mortality.

Edit: removed reference to high mortality in Australian origin outbreak back in 2000 something. Looks like figures for that outbreak were revised down over time. The initial round of infections seems to have been the worst in that case.

Oblivian

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#2406641 25-Jan-2020 14:24

Aaaannnnnddd only now 3500kms away

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12303420

Fred99

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#2406826 25-Jan-2020 20:01

First case of human to human transmission outside China reported in Vietnam. (It's confirmed that the infection is 2019-nCOV, and confirmed that it was passed on from a family member).

56 million people now quarantined in China.

There's a lot of questionable claims being made on social media in China about the situation in Wuhan, it seems that panic may have set in - panic buying of food, hospitals inundated - no doubt including many "worried well".

I have a bad feeling about this virus - something like it was always on the cards, we'll see in a few days how many new cases start appearing outside China - maybe that'll give some better indication whether measures that are being taken to contain it will work.

Fred99

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#2406829 25-Jan-2020 20:08

gzt:

Mortality for this one is around 3% of those with symptoms. Perhaps comparable to the 1918 influenza epidemic.

There's actually no data from which to calculate a mortality figure:

Of the 1400 or so confirmed infected, then there's still several hundred in intensive care - so the final mortality rate may be much higher.
The 1400 confirmed may be the tip of an iceberg, there may be many thousands infected, but with mild symptoms and not likely to require medical attention and as such will not be diagnosed, so the mortality rate may be lower.

703

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#2406906 25-Jan-2020 22:38

Is it true NZ doesn't have the lab technology to confirm any cases?

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#2406908 25-Jan-2020 22:53

It will arrive here, irrespective of all the preventive actions being taken - they are pointless and ineffective.

For proof of this, simply look at the flight tracker app - thousands of planes continuously moving people around the world 24 hours a day.

Fred99

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#2406909 25-Jan-2020 23:19

703:

Is it true NZ doesn't have the lab technology to confirm any cases?

They're setting up to be able to conduct RT-PCR tests here soon - in the meantime samples will be sent to Aus.

As initial symptoms are similar to cold/flu and as the patient is a contagion risk possibly even before symptoms develop, then it's critical that there's capacity and rapid reporting. The publicity that this is getting will make this worse, as "worried well" (maybe only with a cold) demand attention.

IMO it's probably too late to stop it getting to NZ - the virus will probably already be here.

Oblivian

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#2406910 25-Jan-2020 23:43

Seeing posts trying to downplay it appearing with the population statistics. And how it's -/+ 30,000 a day on 1.7billion(?), so a few sick people in each country is a drop in the bucket and nothing to worry about.

It may look miniscule in that respect. But with 200 people either direction 4x a day to this city alone with summer peak, The spread capabilities can be equally in the thousands every hour.

Fred99

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#2406935 26-Jan-2020 08:56

Oblivian: Seeing posts trying to downplay it appearing with the population statistics. And how it's -/+ 30,000 a day on 1.7billion(?), so a few sick people in each country is a drop in the bucket and nothing to worry about.

It may look miniscule in that respect. But with 200 people either direction 4x a day to this city alone with summer peak, The spread capabilities can be equally in the thousands every hour.

There seems to have been a shift in official attitude:

Xi is reported to have referred to the "grave" threat posed by the "accelerating spread" of the virus. (This from Stuff republished from Washington Post). I assume the news is factual, but the translation of Xi's exact words may give over or under-emphasis to the words he used. Anyway, it's a shift from the older message - paraphrased as "don't worry - we have this under control".

China is (or was) getting some plaudits for the way they're handing this. I'm not convinced - after the SARS outbreak was traced to civet cats collected for food and sold in markets, then to the reservoir host species (bats) China supposedly outlawed live wild meat sales. Over time, it appears that lesson was forgotten.

A note about demographics - so far this disease has killed mainly middle-aged to elderly people. It's still early days, some comments from China give a reasonable explanation - it seems that many younger people think the practice of selling live wild animals in markets is not okay, and don't eat that kind of food - considering it disgusting. They comment that the age group buying live wild animals in the markets matches that of the deaths - and they were the first to be infected. The skew is probably the result of that - and it will probably change.

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