2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2869653 16-Feb-2022 14:24

Big numbers are

Yesterday 40 in Hospital 0 n ICU

Today 56 and 0

There is a lag between being a case and if it gets hospital bad, Im hoping that while cases will rise, the only important number is hospital and ICU, if they continue to creep up as a very small % of cases, then thats some form of a win

Benoire

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#2869657 16-Feb-2022 14:27

I'm expecting massive increases in general case numbers and people catching it and steady increases in hospital admissions... will also see increase in ICU as the virus finds the unvaccinated and those who have other medical complications. I'm not expecting the slow start we had to continue and think it will explode somewhat but hopefully the amount of boosted and vaccinated will reduce the load in hospital.

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#2869661 16-Feb-2022 14:34

Genuine question (asking for a friend) are the daily reported cases independently verified?

After reading that article a few days ago about the Govt/MoH making up a vaccination projection graph and then trying to cover it up after Stuff OIA'd the source data, a small part of me wonders how accurate the case numbers are, and if they are genuine.

tdgeek

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#2869663 16-Feb-2022 14:37

Benoire:

I'm expecting massive increases in general case numbers and people catching it and steady increases in hospital admissions... will also see increase in ICU as the virus finds the unvaccinated and those who have other medical complications. I'm not expecting the slow start we had to continue and think it will explode somewhat but hopefully the amount of boosted and vaccinated will reduce the load in hospital.

Yep. If the lag is a week or so (from test to hospital bed) well, then one week from when the cases took off a few days ago, its worth watching. From then on the hospital bed and ICU is probably a very good guide. Irrespective of the case numbers, as we dont know if case numbers are 50% understated or 90% understated. But beds and ICU will be a very good metric.

wellygary

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#2869664 16-Feb-2022 14:37

tdgeek:

Big numbers are

Yesterday 40 in Hospital 0 n ICU

Today 56 and 0

There is a lag between being a case and if it gets hospital bad, Im hoping that while cases will rise, the only important number is hospital and ICU, if they continue to creep up as a very small % of cases, then thats some form of a win

Yes, but...

The hospitalisation numbers are in Hospital "because of COVID" its just those in hospital "that are positive for COVID"- they may have slipped on spilt milk...

Interesting that 10% of all those who went through Middlemore's ED tested +ve (RAT) yesterday...

Overall testing positivity is near 4%..... ( likely higher in Auckland) SA got as high as 15% ( although there was s spike to 19%)

Benoire

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#2869665 16-Feb-2022 14:40

tdgeek:

Yep. If the lag is a week or so (from test to hospital bed) well, then one week form when the cases took off a few days ago, then from then on the hospital bed and ICU is probably a very good guide. Irrespective of the case numbers, as we dont know if case numbers are 50% understated or 90% understated. But beds and ICU will be a very good metric.

I think the conversation from the government should now shift, and it was kinda with the Director Generals press conference today, away from cases and to Hospital/ICU load. Omicron is out there and its growing and you won't be able to fully avoid it if you attempt to lead a life of any normality so many people will get and most should be fine, but with our limited ICU capacity that is the key differentiator and should be used to show how good/bad NZ is actually doing now and to give people the sense that ICU is gone so be careful in what you do.

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tdgeek

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#2869668 16-Feb-2022 14:41

wellygary:

tdgeek:

Big numbers are

Yesterday 40 in Hospital 0 n ICU

Today 56 and 0

There is a lag between being a case and if it gets hospital bad, Im hoping that while cases will rise, the only important number is hospital and ICU, if they continue to creep up as a very small % of cases, then thats some form of a win

Yes, but...

The hospitalisation numbers are in Hospital "because of COVID" its just those in hospital "that are positive for COVID"- they may have slipped on spilt milk...

Is thats still a thing? As this is the first real outbreak of note, we need better data. As time goes on there could be many in Hospital due to milk and Covid, but are otherwise fine.

mattwnz

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#2869669 16-Feb-2022 14:43

tdgeek:

Big numbers are

Yesterday 40 in Hospital 0 n ICU

Today 56 and 0

There is a lag between being a case and if it gets hospital bad, Im hoping that while cases will rise, the only important number is hospital and ICU, if they continue to creep up as a very small % of cases, then thats some form of a win

I am surprised the hospital numbers are increasing quite a bit so early on. It is likely there are 10's of thousands now with the virus and it seems pretty rampant in Auckland. I hope that we will get stats on how many in hospital and ICU haven't been vaccinated as this is very important for the vaccination messaging to debunk antivaxxers. It is important to know the number of people who have the virus, in terms of the % of people that get it, that then need hospital treatment, in terms of planning, and for things like restrictions if the hospital system gets overwhelmed.

I have also noticed that supermarkets are now putting up prices quite a bit in the last few weeks, and removing discounts. My local one has just removed supergold card discount day, where supergold card people got 5% off. Not good timing at the start of this pandemic wave in NZ, especially as older people are most affected by the virus and also inflation. It is not as though supermarkets are very safe of elderly either with all of the people not wearing masks, and the MOH not requiring anti-mask people to provide documentation that they have an exemption. These non mask wearers , many are doing it out of protest, and therefore may not be vaxxed. And good luck keeping them at home isolating if they catch it.

debo

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#2869671 16-Feb-2022 14:47

debo: (5th Feb)
ajobbins:

On Dec 1st, NSW had 242 cases. It took until Dec 15 for them to crack 1,000, but by Dec 29th they were at 11,000

Challenge accepted! Even with a 5 day headstart and a shorter month, I'm sure we can better that.

So we cracked the 1000 case mark today with 1160 cases today. That makes us only 1 day behind NSW. It's all on!

tdgeek

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#2869675 16-Feb-2022 14:59

mattwnz:

I am surprised the hospital numbers are increasing quite a bit so early on. It is likely there are 10's of thousands now with the virus and it seems pretty rampant in Auckland. I hope that we will get stats on how many in hospital and ICU haven't been vaccinated as this is very important for the vaccination messaging to debunk antivaxxers. It is important to know the number of people who have the virus, in terms of the % of people that get it, that then need hospital treatment, in terms of planning, and for things like restrictions if the hospital system gets overwhelmed.

I see the hospital numbers more positively. I agree there are MANY more cases out there, so going from 40 to 56 is quite a low change. But Im not 100% sure on the lag between catching it, and going to hospital. That needs to be factored in from the day a few days ago when cases took off

Bolded, very much so.

vexxxboy

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#2869676 16-Feb-2022 15:05

tdgeek:

Big numbers are

Yesterday 40 in Hospital 0 n ICU

Today 56 and 0

There is a lag between being a case and if it gets hospital bad, Im hoping that while cases will rise, the only important number is hospital and ICU, if they continue to creep up as a very small % of cases, then thats some form of a win

Yes, but...

The hospitalisation numbers are in Hospital "because of COVID" its just those in hospital "that are positive for COVID"- they may have slipped on spilt milk...

Is thats still a thing? As this is the first real outbreak of note, we need better data. As time goes on there could be many in Hospital due to milk and Covid, but are otherwise fine.

it has been a thing in every country, at least 70% of hospital cases were in hospital for something else and tested positive to Covid so they were classed as covid hospital cases.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

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ezbee

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#2869682 16-Feb-2022 15:26

Hospitals
One of the locations was an aged care ward in Auckland Hospital ?

Then you have all the problems it causes the Hospital to manage cross infection control with X number of cases as numbers grow therein.
Fewer nurses on wards and lower levels of care and rehabilitation for everyone is least of operational problems.

Hospitals concentrate numbers of people with co-morbidities,
and people vulnerable due to necessary treatments or their conditions suppressing immunity.

Mine has plenty of obesity, renal, respiratory, and heart conditions, aside from what turns up at always overstretched ED.
I have someone I know in there at the moment, not sure they are getting care they should in normal times, but lucky to get any soon ?

If you want a concentration of immune compromised this is the place.
So yes numbers of cases in Hospital is not something to worry about ?

sen8or

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#2869688 16-Feb-2022 15:31

there was a Middlemore Dr on the news a few nights ago saying that "some" of the cases that were positive were in hospital for other reasons, the covid test was secondary, which to be fair, makes even more of a mockery of the fear and panic inducing efforts of MSMs reporting and sensationalising of the raw numbers.

As always, the devil is in the details.

No one advocates for more hospitalisations, and nor is there an acceptable death rate, thats just daft, but if what we are being preached by MSM doesn't tell the whole story, then why aren't we being told?

So much goes into slamming the anti-vaxxers as "disinformation", and I 100% believe that much of what they try and spew out as "facts" are far from it, but when MSM are equally (if not more) guilty of tailoring the story without full disclosure, I can see some of their point of view.

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#2869690 16-Feb-2022 15:36

Our doctor and pharmacy share the same building.

They're now harder to get into than they were in full lockdown! The door is locked and two CCTV door buzzers have been installed. You have to stand outside and answer the inane questions before they will even open the door!

You cant then walk round the pharmacy. You have to ask for what you want, they get it and bring it with the EFTPOS terminal.

langi27

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#2869696 16-Feb-2022 15:49

maybe asked before, with 1000+ cases a day, what is the point of anyone staying at MIQ? shouldn't they just open the doors and say see you later regardless of which country you came from. Stopping 40+ cases at the boarder seems a waste of time and money when we get over 1000+ cases in community.......or maybe i've missed the point.

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