2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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BDFL - Memuneh
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#2502740 11-Jun-2020 08:59

@mattwnz:

Someone previously posted a link to an article about this a few weeks ago. Although I can't find it as the search page has no search box, and it maybe about 100 pages back.

Not sure what is on there because even testing on three different browsers (including Firefox with its blocking on), the Google Search box still appears for me.

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Rmani

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#2502797 11-Jun-2020 10:45

Worked fine in Edge & IE (surprise), appears to be a hit&miss in chrome. Refresh works, but not always.

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Fred99

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#2502809 11-Jun-2020 11:11

Batman:

WHO sowing more confusion? (again!) they made a statement saying asymptomatic spread is rare. the internet reacted (saying why did we need to lockdown. we've been fooled, etc etc etc), but the doctors say that's not true - WHO is wrong and shouldn't have said that because of the confusion it's caused. something like that.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/09/health/asymptomatic-presymptomatic-coronavirus-spread-explained-wellness/index.html

If (true) asymptomatic spread was common, then we'd have never eliminated C-19 here. I think WHO is probably correct, but it's been misinterpreted - confusion between asymptomatic and pre-symptomatic. I also think it's been politicised in countries where they've mishandled things - the notion of widespread "asymptomatic" spread justifies the political position that "there's nothing we can do" to stop C-19 transmission. They grasp at straws that the answer is to limit spread by wearing masks, but fully reopen the economy. I don't think it's going to work. We'll see in coming weeks.

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#2502835 11-Jun-2020 12:08

Fred99:

I also think it's been politicised in countries where they've mishandled things - the notion of widespread "asymptomatic" spread justifies the political position that "there's nothing we can do" to stop C-19 transmission. They grasp at straws that the answer is to limit spread by wearing masks, but fully reopen the economy. I don't think it's going to work. We'll see in coming weeks.

Yup... I also think that widespread asymptomatic is a basis for an assertion that there's much more infection than we can see, and consequently the mortality rate is much lower than it appears. This is a prop for those who want to promote herd immunity as a solution. If it appears that 5% of the population is detected as infected, then the assertion is that 50% is in fact infected, herd immunity is at hand, only .05% of the population has died, and very few more deaths will occur due to the herd immunity. Problem solved!

However, in NYC, where there is assumed to be a 10:1 ratio of infected to detected, the fatality rate (based on deaths/detected) is about 10%. So the true fatality rate is still about 1%.

DS248

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#2502867 11-Jun-2020 12:51

"Fauci says the WHO's comment on asymptomatic spread is wrong"

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/09/health/asymptomatic-presymptomatic-coronavirus-spread-explained-wellness/index.html

Further discussion of the WHO comment

https://healthfeedback.org/evaluation/people-who-do-not-show-symptoms-contribute-to-significant-covid-19-transmission-contrary-to-cnbc-report/

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-comments-from-dr-maria-van-kerkhove-at-yesterdays-who-press-conference-that-asymptomatic-transmission-of-sars-cov-2-is-rare/

Data clearly show asymptomatic spread of SARS-CoV-2 is a significant factor, albeit mostly from presymptomatic rather than truly asymptomatic (/subclinical) people.

Paucisymptomatic (minimal symptoms) is potentially a more significant factor in terms of unidentified spread as many of these people may not bother being tested. That will more relevant here now that many testing locations have been closed.

There is a discussion of issues related to presymptomatic vs asymptomatic spread here https://regenexx.com/blog/why-is-rare-asymptomatic-covid-transmission-a-bad-thing/

Close contact vs community transmission is relevant to the issue. The cases quoted do not appear exactly comprehensive though.

neb

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#2502873 11-Jun-2020 13:11

Wander4821: Harvard pointed out some odd satellite traffic data around a hospital in Wuhan, well before the speculated start of the pandemic. Can find it on BBC under the title "Coronavirus: Satellite traffic images may suggest virus hit Wuhan earlier".

Basically there was around a 67% increase from 2018 in car traffic for a major Wuhan hospital from October 2019. So it could suggest a health crisis began earlier.

Two thousand years ago we used to consult goat entrails to tell us why the crops had been hit by a plague of locusts. Now we look at blurry photos of car parks in China to inform us about plagues.

(With an implicit "rejecting the, oh, million other reasons why there could be a few more cars in a car park, as well as the lack of any other evidence supporting our goat-entrai... uhh, car-park theory").

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DS248

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#2502874 11-Jun-2020 13:13

WHO urges NZ to do more work on its contract tracing systems

https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/national/who-urges-nz-to-do-more-work-on-its-contract-tracing-systems/ar-BB15jFcR?ocid=spartan-ntp-feeds

freitasm

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#2502942 11-Jun-2020 14:18

From press release:

The Ministry of Health has today published the Independent Review of COVID-19 Clusters in Aged Residential Care Facilities report.

The report was commissioned by the Director-General of Health in April to learn from clusters of COVID-19 in Aged Care facilities so New Zealand would be better placed to manage any further occurrences — Review of Aged Residential Care facilities under way.

The report includes a number of recommendations for improvements which the Ministry will be seeking sector feedback on. Following this feedback, the approach, priorities and agreed actions can be confirmed.

Both the independent reviewers and the Ministry have acknowledged the work of staff and others involved in aged residential care to protect a vulnerable group of the New Zealand population, and in preventing and managing the cluster outbreaks.

The Ministry also recognises the willingness of the sector to participate in the review and to put in place measures to limit further clusters or infections.

The review examines in detail five clusters, as well as looking at a similar number of facilities which were largely unaffected.

The panel report has confirmed that the infections were introduced to the facilities by staff or visitors. ESR data shows that three facilities experienced staff cases first.

The key focus of both the reviewers and the Ministry is to improve systems to prevent similar occurrences. Addressing faults in our systems reinforces the quality improvement focus used throughout health and disability services. No blame is being attributed to any staff involved.

The Ministry will be seeking feedback from aged care representatives, DHBs and PHUs on feedback on the Review recommendations over the next three weeks to inform a response and an agreed action plan for improvement.

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Fred99

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#2502952 11-Jun-2020 14:39

frankv:

However, in NYC, where there is assumed to be a 10:1 ratio of infected to detected, the fatality rate (based on deaths/detected) is about 10%. So the true fatality rate is still about 1%.

I think the CFR of 1% is probably about right, going to vary from country to country, region to region - especially with age demographics.

In the entire US they have a current "official" CFR >5%, 2 million confirmed cases, 115,000 dead, extrapolate from that to estimate they've actually got >10 million cases - but they'd need 20 times more cases than that to get close to "herd immunity". That's ~2 million deaths in the US - eventually - if an effective treatment or vaccine isn't found.

Fred99

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#2502957 11-Jun-2020 14:47

Handle9:

When you look at somewhere like Qatar, ~71,000 have been found to have the virus but only ~62 reported deaths.

Only 4% of the population in Qatar is 55 years old or over, only 1% 65 years old or over.
So there's a very simple explanation for that apparent anomaly in case fatality rate.
Compare USA, UK, here in NZ - close to 30% of the population is aged 55 years old or over.

Fred99

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#2502959 11-Jun-2020 14:53

DS248:

"Fauci says the WHO's comment on asymptomatic spread is wrong"

Fauci's been wrong about a lot of stuff. Arguably if he'd been "allowed to do his job" and had greater influence on policy, then things might have been different.

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wellygary

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#2502962 11-Jun-2020 14:57

Fred99:

Handle9:

When you look at somewhere like Qatar, ~71,000 have been found to have the virus but only ~62 reported deaths.

Only 4% of the population in Qatar is 55 years old or over, only 1% 65 years old or over.
So there's a very simple explanation for that apparent anomaly in case fatality rate.
Compare USA, UK, here in NZ - close to 30% of the population is aged 55 years old or over.

Those Qatar numbers are very similar to Singapore's ~38,000 cases with ~25 deaths... and again those low numbers are attributed to the large recent outbreak being in the dormitories of young migrant workers...

Even NZ's small case numbers point to most of the death being in the older cohorts, -

No one under 60 died in NZ and a large number of the deaths were connected to aged care homes...

Fred99

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#2503014 11-Jun-2020 15:23

Mexico's age demographic CFR is awful. 15% of confirmed cases aged 50-59 die, 25% of confirmed cases aged 60-69 die.
Supposedly only 19,000 "active cases", but 700 died so far today. So they're way behind on testing which skews the stats, but it's clearly way out of control there.

mattwnz

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#2503038 11-Jun-2020 16:07

freitasm:

@mattwnz:

Someone previously posted a link to an article about this a few weeks ago. Although I can't find it as the search page has no search box, and it maybe about 100 pages back.

Not sure what is on there because even testing on three different browsers (including Firefox with its blocking on), the Google Search box still appears for me.

@freitasm: It is working fine for me today, so may have just been a bug yesterday, where the entire grey 'enhanced by google search box was missing. . As someone else mentioned above who had a similar problem, I was also using chrome, and all ad blockers are disabled.

wellygary

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#2503041 11-Jun-2020 16:14

Not looking great on the Trans-Tasman bubble front...

I think we are about to get some real life data on mask wearing over the next few days...

"A man in his 30s who went to Saturday's Black Lives Matter protest in Melbourne, which thousands of others attended, has tested positive for COVID-19. He is one of eight new cases recorded in Victoria overnight, including a toddler.

The man, who wore a mask to the protest, developed symptoms in the 24 hours after the demonstration, the state's Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said"

https://www.theage.com.au/national/victoria/attendee-at-black-lives-matter-protest-in-melbourne-contracts-covid-19-20200611-p551jq.html

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