2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2512469 25-Jun-2020 19:11

OK, crisis averted (so far?). But does highlight a real risk, particularly with pre-symptomatic transmission.

Rest home staff member presumably worked following potential contact of someone who had been in quarantine (must have, or would not have been an issue).

Need further details to know how serious this was:

early release quarantine case or served out full quarantine before contact?
onset of staff member symptoms before or after working at the rest home?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/300042448/rest-home-locked-down-for-18-hours-over-coronavirus-threat

kingdragonfly

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#2512480 25-Jun-2020 19:43

freitasm:
I haven't watched this earlier...

So the guy who broke the lockdown twice decides to kick the guy who actually did the good work?

Damn you David Clark.

David Clark's smirk at the end speaks volumes.

I have a friend at Wellington hospital. He said most hospital old-timers hold the the Ministry of Health in low regard, doubly so for David Clark.

Instead of buck passing, and opinion spinning, David needs to lead, follow or get out of the way (give the job to someone else).

vexxxboy

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#2512482 25-Jun-2020 19:49

DS248:

OK, crisis averted (so far?). But does highlight a real risk, particularly with pre-symptomatic transmission.

Rest home staff member presumably worked following potential contact of someone who had been in quarantine (must have, or would not have been an issue).

Need further details to know how serious this was:

early release quarantine case or served out full quarantine before contact?
onset of staff member symptoms before or after working at the rest home?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/300042448/rest-home-locked-down-for-18-hours-over-coronavirus-threat

why , it was a precaution, the test came back negative , end of story.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

mattwnz

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#2512520 25-Jun-2020 21:19

kingdragonfly:
Geektastic: Somes Island could be restarted as a quarantine site...!

It's a great idea. Again I'd bet a house payment, we have at least one escape artist who, given half a chance, will break quarantine.

It isn't like quarantining people coming into nz is a new idea. I thought Somes buildings are now used by Doc and May not meet people's expectations of accommodation. But a great place to send covidoits.

mattwnz

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#2512523 25-Jun-2020 21:25

frankv:
mattwnz:

But it only worked and was probably the cheapest option for NZ, because we did it relatively early in the cycle, before the virus got widespread community transmission occurring. If we had waited much longer, then it may not have worked, or we may have had to be in lockdown even longer.

I disagree. The fundamental mechanism is the same: starve the virus of new hosts. It would work if we had 10 times the number of infections. It would have taken longer to get rid of it, and cost more, but it would work just the same.

But could NZ have afforded to be locked down any longer ? People were already at the end of their teather and things were slipping.

UK have essentially been in lockdown for months but it hasn't worked over there. All it has done is suppress the virus. Italy too were in a big lockdown but elimination was not practically possible.

Also one reason it worked in Nz was the high amount of compliance

Oblivian

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#2512525 25-Jun-2020 21:32

Couple of hours ago, there was a story from 'scientists' saying prepare for more positivies.

Next minute.. rinse and repeat the big red banner breaking headline.. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12343140

Auckland Novotel Ellerslie in lockdown, guests told one among them has tested positive for Covid-19

Hyping things? no, nevveeerrrr

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DS248

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#2512547 26-Jun-2020 00:22

Singapore continuing to steadily reduce case numbers following the severe CV19 outbreak in migrant worker dormitories in April. And still ramping up their response.

Vs USA case numbers ramping up since early June following a slow but steady decline over the preceding two months.

mattwnz

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#2512550 26-Jun-2020 01:03

concordnz:

Agreed 100% (with frankv)
(As long as there is no proven animal transfer)

Any country Can/& Still Could do EXACTLY the same lock down as what we NZ did & achieve full elimination.

(It's simply a matter of having a protocol which ensures 100% compliance with the lockdown rules & elimination of 'rule breakers' )

As has been said before.
*The virus doesn't move - PEOPLE move/spread the virus.

Can it though, because if that was the case, wouldn't the UK have gotten close to elimination too. They went into lockdown far later, after initially going down the herd immunity route. But they have been in lockdown far longer than NZ, and their numbers continue to be poor. It is tapering off slowly, but it looks like it could take a very long time to clear it at teh current rate. Plus they are opening thing up, so it will likely get worse again. Countries rely on a level of essential workers, so there is quite a lot of the population that have to work and may spread the virus, especially if there was already a lot of CT occurring, and they bring it home to their families. Whereas NZ went into lockdown at a stage when we had very limited CT occurring. That mixed with high compliance, and low numbers all helped IMO to eliminate it.

Even Australia could have potentially eliminated it, but they had no elimination policy, and still don't, and now they seem to be having a second wave in some states.

Theoretically yes, it is possible if all countries to eliminate it, if everyone isolates and starves the virus of new host. CHina has proven this too, with a more heavy handed approach to get people to comply. But practicality wise, it isn't really possible for many countries because it cripples their economies, and people wouldn't stand being rounded up. If it was easy, wouldn't far more countries have done it? Many countries like the US are saying that they will just live with the virus. They will open up, but live a restricted life, physically distancing and masks, to try and keep numbers low, until maybe a vaccine comes along. There are some encouraging signs in that area, but you never know.

frankv

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#2512556 26-Jun-2020 06:59

mattwnz:
concordnz:

Agreed 100% (with frankv)
(As long as there is no proven animal transfer)

Any country Can/& Still Could do EXACTLY the same lock down as what we NZ did & achieve full elimination.

(It's simply a matter of having a protocol which ensures 100% compliance with the lockdown rules & elimination of 'rule breakers' )

As has been said before.
*The virus doesn't move - PEOPLE move/spread the virus.

Can it though, because if that was the case, wouldn't the UK have gotten close to elimination too. They went into lockdown far later, after initially going down the herd immunity route. But they have been in lockdown far longer than NZ, and their numbers continue to be poor. It is tapering off slowly, but it looks like it could take a very long time to clear it at teh current rate. Plus they are opening thing up, so it will likely get worse

I agree that compliance with lockdown, especially longer term, becomes increasingly difficult. Not impossible though... but that cann be encouraged by better communications, so that the plan is clear and the consequences of failure also clear, and enforcement for the non-compliant. But that depends on the political will to do what's needed. And I suspect that the political will just isn't there in the UK, and the change of plan undermines the communication.

floydbloke

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#2512560 26-Jun-2020 07:36

freitasm:

I haven't watched this earlier...

So the guy who broke the lockdown twice decides to kick the guy who actually did the good work?

Damn you David Clark.

In a 1 News poll yesterday apparently one person had David Clark as preferred prime minister.

Given a sample size of just over 1000 from, say, 3 odd million eligible phone-numbers/people, that made the odds of Colmar Brunton phoning his mum 1:3000. Quite the coincidence 😛

Sometimes I use big words I don't always fully understand in an effort to make myself sound more photosynthesis.

freitasm

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#2512584 26-Jun-2020 08:42

mattwnz: UK have essentially been in lockdown for months but it hasn't worked over there. All it has done is suppress the virus. Italy too were in a big lockdown but elimination was not practically possible.

Also one reason it worked in Nz was the high amount of compliance

I think the UK lockdown was a joke compared to New Zealand Alert Level 4.

You have the answer in your last sentence.

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freitasm

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#2512585 26-Jun-2020 08:43

Oblivian:

Couple of hours ago, there was a story from 'scientists' saying prepare for more positivies.

Next minute.. rinse and repeat the big red banner breaking headline.. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12343140

Hyping things? no, nevveeerrrr

Breaking news! People coming from disease hotspot may have positive results when tested for disease.

Folks... We are past this. We know there was some stupid people doing stupid things. The hole is plugged (it seems). Whatever shows up now, if not in the community, would be expected.

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#2512589 26-Jun-2020 08:52

floydbloke:

In a 1 News poll yesterday apparently one person had David Clark as preferred prime minister.

I don't think it matters where you fall on the political spectrum, it looks like the entire country is unified when it comes to David Clark.

GV27

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#2512616 26-Jun-2020 09:20

Could be some fun bits and pieces today - another round of cabinet papers relating to the response released.

Given the last one was released Friday afternoon and this has been released in the morning, I'm not expecting anything politically explosive compared to the last one.

Always interesting to see who was saying what and when.

Geektastic

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#2512637 26-Jun-2020 10:15

mattwnz:

concordnz:

Agreed 100% (with frankv)
(As long as there is no proven animal transfer)

Any country Can/& Still Could do EXACTLY the same lock down as what we NZ did & achieve full elimination.

(It's simply a matter of having a protocol which ensures 100% compliance with the lockdown rules & elimination of 'rule breakers' )

As has been said before.
*The virus doesn't move - PEOPLE move/spread the virus.

Can it though, because if that was the case, wouldn't the UK have gotten close to elimination too. They went into lockdown far later, after initially going down the herd immunity route. But they have been in lockdown far longer than NZ, and their numbers continue to be poor. It is tapering off slowly, but it looks like it could take a very long time to clear it at teh current rate. Plus they are opening thing up, so it will likely get worse again. Countries rely on a level of essential workers, so there is quite a lot of the population that have to work and may spread the virus, especially if there was already a lot of CT occurring, and they bring it home to their families. Whereas NZ went into lockdown at a stage when we had very limited CT occurring. That mixed with high compliance, and low numbers all helped IMO to eliminate it.

Even Australia could have potentially eliminated it, but they had no elimination policy, and still don't, and now they seem to be having a second wave in some states.

Theoretically yes, it is possible if all countries to eliminate it, if everyone isolates and starves the virus of new host. CHina has proven this too, with a more heavy handed approach to get people to comply. But practicality wise, it isn't really possible for many countries because it cripples their economies, and people wouldn't stand being rounded up. If it was easy, wouldn't far more countries have done it? Many countries like the US are saying that they will just live with the virus. They will open up, but live a restricted life, physically distancing and masks, to try and keep numbers low, until maybe a vaccine comes along. There are some encouraging signs in that area, but you never know.

It seems to me, based on conversations with people living in the UK, that their 'lockdown' was a relaxed affair in comparison to ours - they seemed able to do far more than we could.

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