2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2565952 16-Sep-2020 13:29

@shk292:

...

I'd be interested to know how many inbound passengers are arriving at Vietnam's borders every week. My guess would be "very few". Ditto for the Pacific islands. That's our Achilles Heel - the number of people flooding into NZ and the inescapable law of probability that says it will cause outbreaks. But we have chosen to enable relatively easy travel into NZ despite the pandemic so that is a consequence we have to live with and minimise.

I do not know the total passengers per week but it is most definitely not "very few".

According to Flight Radar, there are something like 10 international airports in Vietnam. In the 24 hours from ~7am today (Vietnam time), there are/were ~28 scheduled incoming international flights into Hanoi and ~26 into Ho Chi Minh City; ie. 54 incoming international flights in the next 24 hours for just two of the 10 airports (did not bother checking the rest). Includes flights from China, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Philippines, Qatar, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and UAE.

Outside of the next 24 hours will be flights from many other countries, including Russia which has been the source of many of Vietnam's imported cases (recently and in the past). Other significant sources of imported cases in Vietnam include Dubai, Bangladesh, Kuwait, USA, UK, and Ukraine.

In addition to the above, Vietnam has land borders with several other countries and a number of their past imported infections have come in via land border crossings (including at least one infected young man who 'snuck in' illegally via a mountain trail and was not found until several days later).

By comparison, for Auckland there are 17 incoming flights scheduled (24 hours from ~midday), those being from Australia, Canada, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, USA, and Western Samoa.

Some of the flights are freight only (one into AKL is Tasman Cargo Airlines). Possibly many, at least in the case of NZ? Also do not know how many passengers per flight (NZ or Vietnam)

There is nothing special about our situation at all in respect to imported cases.

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#2565972 16-Sep-2020 13:49

DS248:

I do not know the total passengers per week but it is most definitely not "very few".

According to Flight Radar, there are something like 10 international airports in Vietnam. In the 24 hours from ~7am today (Vietnam time), there are/were ~28 scheduled incoming international flights into Hanoi and ~26 into Ho Chi Minh City; ie. 54 incoming international flights in the next 24 hours for just two of the 10 airports (did not bother checking the rest). Includes flights from China, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Philippines, Qatar, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and UAE.

Outside of the next 24 hours will be flights from many other countries, including Russia which has been the source of many of Vietnam's imported cases (recently and in the past). Other significant sources of imported cases in Vietnam include Dubai, Bangladesh, Kuwait, USA, UK, and Ukraine.

In addition to the above, Vietnam has land borders with several other countries and a number of their past imported infections have come in via land border crossings (including at least one infected young man who 'snuck in' illegally via a mountain trail and was not found until several days later).

By comparison, for Auckland there are 17 incoming flights scheduled (24 hours from ~midday), those being from Australia, Canada, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, USA, and Western Samoa.

Some of the flights are freight only (one into AKL is Tasman Cargo Airlines). Possibly many, at least in the case of NZ? Also do not know how many passengers per flight (NZ or Vietnam)

==

There is nothing special about our situation at all in respect to imported cases.

That's fascinating, thanks - a credit to Vietnam that they are controlling this so well

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#2565985 16-Sep-2020 14:11

DS248:
@shk292:

...

I'd be interested to know how many inbound passengers are arriving at Vietnam's borders every week. My guess would be "very few". Ditto for the Pacific islands. That's our Achilles Heel - the number of people flooding into NZ and the inescapable law of probability that says it will cause outbreaks. But we have chosen to enable relatively easy travel into NZ despite the pandemic so that is a consequence we have to live with and minimise.

I do not know the total passengers per week but it is most definitely not "very few".

According to Flight Radar, there are something like 10 international airports in Vietnam. In the 24 hours from ~7am today (Vietnam time), there are/were ~28 scheduled incoming international flights into Hanoi and ~26 into Ho Chi Minh City; ie. 54 incoming international flights in the next 24 hours for just two of the 10 airports (did not bother checking the rest). Includes flights from China, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Philippines, Qatar, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and UAE.

Outside of the next 24 hours will be flights from many other countries, including Russia which has been the source of many of Vietnam's imported cases (recently and in the past). Other significant sources of imported cases in Vietnam include Dubai, Bangladesh, Kuwait, USA, UK, and Ukraine.

In addition to the above, Vietnam has land borders with several other countries and a number of their past imported infections have come in via land border crossings (including at least one infected young man who 'snuck in' illegally via a mountain trail and was not found until several days later).

By comparison, for Auckland there are 17 incoming flights scheduled (24 hours from ~midday), those being from Australia, Canada, China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, USA, and Western Samoa.

Some of the flights are freight only (one into AKL is Tasman Cargo Airlines). Possibly many, at least in the case of NZ? Also do not know how many passengers per flight (NZ or Vietnam)

==

There is nothing special about our situation at all in respect to imported cases.

Can our MOH give them a call to find out how they do it?

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#2566055 16-Sep-2020 15:52

Send this link to the MoH on what Vietnam is doing :)

In short:

14 day Hotel quarantine for most people upon entry to country - fees charged for quarantine (seems Business Trips and similar of less than 14 days no quarantine).
Localized lock-down of cities with cases.
Compulsory mask wearing for all.
Just now starting to open up passenger flights with some countries again (eg Japan)

Sounds fairly similar NZ all in all. Maybe we should push the masks more - but not sure that is the MoH fault really.
Joe Public is resistant to mask wearing.

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#2566111 16-Sep-2020 17:45

@DS248:

I do not know the total passengers per week but it is most definitely not "very few".

Media reports this week say 50,000 New Zealanders have returned so far since the pandemic started.

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#2566125 16-Sep-2020 18:28

Scott3: When you talk of current resident status, this isn't really a principal in immigration.

Tax Resident would be the closest match, but that is really just to decide where you pay income tax, not which countries you can enter.

Tax residency is complex, but typically it's the country where someone has spent 6 months and a day.

It gets really ugly because each country determines when a tax year starts. in the US it's starts 1 January. In New Zealand it starts 1 April. So somone could easily be tax resident of two countries for a number of months.

So your status is based on a year's history, the past, not the present or future.

If someone was bouncing between several countries, I assume the last country where you had tax residency would win.

Anyhow, not really workable for Covid restrictions

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#2566169 16-Sep-2020 18:46

Batman:Can our MOH give them a call to find out how they do it?

Maybe you can advise MoH, and the other armchair experts here.

Is Level 2.5 ok, or maybe need 4?

Ban all Kiwis?

Manage the economy alongside health, or just forget the economy and look after health?

Its easy from the anonymous armchair

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#2566176 16-Sep-2020 18:55

KrazyKid:
Send this link to the MoH on what Vietnam is doing :)

In short:

14 day Hotel quarantine for most people upon entry to country - fees charged for quarantine (seems Business Trips and similar of less than 14 days no quarantine).
Localized lock-down of cities with cases.
Compulsory mask wearing for all.
Just now starting to open up passenger flights with some countries again (eg Japan)

Sounds fairly similar NZ all in all. Maybe we should push the masks more - but not sure that is the MoH fault really.
Joe Public is resistant to mask wearing.

In order to get people to wear them, it has to be compulsory. Other countries are making it compulsory. People aren't going to wear them if none else is and they see the risk is low. I have hardly seen anyone wearing them around town.

DS248

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#2566180 16-Sep-2020 19:07

Oh dear, this isn't finished yet 😟

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300109163/coronavirus-south-auckland-primary-school-pupil-tests-positive-for-covid19

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#2566184 16-Sep-2020 19:16

freitasm:

@DS248:

I do not know the total passengers per week but it is most definitely not "very few".

Media reports this week say 50,000 New Zealanders have returned so far since the pandemic started.

In terms of arrivals there were:

741,000 in January
562,000 in February
310,000 in March
6386 in April
5577 in May
9166 in June
9037 in July
11,271 in August
5,625 as of Tuesday 15 Sept

It looks like we've had about 25,000 more departures than arrivals so far this year, it still looks like there are more departures happening than arrivals.

(source - Customs NZ)

tdgeek

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#2566188 16-Sep-2020 19:19

DS248:

Oh dear, this isn't finished yet 😟

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300109163/coronavirus-south-auckland-primary-school-pupil-tests-positive-for-covid19

How?

Irregardless of all the advice, to do this and do that, the human psyche is over it. I can't blame Aucklanders as this could have been anywhere here or any other country who have the same issues. Hence the tail will be long, as March Level 4 is not the same as August/September level anything. The option is accept a lingering long tail or go to Level 4. To counter this there should be enforcement. Education and whatever the three E's were was fine in March, but it needs to be more now, just to counter the laggards.

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#2566192 16-Sep-2020 19:30

tdgeek:
DS248:

Oh dear, this isn't finished yet 😟

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300109163/coronavirus-south-auckland-primary-school-pupil-tests-positive-for-covid19

by
How?

Irregardless of all the advice, to do this and do that, the human psyche is over it. I can't blame Aucklanders as this could have been anywhere here or any other country who have the same issues. Hence the tail will be long, as March Level 4 is not the same as August/September level anything. The option is accept a lingering long tail or go to Level 4. To counter this there should be enforcement. Education and whatever the three E's were was fine in March, but it needs to be more now, just to counter the laggards.

I think the point being made was that a child that was symptomatic was dropped off at school in an infectious state. Instead of being kept at home and referring to their health care professional they went to school.
The school identified that the child was unwell and the caregiver picked up the child within 30 minutes.
Meanwhile 3 other close contacts would have attended the school all day (results at 2pm), other close contacts presymptomactic.

Despite education, despite constant media messaging an unwell child was sent to school. Not a tail but potential for another outbreak.

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#2566200 16-Sep-2020 19:47

DS248:

Oh dear, this isn't finished yet 😟

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300109163/coronavirus-south-auckland-primary-school-pupil-tests-positive-for-covid19

FTA: "The child returned a positive test result later that day."

This to me tells the child was tested one or two days before - in which case the child should've been kept at home, as recommended when you are tested. And also the family - what were they doing driving around? Or was the child tested AFTER leaving school and results came same day?

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#2566212 16-Sep-2020 20:06

freitasm:

DS248:

Oh dear, this isn't finished yet 😟

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300109163/coronavirus-south-auckland-primary-school-pupil-tests-positive-for-covid19

FTA: "The child returned a positive test result later that day."

This to me tells the child was tested one or two days before - in which case the child should've been kept at home, as recommended when you are tested. And also the family - what were they doing driving around? Or was the child tested AFTER leaving school and results came same day?

Yea I'm willing to bet that there's going to be a few families who still send kids to school and keep going to supermarkets or bottleshops after getting test - who just really won't give a damn or actually be isolating properly. And the more contacts of contacts we dig up, the more likely it is someone who is positive just ends up taking the piss and we're back to square one - assuming they don't then go to visit relatives down country or travel during the school holidays. Because why wouldn't you?

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#2566213 16-Sep-2020 20:08

Shaking my damn head. Idiots. All of them.

People keep saying "it's not their fault" but that only applies to people who takes precautions. Anyone acting like an idiot is totally at fault.

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