NZ 2023 Election Thread

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#3145542 12-Oct-2023 07:25

https://www.1news.co.nz/2023/10/11/poll-labour-lifts-and-greens-strong-peters-has-decision-to-make/

The full results of the poll from the above image:

National – 37% (up 1%)
Labour – 28% (up 2%)
Green – 14% (up 1%)
ACT – 9% (down 1%)
New Zealand First – 6% (steady)
The Opportunities Party (TOP) – 2% (steady)
Te Pāti Māori – 2% (steady)
New Zealand Loyal – 1% (steady)
Freedoms New Zealand – 1% (steady)
New Zeal – 1% (steady)
DemocracyNZ – 1% (up 1%)
Don't know or refused to answer – 9% (down 1%)

I saw someone say "they should have united, they would be at 4% and have a shot at Parliament".

Fortunately, there are far too many egos in that, uh, "group" for that to ever happen 👍

SaltyNZ

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#3145553 12-Oct-2023 08:23

Reanalyse:

So if you want/need change,

The one thing you are guaranteed not to get if you put Winston in charge is change. NZF is the 'make sure the government can't do anything' party.

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evilengineer

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#3145597 12-Oct-2023 09:57

Reanalyse:

Is it support for Winston. or is a protest vote in that everyone else is equally bad or worse ? So if you want/need change, but really dislike Luxon and Willis and are scared of what Seymour would do then is the best option is to go for a spoiler ? Or as I will do, vote for the local MP who I quite like, and leave the party choice blank and invalid ?

Hard to tell who's supporting Winston. There's his Grey Power crowd who'll keep voting for him until he dies (unless they die first, of course), there's the conspiracy wingnuts he's being chasing and there's definitely a fair few voting for him as a spoiler/spanner in the works.

No doubt there will have been Labour voters staring at a National/ACT coalition deciding that at least Winston would stuff things up for them or at least slow them down.

Perhaps some of those will come back to Labour if they see things as being not quite as hopeless as before. Who knows?

Anyway, I think National should be careful what they wish for, a pure National/ACT coalition could make itself VERY unpopular very quickly if it implemented too many of ACT's out there policies. Not to mention the train wreck fiscal policies. A Winston handbrake could be the best thing for them.

ezbee

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#3145605 12-Oct-2023 10:37

As for MMP negotiations.

At least any delay in Government formation will give people at the bottom end of car market who buy a small hybrid, or Leaf.
More time to get one wih a discount before the door shuts ?

For Nat, ACT, NZF...
They will actually have things they broadly agree on and that will get done, and crazier stuff gets filtered out.
NZF, ACT, National are at a core conservative, and have more in common than they would like voters to recognise.
Speaking of Mirrors, Maybe they don't like looking in the mirror?

If that's what electorate wants, then so be it.

Auckland elected Wayne Brown, so 'grumpy', 'short fuse', 'its easy I have all the answers', 'no I'm not telling you the detail'
'I do interviews on my terms if at all' does not seem to be that unpopular. :-)

Maybe Winston should take up tennis to improve his profile?

evilengineer

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#3145713 12-Oct-2023 11:42

ezbee:

Auckland elected Wayne Brown, so 'grumpy', 'short fuse', 'its easy I have all the answers', 'no I'm not telling you the detail'
'I do interviews on my terms if at all' does not seem to be that unpopular. :-)

Wayne Brown = Cautionary tale for apathetic voters on what a low turn out can get you.

tdgeek

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#3145718 12-Oct-2023 11:57

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2023/10/election-2023-am-s-ryan-bridge-thinks-labour-leader-chris-hipkins-might-have-to-make-tough-phone-call-on-saturday.html

"This means Labour would get 35 seats, the Greens 19 and Te Pāti Māori three, as long as they hold onto an electorate. That gives the left bloc 57 seats.

On the right, National would get 43 seats and ACT 11 - a total of 54 seats."

In any case it's a fait accompli as NZF is only targeting National/ACT, so its effectively done and dusted.

Interesting that the apparent horror show of Labour's Coalition of Chaos according to some of these threads, is ahead of National/ACT's Coalition of Chaos

Either way we will get a CoC! :-)

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MikeB4

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#3145720 12-Oct-2023 12:07

The elections are going to drag on for months. Aotearoa is going to get a taste of Australian, UK and Italian politics.

A world that has gone totally insane.

sir1963

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#3145721 12-Oct-2023 12:17

MikeB4: The elections are going to drag on for months. Aotearoa is going to get a taste of Australian, UK and Italian politics.

Better that than US politics.

And so long as the religious wing nuts get left out of it.

MikeB4

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#3145724 12-Oct-2023 12:28

sir1963:
MikeB4: The elections are going to drag on for months. Aotearoa is going to get a taste of Australian, UK and Italian politics.

Better that than US politics.

And so long as the religious wing nuts get left out of it.

I think anarchy is better than the US political system

A world that has gone totally insane.

quickymart

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#3145798 12-Oct-2023 14:41

As long as the "freedoms" crowd don't get anywhere near Parliament, I'm happy.

Zigg

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#3145800 12-Oct-2023 14:49

Oh dear

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/499988/former-allies-sue-grey-and-liz-gunn-in-electorate-turf-war

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ezbee

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#3145801 12-Oct-2023 14:52

I expect that everything ticks along while MMP negotiations continue.

Its not like the 'Economic Night of Long Knives' that the post Muldoon Government faced.

Maybe the predictability of nothing much happening for a while might even be good for markets.

The new fashion of the 100 days of having to show fevered activity, might be nice for ministries to have time to have some real data ready.

The main embarrassment for Parliament as a whole might be how smooth things go without constant prodding. :-)

evilengineer

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#3145804 12-Oct-2023 15:48

MikeB4: The elections are going to drag on for months. Aotearoa is going to get a taste of Australian, UK and Italian politics.

Hope not.

Taking the UK as an example:

Competent Labour government with a not exactly charismatic leader is voted out despite pulling the country through a once in a lifetime financial crisis (and preventing a collapse of the whole banking system) because it's "time for a change", ushering in a coalition government hell bent on massive cuts and thirteen years of monumental mismanagement (not least Brexit) by an increasingly right wing Tory party. With the end result being a country where everything is either breaking down or is already broken.

Not much fun there.

Handle9

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#3145811 12-Oct-2023 15:54

ezbee:

I expect that everything ticks along while MMP negotiations continue.

Its not like the 'Economic Night of Long Knives' that the post Muldoon Government faced.

Maybe the predictability of nothing much happening for a while might even be good for markets.

The new fashion of the 100 days of having to show fevered activity, might be nice for ministries to have time to have some real data ready.

The main embarrassment for Parliament as a whole might be how smooth things go without constant prodding. :-)

The coalition agreement will get done fairly quickly and the first year or two will probably be pretty straightforward. It's always the third year where it becomes tricky.

quickymart

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#3145815 12-Oct-2023 16:07

Zigg: Oh dear

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/political/499988/former-allies-sue-grey-and-liz-gunn-in-electorate-turf-war

You beat me to it! Long may they continue their in-fighting and turning against each other, it's highly satisfying to watch 😀

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