NZ 2023 Election Thread

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#3155666 4-Nov-2023 09:20

I'm looking in the wrong places it seems. (Hidden behind paywalls?)
All I see in news reports are articles about personalities and not liking each other.
There maybe throwaway lines about difficulties meshing policy.

However...

I don't see any specifics of what policies mesh and what does not and how important this is?
https://www.nzfirst.nz/2023_policies

This seems to align well with ACT for example.
"Rule out working with any political party that promotes separatism."
ACT would probably have to do the same re withdrawal from UN conventions to get its ditch the treaty too.

End vaccine mandates is a bit moot now but they both agree and complained about them?
The ending working with WHO is a bit out there, but I expect NZF would not live or die on that.

4 year Parliamentary term referendum would not seem to be a thing ACT would especially oppose.
Maybe they would prefer a bold move to just do 'order in council'.

Lower Inflation and No light rail seem to be on the same song-sheet?

Tough on crime, who isn't

The policies aimed at retirees and raising minimum wage, not taxing income below X dollars
would be a definite no for ACT National as far as I see, but would NZF live and die on that?

Anyone seen analysis of the likely sticking points.
ACT also has some stuff I expect that National don't really want too ?
The 'Don Brash' eliminating the treaty would be going nowhere, I don't see National buying that trouble.
NZF would seem to go along with ACT well on that though?

Wombat1

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#3155671 4-Nov-2023 09:37

Bluntj:

Moving to Australia to live is now becoming a very real prospect for so many reasons. My special thanks to Labour for making it so much easier.

Moving to Australia has always been very easy for Kiwis. Kiwis have always been able to just move here, live and work. No other country has it as good as the kiwis have had it if they want to move here.

The recent changes have nothing to do with allowing kiwis to move and work here, the recent changes are all about gaining citizenship more easily.

The citizenship process is Aus is difficult for everyone, not just kiwis. It favors highly skilled, highly qualified people over low-skilled, under-qualified people. I had no issues with this really. But hey the new changes are great because now we don't have to apply for residency to gain citizenship (over $4000) to get citizenship, its just 4 years and $540.

quickymart

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#3155697 4-Nov-2023 10:02

ezbee:

I'm looking in the wrong places it seems. (Hidden behind paywalls?)
All I see in news reports are articles about personalities and not liking each other.
There maybe throwaway lines about difficulties meshing policy.

However...

I don't see any specifics of what policies mesh and what does not and how important this is?
https://www.nzfirst.nz/2023_policies

This seems to align well with ACT for example.
"Rule out working with any political party that promotes separatism."
ACT would probably have to do the same re withdrawal from UN conventions to get its ditch the treaty too.

End vaccine mandates is a bit moot now but they both agree and complained about them?
The ending working with WHO is a bit out there, but I expect NZF would not live or die on that.

4 year Parliamentary term referendum would not seem to be a thing ACT would especially oppose.
Maybe they would prefer a bold move to just do 'order in council'.

Lower Inflation and No light rail seem to be on the same song-sheet?

Tough on crime, who isn't

The policies aimed at retirees and raising minimum wage, not taxing income below X dollars
would be a definite no for ACT National as far as I see, but would NZF live and die on that?

Anyone seen analysis of the likely sticking points.
ACT also has some stuff I expect that National don't really want too ?
The 'Don Brash' eliminating the treaty would be going nowhere, I don't see National buying that trouble.
NZF would seem to go along with ACT well on that though?

Bomber does a little bit here: https://thedailyblog.co.nz/2023/11/03/specials-are-in-old-zealand-beats-new-zealand-election-2023-winners-losers-best-worst-predictions/

Winston won’t lift the Foreign Buyers Ban and National have built their entire economic package on their Foreign Buyers Tax.

David wants his race baiting referendum and Luxon doesn’t.

Winston wants a provincial slush fund, David despises it.

David wants tax cuts, Winston has ruled them out.

National wants tax cuts, Winston has ruled them out too.

The only things they all agree on is bashing beneficiaries, paramilitary police force against gangs and a massive increase in prisons.

How inspirational.

Wombat1

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#3155700 4-Nov-2023 10:40

Sounds to me like a government including the Maori party will be easier than putting anything together with Winston.

This reminds me of 2017 all over again. Celebrations on Nationals win but an eerie silence from Winston, then boom.

I wonder if anything is going on behind the scenes in putting together a Labour/Greens/Maori/NZ First goverment. Its all about Winston at this point, and Labour would probably throw a lot more at him than National. MMP is really flawed if a government can be decided by a minority party.

tdgeek

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#3155701 4-Nov-2023 10:45

Wombat1:

Sounds to me like a government including the Maori party will be easier than putting anything together with Winston.

This reminds me of 2017 all over again. Celebrations on Nationals win but an eerie silence from Winston, then boom.

I wonder if anything is going on behind the scenes in putting together a Labour/Greens/Maori/NZ First party. Its all about Winston at this point, and Labour would probably throw a lot more at him that National. MMP is really flawed if a government can be decided by a minority party.

They both ruled each other out.

MMP, Labour had less than National in 2017. Its about a majority Government than any party

Wombat1

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#3155702 4-Nov-2023 10:47

tdgeek:

They both ruled each other out.

You don't know that until Winston makes his "announcement" on the new government.

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quickymart

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#3155703 4-Nov-2023 10:51

Will recounts in the really close electorates make any difference to the final result?

Bluntj

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#3155711 4-Nov-2023 12:06

I'm assuming if National can't get a livable agreement or a stable partnership, he can call on the Governor General for a new election?

gzt

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#3155731 4-Nov-2023 14:31

ezbee

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#3155804 4-Nov-2023 15:23

Elections are very expensive for taxpayer and new campaigns expensive for donors.

Worst case.
Government is possible with NZF on cross benches with vote for Nat/ACT confidence, supply and procedural items.
NZF can then pick and choose on what other legislation to support item by item, without strings of prior agreement.

Its very unlikely NZF would decline to support supply, confidence.
Backlash for being seen as reason for creating need for a new election would dissuade.

This is probably worse than having NZF in the tent with a formal agreement you can wave if someone breaks it.

National/ACT could say that supply is not enough.
Once again electorate 'and their financiers' may be 'very' unhappy if ACT/National choose not to try to Govern.
Cost of another election is not small, and its more campaigning too to finance.

Government and Governing is a lot about compromise.
MMP even more so, and electorate expects that even if political commentators don't.
How many times does hard fought legislation not get reversed.
Thank goodness they did it not us, they might say over drinks.

ACT is making 'cooing noises' at the moment :-)
NZF would want the profile and additional funding of being in Government so 'egos apart' practical reasons to compromise.

Things can tick over for quite a few months without Beehive playing with the controls.

Handle9

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#3155808 4-Nov-2023 15:38

quickymart:
Will recounts in the really close electorates make any difference to the final result?

Not overall. The number of MPs won’t change unless Te Pati Maori lose a seat.

Who those MPs are might change (from list to electorate).

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quickymart

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#3155809 4-Nov-2023 15:40

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/national-and-act-lose-majority-in-final-vote-count >> indeed.

tdgeek

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#3155905 4-Nov-2023 18:44

ezbee:

Elections are very expensive for taxpayer and new campaigns expensive for donors.

Worst case.
Government is possible with NZF on cross benches with vote for Nat/ACT confidence, supply and procedural items.
NZF can then pick and choose on what other legislation to support item by item, without strings of prior agreement.

Its very unlikely NZF would decline to support supply, confidence.
Backlash for being seen as reason for creating need for a new election would dissuade.

This is probably worse than having NZF in the tent with a formal agreement you can wave if someone breaks it.

National/ACT could say that supply is not enough.
Once again electorate 'and their financiers' may be 'very' unhappy if ACT/National choose not to try to Govern.
Cost of another election is not small, and its more campaigning too to finance.

Government and Governing is a lot about compromise.
MMP even more so, and electorate expects that even if political commentators don't.
How many times does hard fought legislation not get reversed.
Thank goodness they did it not us, they might say over drinks.

ACT is making 'cooing noises' at the moment :-)
NZF would want the profile and additional funding of being in Government so 'egos apart' practical reasons to compromise.

Things can tick over for quite a few months without Beehive playing with the controls.

I have a low opinion of Luxon. He is an amateur in Parliament. Seymour wants to move ACT from a minor party to a real party. Winston does Winston.

But Luxon isn't stupid. Neither is Seymour. If Peters wants to slay the tiger, and Nat/ACT need to give in somewhat then it is what it is AS LONG AS they get supply from NZF. If that occurred and Nat/ACT cannot get anything done, (as Coinfidence was not given) I'd have no issue with that, even though both are poor. Not their fault. It will tell voters that yes public servants get paid, pension gets paid, but its a waste of 3 years, so remove NZFirst, as they are NZLast. Id give credit to Luxon and Seymour if they put, ironically NZ first, but not NZ First.

quickymart

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#3156030 4-Nov-2023 22:37

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/03-11-2023/thirteen-buzzy-bits-of-trivia-about-the-final-election-results >> some useless (or maybe not-so-useless) facts and figures from the election results.

SaltyNZ

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#3156071 5-Nov-2023 08:45

tdgeek:

I have a low opinion of Luxon. He is an amateur in Parliament. Seymour wants to move ACT from a minor party to a real party. Winston does Winston.

But Luxon isn't stupid.

I wouldn't say stupid, but I think his background makes him think he is smarter than he is.

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These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

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