2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2435432 10-Mar-2020 07:42

Fred99:

There's two critical cases, for all I know they could be hooked up to ECMO machines and dialysis at the same time, and have no chance of recovery - but even if they die, the stats from Germany are still an outlier.

To estimate this, you need to know the medical (pre-)history and their age. The permanent risk (in general for such kind of infections) for 80+ is still 15%.

>>> Coming back to the two mentioned critical cases - unfortunately they have died today.

- Age 89, female, pneumonia caused by the corona virus.

- Age 78, male, pre-existing conditions were diabetes and coronal heart disease.

Sad to say but those two cases are covered by the 15% statistical risk and/or the 2% risk for people with pre-existing condition and an age below 80yrs.

Qui nihil scit, omnia credere debet.
Firewalls do NOT stop dragons.
In effect we have everything to hide from someone, and no idea who someone is.

MikeB4

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#2435434 10-Mar-2020 07:47

The flow on into Kiwi Saver will have a long term affect on the value of those savings(investments). The share investments are real value. This plunge will take several years to recover. The NZSX is not known for rapid recovery. It's easy to fob it off as "paper money" but the consequences are real and will be felt throughout Aotearoa. It affects the ability for our corporations to raise capital and to secure funding this flows into employment, growth and future planned projects.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

mudguard

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#2435443 10-Mar-2020 08:13

MikeB4:

The flow on into Kiwi Saver will have a long term affect on the value of those savings(investments). The share investments are real value. This plunge will take several years to recover. The NZSX is not known for rapid recovery. It's easy to fob it off as "paper money" but the consequences are real and will be felt throughout Aotearoa. It affects the ability for our corporations to raise capital and to secure funding this flows into employment, growth and future planned projects.

Without misdirecting the thread too much. I've been looking to buy a house for over a year now, and have had my fund in a cash/conservative mix, because I need to know exactly how much of it will make up my deposit. A couple of weeks ago I was thinking of the lost gains from being in such a conservative fund. I hope it's still ok now.

NB I was in growth funds the entire time prior to changing. The market is such a fickle thing to have to rely on.

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#2435446 10-Mar-2020 08:25

mudguard:

Without misdirecting the thread too much. I've been looking to buy a house for over a year now, and have had my fund in a cash/conservative mix, because I need to know exactly how much of it will make up my deposit. A couple of weeks ago I was thinking of the lost gains from being in such a conservative fund. I hope it's still ok now.

NB I was in growth funds the entire time prior to changing. The market is such a fickle thing to have to rely on.

IMO its very much on topic. The effects of Covid-19 are not just re the infected, its most everyone in some form or another.

heavenlywild

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#2435447 10-Mar-2020 08:29

It is looking promising for South Korea - only 165 new cases yesterday.

What has been interesting to me is the steep decline in new cases when containment starts to work.

Fred99

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#2435450 10-Mar-2020 08:35

mudguard:

The market is such a fickle thing to have to rely on.

Yep. There's a whole generation of people who've never seen it before and have been telling each other it can't happen.
This time it's very interesting. The entire yield curve inverted for the first time in history, the drop from the market high is the steepest in history, there aren't many arrows left in the quiver. Basically everyone is exposed via "401K" in the US and similar schemes such as Kiwisaver in NZ, Aus, UK, everywhere.

BNZ economist on RNZ news before saying it's just a "shock" not a cyclical downturn. LOL - I don't know - and neither does he.

Anyway - whatever with "the markets" - they are NOT "the economy". NZ is going to have to pull together to get through this Covid thing

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Fred99

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#2435451 10-Mar-2020 08:43

heavenlywild:

It is looking promising for South Korea - only 165 new cases yesterday.

What has been interesting to me is the steep decline in new cases when containment starts to work.

Yes - so long as the figures are accurate. Someone prepared and updates a good chart on Wikipedia with a log case # scale. Growth remains exponential outside China (straight lines). China's official stats show how they contained it.

(I suspect it's probably far worse than it looks though, as cases probably aren't being confirmed or counted accurately anywhere - apart from the developed world).

Batman

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#2435478 10-Mar-2020 09:47

frankv:
Sidestep: The Saudis need $70 oil long term)

Getting off topic, but oil isn't long term. Every increase (or even maintaining the current price) will push people towards EVs, and a reduction in oil demand. Saudi Arabia needs to sell all their oil while there is still a demand for it.

i don't know about your logic. IMO bottom dollar oil = more people drive ICE?

apparently down 7c today ...

tdgeek

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#2435482 10-Mar-2020 09:49

ALL the population in Italy are now in lockdown, more to come

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#2435483 10-Mar-2020 09:50

Fred99:
This time it's very interesting.

This time it's different.

DS248

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#2435484 10-Mar-2020 09:50

The most recent figures for European countries and continuing large increases in cases in Italy suggest we are but at the start of this. And now increasing numbers of countries in Africa are reporting cases.

Tougher actions starting to be taken at last https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51809818

I still see Taiwan as one of the standout performers in preventing spread of the virus, though it does not seem to get much mention

https://healthpolicy.fsi.stanford.edu/news/how-taiwan-used-big-data-transparency-central-command-protect-its-people-coronavirus

And that is despite WHO playing political games https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/02/28/taiwan-who-coronavirus-china-international-organizations/

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MikeB4

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#2435488 10-Mar-2020 09:56

tdgeek:
ALL the population in Italy are now in lockdown, more to come

Any links? I can only find need about northern Italy and that folks who don't Oney the lock down there face prosecution.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

GV27

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#2435489 10-Mar-2020 09:56

We are clearly past the point of a pandemic. The failure to declare one is not a great reflection on WHO.

GV27

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#2435491 10-Mar-2020 09:57

MikeB4:
tdgeek:

ALL the population in Italy are now in lockdown, more to come

Any links? I can only find need about northern Italy and that folks who don't Oney the lock down there face prosecution.

Guardian liveblog is pretty good at the moment:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/09/coronavirus-live-updates-outbreak-italy-lockdown-quarantine-uk-usa-america-australia-recession-fears-update-latest-news

wellygary

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#2435492 10-Mar-2020 09:58

tdgeek:

ALL the population in Italy are now in lockdown, more to come

Although its not quite clear how strict "lockdown" is,

There are reports that travel for work is to be permitted, but its not clear if that is regular work, or in special situations...

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