2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2438287 14-Mar-2020 21:47

MileHighKiwi:
Italys lockdown, is it really a lockdown? They go to work, shop, shops shut at 6pm

Its been widely reported over the last 2 days that only supermarkets and pharmacies are allowed to open in Italy.

Ok, things have changed then. Wasnt aware of that. Horse has bolted though, so now its time for the sick to recover over coming weeks.

On 9 March 2020, the government of Italy under Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte imposed a national quarantine, restricting the movement of the population except for necessity, work, and health circumstances, in response to the growing outbreak of COVID-19 in the country. Additional lockdown restrictions mandated the temporary closure of non-essential shops and businesses.

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#2438288 14-Mar-2020 22:00

I'm, surprised there is backlash.

Travel & tourism industry was going to get destroyed anyway, regardless of what the NZ government did.

At least this way (assuming it is enough to avoid COVID 19 outbreak here), other industries can keep working.

Regarding enforcement of the 14 day thing, we don't need it to be perfect, but we want the stack the odds in our favor.

Travel volume is about to drop massively, which improves our odds.

If say we had twice daily checks via door knocking (could even be done gig economy style with random people being paid $10 a time via an app) or Skype calls, combined with harsh penalties (visa's canceled & deported for non citizens, prison time for citizens). I would expect compliance to be above 99%. Might have to make a big example in the media and vilify the first few persons to be caught breaching self isolation.

Of course a quick law change will be needed to add breaching isolation to the crimes act, and set to set penalties.

We will need to highly scrutinize those coming in on visitors visa's (especially for stays under 14 days) as they will be much more likely to breach.

tdgeek

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#2438289 14-Mar-2020 22:00

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

Quite a backlash

Following the Prime Minister's press conference, senior Infometrics economist Brad Olsen tweeted that it was the right move, but a "gut punch to the economy".

"Business activity will experience a swift decline, and job losses will rise. Comprehensive fiscal stimulus needed ASAP. What can people do? Consider a roadie to somewhere you haven’t been in NZ to support tourism."

Former chief economist at ANZ Cameron Bagrie said the Government "better have a bazooka fiscal / govt support package to announce in the next day or so".

"The economic impact of this is massive. We are now talking a deep recession. A govt bazooka is needed to make it less deep. We are in a lose lose situation. Just don’t lose too big."

Union E tū, which has about 8000 aviation members, says the scale of disruption will be "unlike anything we've witnessed before".

"We have implemented a comprehensive plan to ensure union members and their workplace leaders are supported and can get the information they need. We have already been involved in talks and negotiations with multiple employers," Savage, the union's head of aviation, said.

"That work will escalate in the weeks ahead as employers begin consulting employees about what the shutdowns mean in their sector."

Savage said the announcement would have a flow-on effect to the domestic and regional network.

"Workers risk redundancies if these hard measures carry on too long," he said.

"The Government’s commitment to supporting the Aviation industry will be vital. Aviation is a life blood industry. It must be supported and ready to rebound soon as the restrictions finish.

"Aviation workers are skilled workers with high security clearance - the industry cannot afford to lose their skills and workers must remain ready to take off again as soon as possible."

It almost sounds as if they feel that imposing a 14 day isolation on everyone will cripple this country, so better to back off that. IMHO, the more we can restrict at the border means the more freedom we have to keep working, keep the economy ticking over. Should we prefer an easy and leaky border and when we get the virus big time, thats what will cripple the economy. It appears that short term pain for a few is less acceptable than long term pain for many. Thats really short sighted

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/03/prime-minister-jacinda-ardern-has-announced-everyone-entering-new-zealand-will-self-isolate.html

The alternative IMO would have been far worse for the economy then this.. At least this allows the domestic economy to largely continue as normal. Do these people think the situation in Italy or China is better than this option, if we can end up being virus free in a few weeks, as long as there isn't community tranmission?

To be honest, I dont get the negativity with this. For me, and for many here, life goes on as normal. Improved that we are now avoiding ALL affected countries, not just a handful, and allowing many in freely with NO restrictions. Such as the 6th case. If you fly in from the US and infected country and you feel fine, welcome. Same with MANY affected countries, including 95% of Europe.

Maybe just having 6 cases is luck, but we are far more protected now.

Scott3

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#2438307 14-Mar-2020 22:04

tdgeek:

The options are

1. Self isolate everybody

2. Ban non nationals from every country. Unsure how Kiwis will get here if a flight can only have kiwis

The full ban, mass flight cancellations is what 2. would be, no access for Kiwis.

Even with option 1 we will see a lot of flight cancellations.

India and Philippines have gone for option 2. (Philippines have banned 60+ countries so is close to a global restriction)

Will be interesting to see what happens hopefully airlines keep running flights for a week or two (or reduce flight number by say 75%) to allow people to scramble and get home.

tdgeek

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#2438310 14-Mar-2020 22:06

Scott3:

I'm, surprised there is backlash.

Travel & tourism industry was going to get destroyed anyway, regardless of what the NZ government did.

At least this way (assuming it is enough to avoid COVID 19 outbreak here), other industries can keep working.

Regarding enforcement of the 14 day thing, we don't need it to be perfect, but we want the stack the odds in our favor.

Travel volume is about to drop massively, which improves our odds.

If say we had twice daily checks via door knocking (could even be done gig economy style with random people being paid $10 a time via an app) or Skype calls, combined with harsh penalties (visa's canceled & deported for non citizens, prison time for citizens). I would expect compliance to be above 99%. Might have to make a big example in the media and vilify the first few persons to be caught breaching self isolation.

Of course a quick law change will be needed to add breaching isolation to the crimes act, and set to set penalties.

We will need to highly scrutinize those coming in on visitors visa's (especially for stays under 14 days) as they will be much more likely to breach.

Tourism is being crushed. Article today from Queenstown way I think, one down 30% one down 65%, no bookings. Thats a done deal. Govt has to step up on that. Logging, thats probably going to be resolved soon, but in the interim, Govt needs to step in. Fish exports, thats probably going to be ok soon, Govt step in. Imports are now coming here. Exports can go, probably.

The alternative of Covid-19 being throughout NZ, thats when everything will grind to a halt.

tdgeek

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#2438311 14-Mar-2020 22:08

Scott3:

Even with option 1 we will see a lot of flight cancellations.

India and Philippines (well for 60+ countries have gone for option 2).

Will be interesting to see what happens hopefully airlines keep running flights for a week or two (or reduce flight number by say 75%) to allow people to scramble and get home.

60+ countries are banning non nationals from every country? I only see 11, but I imagine its a moving target

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#2438315 14-Mar-2020 22:15

tdgeek:

Scott3:

Even with option 1 we will see a lot of flight cancellations.

India and Philippines (well for 60+ countries have gone for option 2).

Will be interesting to see what happens hopefully airlines keep running flights for a week or two (or reduce flight number by say 75%) to allow people to scramble and get home.

60+ countries are banning non nationals from every country?

Sorry, poor grammar. Philippines is banning entry for non-nationals coming from 60+ countries.

The country list is most of the devolved world, pritty much only tiny or extremely poor are not on the list, so I consider it to effectively be the whole world that would realistically be traveling to the Philippines.

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#2438316 14-Mar-2020 22:20

Scott3:

Sorry, poor grammar. Philippines is banning entry for non-nationals coming from 60+ countries.

The country list is most of the devolved world, pritty much only tiny or extremely poor are not on the list, so I consider it to effectively be the whole world that would realistically be traveling to the Philippines.

Ah. This is the world list from Wiki. Bit of a random, bits and pieces list actually.

Cyprus: The Cypriot government has announced that only its citizens, along with other Europeans working on the island and people with special permits will be allowed into the country for a 15-day period beginning on March 15.[2]
Czech Republic: Will close its borders to all nonresidents March 16.[3]
Denmark: Closed its borders to all noncitizens March 14.[4] Includes ban on crossing the border for all tourism, travel, and vacations.[4]
India: Effective March 13, 2020, all tourist visas and OCI entries were suspended until at least April 15, while holders of these visas who were already in the country can stay. Also tightened/closed their border with neighboring countries.[5] India also mandated 14-day quarantine for citizens returning from seven countries: China, France, Germany, Iran, Italy, South Korea and Spain.[6]
North Korea: Closed its borders to all international tourists. Chinese visitors make up the bulk of foreign tourists to North Korea.[7] Also tightened/closed their border with mainland China.[8]
Oman: Suspended tourist visas for all visitors, effective March 15, for 1 month.[9]
Poland: Effective March 15, 2020, for a 10 days' period. Entry ban for all foreigners and 14 days quarantine on its citizens returning home. [10]
Slovakia: Closed its borders to all nonresidents.[11] Will close international airports and require all residents returning from abroad to quarantine.[11] Violators may be fined up to 1659 EUR.[12]
Suriname: Will close its borders for all persons and flights starting March 14.[13]
Ukraine: Starting March 15, Ukraine will close its border for foreigners for two weeks.[14]
Vietnam: Vietnam has announced that from noon Vietnam time (0500 UK) on 15 March 2020 all foreign nationals will be refused entry to Vietnam if in the previous 14 days they have been to the UK, or any Schengen country, even in transit. This restriction will be in place for 30 days.[15]

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#2438318 14-Mar-2020 22:30

My client has cancelled her trip. That's about $30k worth of hotels and activities, food, fuel, transport etc etc that won't now get spent and we are just a small boutique operator. The big guns will be cancelling more than that per day, every day.

If it goes on too long, you'll see tourism businesses laying off staff, self-employed operators going bust and all sorts. The self-employed ones get no sick pay etc either if they catch it.

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#2438319 14-Mar-2020 22:31

Scott3:
I'm, surprised there is backlash.

Herald ran with an anti air nz story because someone complained on social media about the cost of a intl flight in the next 24hrs to get home. Making it look like they were gouging.

Last i checked last min flights that was the norm.. many bandwagon haters without logic reason.

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#2438321 14-Mar-2020 22:34

Geektastic:
If it goes on too long, you'll see tourism businesses laying off staff, self-employed operators going bust and all sorts. The self-employed ones get no sick pay etc either if they catch it.

Someone was on radio on wed, travel agent at home on voluntary leave due lack of bookings by then.

I think that soon changed as they get swamped rebooking or dealing with cancelations. Double edge sword. Staff to deal with refunds. Save with staff costs and not handle demand

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#2438325 14-Mar-2020 22:43

Geektastic:

I can’t agree it’s the strictest. The US has banned travellers from Europe full stop. Italy has 16 million people in lockdown. Etc.

This Europe ban didn't happen, unless you think that Americans returning to the US are not travellers from Europe.

BBC news:

The ban applies to non-Americans who have been in the Schengen border-free travel area within 14 days of travelling to the US.

People travelling from the UK and the Republic of Ireland are exempt, as are returning US citizens.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-51883728

Ineffective for protecting people in the US from COVID-19, but perhaps it serves a different purpose.

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#2438326 14-Mar-2020 22:44

Scott3:

I'm, surprised there is backlash.

Travel & tourism industry was going to get destroyed anyway, regardless of what the NZ government did.

At least this way (assuming it is enough to avoid COVID 19 outbreak here), other industries can keep working.

Regarding enforcement of the 14 day thing, we don't need it to be perfect, but we want the stack the odds in our favor.

Travel volume is about to drop massively, which improves our odds.

If say we had twice daily checks via door knocking (could even be done gig economy style with random people being paid $10 a time via an app) or Skype calls, combined with harsh penalties (visa's canceled & deported for non citizens, prison time for citizens). I would expect compliance to be above 99%. Might have to make a big example in the media and vilify the first few persons to be caught breaching self isolation.

Of course a quick law change will be needed to add breaching isolation to the crimes act, and set to set penalties.

We will need to highly scrutinize those coming in on visitors visa's (especially for stays under 14 days) as they will be much more likely to breach.

This effects way more than the travel and tourism industry. It is not an exaggeration to suggest this could result in double digit unemployment if it goes on for more than a few weeks. When domestic isolation takes place there will be further significant flow on effects to the economy.

As I posted yesterday there are no good decisions here, only degrees of bad ones.

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#2438331 14-Mar-2020 22:52

Ok, here is the release:

Every person entering New Zealand from anywhere in the world will be required to self-isolate for 14 days, excluding the Pacific
These restrictions will all be reviewed in 16 days’ time
Existing travel ban retained for China and Iran
Cruise ships banned from coming to New Zealand, until at least 30 June 2020
Strict new health measures at the border for people departing to the Pacific
A range of measures to assist those in self-isolation to be announced next week
Government will work closely with the aviation sector to encourage airlines to remain active in New Zealand, limit impacts on the tourism sector and exporters
Directive on mass gatherings to be announced early next week
Good afternoon

The full Cabinet met this afternoon to make a range of significant decisions to further protect the health of New Zealanders and reduce the threat of transmission of COVID-19 in New Zealand.

First I want to provide some context to our decisions.

New Zealand has to date, relative to other counties, a small number of cases. We have successfully managed to contact trace for every one of those cases, and are in the process of doing so for our latest one. This has been a critical part of our response.

Secondly, our smaller number of cases has helped us to manage them in the right place, and with the right support. The majority of our cases have not required our hospital system to care for them.

The key continues to be leaving our hospital system for those who need it most.

All of this points to one strategy which has guided our decision making - spread the cases, and flatten the curve.

It is not realistic for New Zealand to have only a handful of cases.

The international evidence proves that is not realistic, and so we must plan and prepare for more cases.

But, the scale of how many cases we get and how fast we get them is something we should do as much as we can to slow. That is how we ensure health services are there for those who need them most.

That’s why we must go hard, and go early, and do everything we can to protect New Zealanders health.

That is exactly why, to tackle this global pandemic, Cabinet made far reaching and unprecedented decisions today.

As of midnight Sunday every person entering New Zealand, including returning New Zealand citizens and residents, will be required to enter self-isolation for 14 days. Everybody.

The Pacific are exempted from this measure, though anyone from these countries will be required to automatically self–isolate should they exhibit any COVID-19 symptoms upon arrival in New Zealand.

These restrictions will all be reviewed in 16 days’ time.

Alongside Israel, and a small number of Pacific Islands who have effectively closed their border, this decision will mean New Zealand will have the widest ranging and toughest border restrictions of any country in the world.

We are also encouraging New Zealanders to avoid all non-essential travel overseas. This help reduces the risk of a New Zealand bringing COVID-19 back with them.

We accept that for New Zealanders currently overseas this is a stressful time and we encourage any New Zealander needing consular assistance to contact the Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

In addition to restrictions on air travel we are also taking firm measures on cruise ships. As of midnight tonight we are issuing a directive to all cruise ships not to come to New Zealand until at least 30 June 2020, at which time the directive will be reviewed.

I want to be very clear - these measures are about people, not products. They do not apply to cargo ships or cargo planes or to marine or air crew, and we will be working to ensure we keep sea and air freight routes open for imports and exports.

In short, no one needs to conduct a run on their supermarket. It’s worth remembering that we’ve had travel restrictions on China for over a month, and those supply routes continue.

We are mindful that some items that come into New Zealand travel via passenger flights. That’s why support, where needed, will be provided to ensure that essential air freight like pharmaceuticals continue to be shipped into New Zealand.

We did not take these decisions lightly. We know these travel restrictions will place significant strain on the aviation industry, and we anticipate some routes will reduce or cease for a period of time.

As such the Government will work closely with the aviation sector to encourage and support airlines to remain active in New Zealand so that we can re-bound from the restrictions quickly and not have significant impacts on our tourism sector, exporters, and economy.

In addition to these measures the Finance Minister will also announce an economic response including the business continuity package on Tuesday.

We are also stepping up our actions at the border as a key departure route to the Pacific. New Zealand has a huge sense of responsibility to support our Pacific neighbours.

As such strict new border exit measures for people travelling to the Pacific will be put in place and include:

No travel for people who have travelled outside of New Zealand in the past 14 days,
No travel for close or casual contacts of a confirmed case.
No travel for anyone who is symptomatic
Health assessment including temperature check
Taken as a whole, the border measures we are taking today will mean significantly more people will enter self-isolation, and supporting and facilitating that to occur is critical.

We are already registering all travellers into New Zealand, and Healthline is monitoring the self-isolation process.

Today we instructed officials to step up enforcement of self isolation through measures such as spot checks. It is worth mentioning though, to date more than 10,500 people are or have successfully self-isolated in New Zealand. People know that it’s in the best interest of their community and they’re pulling together to look after one another.

After all, the combination of restricting the virus coming here and isolating it when it does are two of the most important steps we can take to avoid community outbreak.

Given self-isolation is so important, we want to make it as easy as possible.

As such the Government will be introducing a range of measures to assist with self-isolation.

Expect more on this early next week.

We will also increase community support to those unable to support themselves in isolation.

In addition to these measures the Finance Minister will also announce a business continuity package next week, the Health Minister will announce a suite of additional health measures to scale up the responsiveness of our health system to the virus and a public information campaign will be launched.

Ultimately though, the best protection for the economy is containing the virus. A widespread outbreak will hurt our economy far more in the long run than short term measures to prevent a mass outbreak occurring.

These measures, while disruptive, are needed to make the space we need as a nation to prepare and manage the spread of COVID-19.

We all have obligations to limit the spread of the virus and basic health measures is are the heart of that.

However in order to limit the risk of community outbreak when people are in close proximity to each other we will also be announcing further guidelines on mass gatherings. For now, Pasifika and the 15 March Memorial have been cancelled.

The guidance we will be developing more broadly on mass gatherings will be based on the following criteria:

Large numbers of people in close proximity
Events where people are more likely to be in physical contact
Events where participants have travelled from overseas
And non-ticketed events, where for instance there is no seat allocation making it difficult to contact trace
Again, advice and criteria on mass gatherings will be released next week. For those who need more immediate advice, they should contact their public health unit.

In conclusion, we have two choices as a nation. One is to let COVID-19 roll on, and brace.

The second is to go hard on measures to keep it out, and stamp it out - not because we can stop a global pandemic from reaching us, but because it is in our power to slow it down.

I make no apology for choosing the second path. New Zealanders public health comes first. If we have that, we can recover from the impacts on the economy, the impacts on tourism, and the impacts on our airline.

Finally, this is an unprecedented time. While we don’t have community transmission here, now is the time to prepare. And we can all play a role in that. So here’s my request to New Zealanders:

Wash your hands
If you don’t need to travel overseas, then don’t. Enjoy your own back yard for a time.
Wash your hands
If you’re sick, stay home.
If you sneeze, do it into your elbow
Wash your hands.
Stop handshakes, hugs, and hongi - I know this is counter to who we are as a nation, but the best thing we can do right now to show love and affection to one another, is to switch to the east coast wave.
Please be mindful of the older citizens in your life. Check in on them, but if you’re sick, keep your distance

Finally, we are a tough resilient people. We have been here before. But our journey will depend on how we work together. We are taking every measure we need as a government, and we ask that you do to.

We all have a role to play. Look out for your neighbour, look out for your family. Look out for your friends.

* The Pacific is defined as the Cook Islands, the Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, Kiribati, Nauru, New Caledonia, Niue, Palau, Papua New Guinea, the Republic of Marshall Islands, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu & Wallis and Futuna.

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#2438337 14-Mar-2020 23:08

Father in law dropped in tonight, IT issues to sort out but has a new dilemma. He has a young Chilean boarder who lives with them, the boarder is due to return from visiting his parents back home later in the week. Father in law plus partner are 72 and 60 years, risk from Chile looks to be low give or take the flight contact but now have to comply with the new rules.

Does the whole household have to isolate? Is it enough to have him stick to his own room and bathroom (which he mostly does anyway)? Or should he find his own temp accommodation, and will he still have his job as a baker at Pak n Save after two extra weeks off?

I welcome the extra restrictions but unless we shut down borders indefinitely we also need to prepare for the massive hit to the healthcare system when the virus takes hold. It will get here eventually and rip through the population to a certain extent (20%, 60%?) and there has never been an effective corona type virus vaccine.

Not sure what else we can do but I feel we're just delaying the inevitable with a finger in the dike.

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