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mattwnz
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  #2767879 28-Aug-2021 00:16
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Oblivian:
mattwnz:

 

IMO I am not sure why they aren't making some ethnic and age groups a priority based on risk factor.



That is very similar to the lady reporter that basically looks for a quote that could get a hint of angle toward a discriminatory story.

And is continually quashed with factual info from the podoums.

There were and are focus groups. They were one of the first rolled in northland (remember the overrun centres with people travelling from Auckland..)
The uptake has been low. And noone can explain other than reinforce there are continual working attempts to encourage mindset change.

Can lead a horse and all that.

 

 

 

Isn't that the reason why the MOH is saying that certain groups are being worst affected in this outbreak, because they really want these groups to take notice, and it seems to be working?  But it is human nature to not do anything until it needs to be done. The only good thing that has come out of this, is it is now resulting in a lot more people being vaccinated. The same thing is happening in NSW and Vic, as they now see vaccination as the only way out of lockdown over there.  Vaccination equals far less risk of dying or major illness from it.




Handle9
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  #2767881 28-Aug-2021 00:30
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DS248:

Quarantine status data from the Vic outbreak. 


Despite ~3wks of fairly strict lockdown, a significant proportion of new cases have been in the community at least part of the time they were infectious.  


Are there reasons to suspect the pattern here is going to be substantially different? 



 


 



No not really. Melbourne is higher density in the CBD so it's considerably more difficult to contain things but there's a fair chance NZ is in for a long haul. I hope not but it's a real possibility.

mattwnz
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  #2767888 28-Aug-2021 00:58
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Handle9:
DS248:

 

Quarantine status data from the Vic outbreak. 

 

 

 

Despite ~3wks of fairly strict lockdown, a significant proportion of new cases have been in the community at least part of the time they were infectious.  

 

 

 

Are there reasons to suspect the pattern here is going to be substantially different? 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



No not really. Melbourne is higher density in the CBD so it's considerably more difficult to contain things but there's a fair chance NZ is in for a long haul. I hope not but it's a real possibility.

 

 

 

They have also been in lockdown overall for far far longer than NZ, so their compliance is nowhere near as good as NZs, and people over there are sick of lockdowns.Due to NSW, and their PM also saying that teh only way out is vaccination, it seems that that is now the way they are heading, but their health system is a lot better than NZs, so they can cope better than NZ.   In NZ, there is still very strong support to eliminate this, and it is definitely possible, and there isn't really any other choice but lockdown. Really is it going to be a problem in Auckland, the rest of NZ will likely eliminate it.




ajobbins
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  #2767894 28-Aug-2021 01:51
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I'm in VIC. We briefly got down to 0 after just over a week with under 10 cases, but then it took off again very rapidly.

https://covidlive.com.au/report/daily-cases/vic 

You have a much better shot of getting it under control, In part because you will have higher compliance than us (after 209 days in lockdown, more and more people are over it), but also your lockdown is far stricter than ours.

We can still get takeway food, and most big retailers are open for click and collect. You can still take your car for a service, and go to the dentist (apart for preventative) etc etc. We are supposed to stay within 5km of home and only leave for essentials, but the number of cars on the road is almost like normal.

I hope you can get on top of this one. If anyone can do it, NZ can.





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Batman

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  #2767901 28-Aug-2021 06:24
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mattwnz: Really is it going to be a problem in Auckland, the rest of NZ will likely eliminate it.

 

 

but if AKL continues to brew cases it will seed around the country i reckon


Batman

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  #2767902 28-Aug-2021 06:26
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Scott3:

 

Sadly it seems that pfizer's contractual obligation to deliver all the doses by September (as per RNZ article) is no longer happening.

 

 

sold to highest bidder eh. 

 

there are other vaccines around. not sure why we have been hellbent on pfizer


 
 
 

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Fred99
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  #2767908 28-Aug-2021 07:43
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Batman:

 

sold to highest bidder eh. 

 

there are other vaccines around. not sure why we have been hellbent on pfizer

 

 

Because - although it wasn't known 100% at the time we negotiated the supply - the mRNA vaccines are better.

 

IIRC we also have orders in place for Moderna Novavax for delivery of 5 10 million doses by the end of the year.

 

Sold to the highest bidder is probably true, as is "vaccine diplomacy".


Fred99
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  #2767910 28-Aug-2021 07:53
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mattwnz:

 

Delta has a  R0 of 6  Interesting to hear that the R0 for Delta once people are immunized only drops to 5.

 

 

The quote from the article you linked to actually says:

 

when vaccination rates of under 40% get it down to around 5

 

Omissions/errors and misquotes are fodder for anti-vaxxers and other trolls.


Scott3
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  #2767913 28-Aug-2021 08:00
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Fred99:

 

Batman:

 

sold to highest bidder eh. 

 

there are other vaccines around. not sure why we have been hellbent on pfizer

 

 

Because - although it wasn't known 100% at the time we negotiated the supply - the mRNA vaccines are better.

 

IIRC we also have orders in place for Moderna for delivery of 5 million doses by the end of the year.

 

Sold to the highest bidder is probably true, as is "vaccine diplomacy".

 

 

Pritty sure NZ there hasn't been any public announcement of NZ having a moderna order... 4 brands we ordered are listed here:

 

https://www.health.govt.nz/our-work/diseases-and-conditions/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-vaccines/covid-19-vaccine-strategy-planning-insights/covid-19-purchasing-vaccines

 

 


Fred99
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  #2767914 28-Aug-2021 08:04
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Oops my bad for not checking - "Novovax" - not Moderna - and 5 million courses (2 jabs) not doses.


Batman

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  #2767915 28-Aug-2021 08:09
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SG using self test rapid antigen test kits

 

i thought they had low pick up - maybe some pick up is better than no pick up

 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/covid-19-antigen-rapid-test-kits-households-pre-schools-primary-schools-moh-2139756

 

 


 
 
 
 

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Batman

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Fred99
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  #2767919 28-Aug-2021 08:22
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Batman:

 

SG using self test rapid antigen test kits

 

i thought they had low pick up - maybe some pick up is better than no pick up

 

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/singapore/covid-19-antigen-rapid-test-kits-households-pre-schools-primary-schools-moh-2139756

 

 

 

 

With endemic covid, rapid self-tests are IMO a very good idea.  With a (near) elimination goal, false negatives from tests would spark outbreaks - so you need a gold standard test.  With the disease endemic, you're past the point where missing some cases is going to make a big difference, but catching many - but not all - might keep total infections (and strain on the health system) down.

 

 


tdgeek
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  #2767923 28-Aug-2021 08:35
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Batman:

 

mattwnz: Really is it going to be a problem in Auckland, the rest of NZ will likely eliminate it.

 

 

but if AKL continues to brew cases it will seed around the country i reckon

 

 

Brew cases?

 

68 Thursday, 37 of them were household infections, not CT. Others were linked to pre lockdown

 

Yesterday they didn't give those figures but 44 were Samoans, so from the Church, assume household connections, staying at home,. Im sure she said 10 or 16 were "exposures"

 

So, 70 cases less 44 = 26. 16 were exposed in the community so true CT = 16, that leaves 10 of the other non Samoan ethnic groups including Europeans, so I assume they are also household contacts or pre lockdowns. The "brew" is 16. Auckland is a large city, only 16 from CT is a sound result.

 

I dont know why they give a blanket comment that cases will rise, because the layman connotation is community spread, but the last two days where they gave extra figures show that there isn't 68 and 70 cases spreading wild in Auckland. If I was in AKL and infected pre lockdown and I gave it to my other 3 family members, then spread is ZERO, as its known, expected, and contained. 

 

Seed around the country? There are travel restrictions. Not 100% secure due to goods transport but pretty secure I imagine.


Scott3
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  #2767925 28-Aug-2021 08:47
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Fred99:

 

Oops my bad for not checking - "Novovax" - not Moderna - and 5 million courses (2 jabs) not doses.

 

 

 

 

Novovax is extremely promising, it's stage 3 trial results were excellent, and they are also positioning themselves as a universal booster (some kinda trial about this going on in the UK).

 

But I don't expect the doses to arrive here this year.

 

They have applied for emergency use authorization in Philippines, India and Indonesia. I don't think any of those countries has approved it yet. They are have listed a few countries they plan to apply in next, but I havn't seen NZ on the list. Even if they do apply soon, our regulator medsafe seems pritty slow on approvals.

 

Potentially could be a great booster option for us, but I think it will be too late to help out for the main roll out.


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