2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2509869 22-Jun-2020 16:14

tdgeek:

So we in NZ do tests that have about a 24 hour turnaround, yet an airline has a 10 minute turnaround?

The (I believe yet to be confirmed reliable) blood testing. Yes.

https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-becomes-first-airline-to-conduct-on-site-rapid-covid-19-tests-for-passengers/

But most these cases have been Via Doha or South Asia, (or dog leg from Australia via those) not the UAE (who seem to be the only ones who are)

Batman

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#2509874 22-Jun-2020 16:20

Oblivian:
tdgeek:

So we in NZ do tests that have about a 24 hour turnaround, yet an airline has a 10 minute turnaround?

The (I believe yet to be confirmed reliable) blood testing. Yes.

https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-becomes-first-airline-to-conduct-on-site-rapid-covid-19-tests-for-passengers/

But most these cases have been Via Doha or South Asia, (or dog leg from Australia via those) not the UAE (who seem to be the only ones who are)

I thought someone said earlier that these rapid tests are not very accurate.

Batman

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#2509875 22-Jun-2020 16:21

First hit on Google https://www.paddleyourownkanoo.com/2020/05/18/game-changer-rapid-covid-19-tests-trialled-by-emirates-only-had-an-accuracy-rate-of-30/amp/

wellygary

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#2509876 22-Jun-2020 16:25

Oblivian:

tdgeek:

So we in NZ do tests that have about a 24 hour turnaround, yet an airline has a 10 minute turnaround?

The (I believe yet to be confirmed reliable) blood testing. Yes.

https://www.emirates.com/media-centre/emirates-becomes-first-airline-to-conduct-on-site-rapid-covid-19-tests-for-passengers/

But most these cases have been Via Doha or South Asia, (or dog leg from Australia via those) not the UAE (who seem to be the only ones who are)

Flights from Dubai to Auckland begin on 1 July, So it would be very interesting to see if flights via here exhibit different infection rates (or whether it catches cases on the way through)

Batman

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#2509882 22-Jun-2020 16:30

You'd hope the MOH won't rely to results of rapid tests...

1101

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#2509883 22-Jun-2020 16:31

We now have the number not tested before release

"Since then, it's been revealed 2400 people were released from managed isolation or quarantine facilities without a single COVID-19 test."

2400 released with no tests done. Is that just their best guess , a nice round number looks like a guesstimate
I would think zero chance of not being some covid carriers in that lot , given the shambles of mixing & mingling in the hotels

DS248

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#2509908 22-Jun-2020 17:10

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

As Ive suggested earlier, Australia have done better than NZ, read that here frequently. No way to get here, but travel of Kiwis from Australia has been there. Still no cases. Now travel here is high, 600 tomorrow from the likes of UK, India, Pakistan, its not surprising, Higher numbers and hotspots compound the end result. Seems pretty experted to me. As long as they get nabbed in border control, and they get a negative test when they leave, all good, job done

They may have initially said that, but the numbers show that NZ has done better, because we eliminated it. The level 4 restrictions IMO appear to have been the difference, which Oz didn't do. Oz has no elimination policy, and they are still living under restrictions. They plan to go up and down levels to control and suppress it for many months, potentially years, until a vaccine or something else happens. So I can't see that being good long term for their economy and businesses.

...

Looking at AU as a whole is too simplistic. The individual states/territories have been driving much of the response, including border closures etc where applied. Yes, Victoria and Scott Morrison have been pushing 'flatten the curve' rather than an elimination message but clearly that is not the current policy in most other jurisdictions, regardless of what may have been said (like we set out in L4 to flatten the curve).

NT (> 11 weeks since last local case), SA (> 8 weeks), ACT (> 9 weeks) and Tasmania (> 5 weeks) have all eliminated the virus locally, and all got there before NZ (> 4 weeks). All but ACT closed their borders to other states. So for those four jurisdictions, 'flatten the curve' is not an objective - elimination has already been achieved.

QLD (26? days) & WA (1 local case in 34 days, 10 days since that case) possibly close on their heals. These two are close enough to 'elimination' that it is hard to imagine that their objective now will still be to 'flatten the curve'. Both have had closed state borders. Elimination would make life a lot easier, and allow borders with NT, SA & Tasmania to be safely opened (bearing in mind that that is a State prerogative). And potentially with NSW not that far down the track.

NSW is down to relatively small numbers of local cases - one yesterday (still under investigation) and 5 total in the last 26 days (vs 62 imported over the same time). Again, given the numbers elimination would seem a reasonably achievable goal. And the rate of testing suggests that they are taking it seriously (~90,500 tests per million population vs ~69,000 in NZ).

Victorian numbers are a concern as they have risen over the past 12 days; average 11+ local cases a day over the last week vs 1/day for week earlier in June. Would be interesting if QLD, WA & NSW do achieve local elimination. Especially if that meant open state borders to all but Victoria?

Edit: a couple of typo corrections

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#2509910 22-Jun-2020 17:14

It sucks to be a live music performer in the US. The artists take all the COVID risks, and the event company gets more money.

Artists better not even think about cancelling their performance due to health worries, unless they are willing to pay twice the artist fee.

Not mentioned, in the US, Ticket Master seems to be doing its best to keep ticket buyers money by postponing events indefinitely. Because if they cancelled an event, they'd have to return the money (hopefully)

Rolling Stones: The largest live events company in North America "Live Nation" wants artists to take pay cuts and cancelation burdens for shows in 2021

"There’s still no telling when music venues will be able to reopen their doors to large crowds of concertgoers, and Live Nation — the largest live events company in North America — is making changes seemingly in reaction to the uncertainty. In a recent memo obtained by Rolling Stone, the company told its talent partners that it plans to make an array of alterations for concerts and festivals held in 2021.

Most of the new policies shift financial burdens to artists: For example, the company wants to decrease the monetary guarantees promised to artists before an event by 20% across the board. Live Nation also says that if a concert is cancelled due to poor ticket sales, it will give artists 25% of the guarantee (as opposed to the 100% that promoters are currently expected to pay). Moreover, if an artist cancels a performance in breach of the agreement, the artist will pay the promoter two times the artist’s fee — a type of penalty that, as Billboard notes, is unheard of in the live music industry."
...
https://www.rollingstone.com/pro/news/live-nation-memo-pay-cuts-covid-1016989/

Handle9

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#2509999 22-Jun-2020 19:57

Dingbatt:

The amount being spent on isolation/quarantine is peanuts in the greater scheme and is cheap insurance when compared to the economic damage of a widespread outbreak.

NZers are entitled to come home. But there will come a time in the not too distant future where they should be told they may have to contribute to their accommodation costs and there is a distinct possibility they will spend the entirety of their two weeks in their hotel room. I believe we should set up an “Intention to return” register where people give a time frame for their return and acknowledge they may be billed for some of the expense, will need to submit to testing and may spend the entire time isolated in their room (and not necessarily in the location of their choice).

That seems the most likely scenario and is totally reasonable. As an expat I expect to be able to come home at some stage. I'm also comfortable with making a contribution to this. If that was cut off then I'd reconsider ever returning and certainly look to liquidate my New Zealand assets.

There are also very significant economic and diplomatic repercussions in refusing to accept your own citizens. In the event that a citizen is deported and a country refused to accept them then that would severely effect future travel and trade for all people from that country. Peters touched on this in his speech in April.

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#2510032 22-Jun-2020 20:20

1101:

We now have the number not tested before release

"Since then, it's been revealed 2400 people were released from managed isolation or quarantine facilities without a single COVID-19 test."

2400 released with no tests done. Is that just their best guess , a nice round number looks like a guesstimate
I would think zero chance of not being some covid carriers in that lot , given the shambles of mixing & mingling in the hotels

@1101 Presumably the vast majority of those 2400 (assuming that is the number) would have completed 14 days of isolation/quarantine and therefore were released without showing symptoms. It is very very rare for Covid-19 to not show until after 14 days.

As much reported a big concern too is how many left isolation/quarantine on compassionate grounds with no test but my understanding is the MoH are vigorously following up on all of those

At least the loosey-goosey quarantines are hopefully behind us

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#2510033 22-Jun-2020 20:24

xlinknz:

@1101 Presumably the vast majority of those 2400 (assuming that is the number) would have completed 14 days of isolation/quarantine and therefore were released without showing symptoms. It is very very rare for Covid-19 to not show until after 14 days.

"Eighty-one percent of Covid-19 infected passengers on a cruise ship had no symptoms, according to new research." From RNZ this morning: https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018751666/covid-19-research-finds-many-people-asymptomatic

So unfortunately your optimism is ill placed.

mattwnz

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#2510046 22-Jun-2020 20:55

duckDecoy:

xlinknz:

@1101 Presumably the vast majority of those 2400 (assuming that is the number) would have completed 14 days of isolation/quarantine and therefore were released without showing symptoms. It is very very rare for Covid-19 to not show until after 14 days.

"Eighty-one percent of Covid-19 infected passengers on a cruise ship had no symptoms, according to new research." From RNZ this morning: https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon/audio/2018751666/covid-19-research-finds-many-people-asymptomatic

So unfortunately your optimism is ill placed.

The other thing is whether people will admit to not feeling 100%. Someone may just have mild symptoms and feel a bit under the weather, which is different to not having any symptoms at all. This relies on trust that people are admitting they don't feel well.

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#2510050 22-Jun-2020 21:01

mattwnz:

The other thing is whether people will admit to not feeling 100%. Someone may just have mild symptoms and feel a bit under the weather, which is different to not having any symptoms at all. This relies on trust that people are admitting they don't feel well.

Everyone who gets off a flight in AKL will feel rubbish. You are talking 4-24 hrs of flying.

lxsw20

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#2510055 22-Jun-2020 21:10

Govt considering a co-payments for people in Quarantine in the coming weeks. Be interesting to see what $ they come up with.

1101

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#2510058 22-Jun-2020 21:16

xlinknz:

1101:

We now have the number not tested before release

"Since then, it's been revealed 2400 people were released from managed isolation or quarantine facilities without a single COVID-19 test."

@1101 Presumably the vast majority of those 2400 (assuming that is the number) would have completed 14 days of isolation/quarantine and therefore were released without showing symptoms. It is very very rare for Covid-19 to not show until after 14 days

Some of those untested were mingling with more recent arrivals. There wasnt the separation of new & old arrivals
So those due for release could have easily picked up covid from untested new arrivals .
They are supposed to be protecting against worst case scenario .

The whole reason we are spending so many $$$ on quarantining is due to the supposedly high risk of infecting others.
If its a non issue (judging by actions) then why bother ?

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