2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2514100 28-Jun-2020 19:00

Anyone guess what the real numbers are? 50 million ? They are saying US's numbers could alone be 20 million. But the numbers are always upto 14 days behind anyway.

Batman

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#2514101 28-Jun-2020 19:01

Nobody knows. But it's high. You can't test every case.

cshwone

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#2514111 28-Jun-2020 19:17

vexxxboy:

again you are falling into that area of not being able to stop NZ citizens/residents from coming home, it is the same reason why you cant charge them for Quarantine. If they want to come home they can and all we can do is what we are doing now and the article does say that we are doing that well, we just need to keep up with the demand which am sure the government knows what has to be done, you just have to trust them.

I think a lot of people are making random assumptions around charging, conflating a right against free. Absolutely, Kiwis have a right to come home, but even in the previous non-covid world, if you had an issue overseas, you couldn't expect the government to repatriate you. People had to pay to fly home, that was part of the deal. It might have been you had to pay the money back to the government but it wasn't free to exercise the right to come home. Equally, a condition on arrival now should be that you have to pay to be quarantined.

So whatever your rights as a Kiwi, in the good old days to get home you had to be able to afford the airfare.

Now in the COVID-19 world you should have to be able to afford the airfare, and the cost of quarantine.

Fred99

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#2514121 28-Jun-2020 20:08

Batman: Nobody knows. But it's high. You can't test every case.

Best bet (IMO) is to take confirmed deaths, multiply by 100, then you get a very rough approximation of true case rate 2 weeks ago.

So 500,000 "confirmed" deaths = 50 million probable cases - about 5x higher than "confirmed" cases.

Even allowing for confounding variables I'm confident that's about as close as you'll get, could be 25 million, could be 100. It's still only a small % of world population, this pandemic is still in the early phase.

The BS circulating in the US about a "second wave" is delusional. They haven't yet had a full "first wave". In context of comparison with the 1918 'flu pandemic, then possibly there was a mutation that made the virus worse - and that's not how it "should" work.. I've seen no evidence of a functional mutation in the C-19 virus, despite some evidence that a mutation has resulted in # of receptor protein spikes increasing, thus hypothetically making it easier/faster to contract, but nothing to suggest that makes it less virulent. I can't see any evolutionary advantage - it "only" kills 1% of hosts, so if R0 was 2.5, reduction to 2.475 because hosts died before they passed it on is a rounding error - and worse, because they'll pass it on before they die. It's a red-herring.

So - hope for a vaccine - or up to 80 million people will die. After that then "it's just the 'flu".

pab

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#2514173 28-Jun-2020 23:24

cshwone:
Now in the COVID-19 world you should have to be able to afford the airfare, and the cost of quarantine.

Work around it by charging the incoming airline the cost of the quarantine, who will then build the cost into their airfare prices?

mattwnz

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#2514175 28-Jun-2020 23:55

Batman:

these are all (some common some rare) post viral effects of all the other known *viruses. it's nothing new. but the sheer numbers of covid infection being so contagious means there are more people with these issues. i think this is old news, they've been saying this since day 1. media blowing it out. don't panic.

*type in a random virus and search the complications and you'll see what I mean.

I larger issue seems to be with people who get a serious case of it, and then get organ damage. But then there is post viral problems that people can get. The costs resulting could be huge for countries that chose to not eliminate it.

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mattwnz

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#2514176 28-Jun-2020 23:58

pab:
cshwone:

Now in the COVID-19 world you should have to be able to afford the airfare, and the cost of quarantine.

Work around it by charging the incoming airline the cost of the quarantine, who will then build the cost into their airfare prices?

TYHat isn't much different to fining airlines for each covid case. But it doesn't t give airlines any monetary incentive to not bring in covid cases. The price airlines pay shoul dbe based on the risk they pose IMO. That could then reduce the risk of new covid cases coming into NZ.

Geektastic

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#2514311 29-Jun-2020 11:19

I had an email from Emirates.

To fly there now, you must prove that either you have the money to cover your quarantine costs or insurance that will do so.

Wander4821

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#2514478 29-Jun-2020 14:41

Lol. Hosking wrote a rant piece on keeping NZers from returning to the country, and now argues to let folks in who aren't NZers because they have money in their wallets. xD

Released this morning: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12343783

kingdragonfly

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#2514482 29-Jun-2020 14:45

As long as at the arrival gate Mike Hosking greets each non-citizen with a kiss on the mouth, I'm all for it.

Wander4821

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#2514493 29-Jun-2020 14:56

kingdragonfly: As long as at the arrival gate Mike Hosking greets each non-citizen with a kiss on the mouth, I'm all for it.

My favorite Hosking moment is still when Ardern won the election, and he had a public meltdown like the world was ending..

Edit: Found the moment I am talking about: https://i.stuff.co.nz/entertainment/tv-radio/98084186/how-mike-hosking-handled-the-election-result

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#2514496 29-Jun-2020 15:03

Wander4821:
kingdragonfly: As long as at the arrival gate Mike Hosking greets each non-citizen with a kiss on the mouth, I'm all for it.
My favorite Hosking moment is still when Ardern won the election, and he had a public meltdown like the world was ending.

no matter what you think of Hosking , he asks some valid questions which will have to be answered in the next few months.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

mattwnz

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#2514510 29-Jun-2020 15:11

Geektastic:

I had an email from Emirates.

To fly there now, you must prove that either you have the money to cover your quarantine costs or insurance that will do so.

This seems very sensible. It should be user pays and people had plenty of time to come back prior to now.

There perhaps could be exceptions in certain cases where it was previously impossible to come back.

But people who are flying out still, for business or holiday, and then coming back, should be paying, especially as the travel advice is to not travel overseas.

1101

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#2514513 29-Jun-2020 15:18

M Hosking wanted to let Chinese students in when Ch was at its peak of out of control Covid .

ZB talkhosts criticized the govt for being heartless & not allowing early quarantine releases, then flip flopped after Thelma & Louise

He does have 1 valid point , whats the long term plan. Do we even have one ?
Our boarders cant stay in lockdown forever & other countries are slowly accepting they will never be rid of it . So do we never open the boarders. Covid isnt going away .
Does our isolation make us more vulnerable to future Covid strains & mutations. NZ will have no 'herd immunity' at all.

mattwnz

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#2514519 29-Jun-2020 15:26

1101:

M Hosking wanted to let Chinese students in when Ch was at its peak of out of control Covid .

ZB talkhosts criticized the govt for being heartless & not allowing early quarantine releases, then flip flopped after Thelma & Louise

He does have 1 valid point , whats the long term plan. Do we even have one ?
Our boarders cant stay in lockdown forever & other countries are slowly accepting they will never be rid of it . So do we never open the boarders. Covid isnt going away .
Does our isolation make us more vulnerable to future Covid strains & mutations. NZ will have no 'herd immunity' at all.

I don't think it is a valid point, it is pretty obvious IMO and has already been stated by the PM . We need a vaccine, that is the long term plan. Otherwise it is down to how the virus plays out around the world. NZ has zero control over this, except to keep the virus out. These people have no patience.

WHO have already said that there is no evidence of any long term immunity to the virus if you get it, and whether herd immunity will even work, or people could just keep catching it annually like a cold.

NZ has acted on WHOs advice, and got rid of the virus from the community. It means we can return to a normal life free of masks and physical distancing.

Imagine being a business and had to deal with managing the risks of COVID, and all the costs that involves, many businesses wouldn't survive that long term without increasing prices. COVID in the community means that people also spend less.

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