What will power our vehicles in the future?

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#2748351 22-Jul-2021 17:45

RobDickinson:

NZ already has some orders in for the ES-19 short haul electric plane.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/125663239/electric-passenger-aircraft-on-the-horizon-for-regional-routes-aviation-industry-says

There are shorter haul larger ev aircraft in development but larger and longer trips will likely be hydrogen fuelled - but that depends on pace of development, which seems doubly slow for a combination of aircraft and hydrogen.

The issue with batteries is the energy density (we really need 400hw/kg or more) , we'll get there but it might take quite some time.

The 'logical step' for hydrogen just seems so slow to happen its use cases vanish before its a working application.

Don't hold your breathe on electric airliners. That's just an attention grabbing article. Heart are spruiking commercial service by 2026 for their ES-19. I can tell you now that won't happen. These guys here agree;

Electric Planes: Don't Count on Them Taking Flight Soon

A couple of excerpts;

"....it's doubtful that Heart Aerospace can get the plane certified just five years from now. Moreover, without heavy government support, it will likely be impossible to fly the ES-19 profitably.......

.....Electric aircraft technology will eventually progress to the point of being commercially viable. But United Airlines' and Mesa Airlines' vision of flying dozens or even hundreds of 19-seat electric planes on regional routes by the end of the decade looks like a pipe dream."

Even when they do get the ES-19 up and running there are several factors that will limit it's usability. It's too slow. It's range is too short. I haven't seen any payload figures but I'd expect them to be limiting as well. The market that might work for the ES-19 is far too small for a manufacturer to make any money. The 19 seat market died 20 years ago and Heart are chasing a subset of a dead market.

I predict the ES-19 will be a project that will suck up significant pots of investor money and have nothing to show at the end. I wish them all the best, but I think their goal is wishful thinking and I would never put my money anywhere near something like that.

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edge

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#2748352 22-Jul-2021 17:49

Dingbatt:

I think a donkey would be considered a danger to the planet because, as a ruminant animal, it will produce methane. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if the medieval warm period referenced earlier in the thread wasn’t caused by the proliferation of larger four leg drive beasts of burden.

😁

Nope - they're not ruminants so they're OK :-) (to paraphrase a song about lumberjacks!) - just don't expect them to go faster than a good walk :-)

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PolicyGuy

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#2748355 22-Jul-2021 17:59

tdgeek:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2021/07/photos-china-launches-new-maglev-train-that-travels-at-record-breaking-600km-h.html

This is an option to remove some flights, and replace the power usage with green energy

High speed rail of any sort is not really an option in NZ.

We have Narrow Gauge (~1m) track largely to allow tighter turns than Standard Gauge (4' 8½" IIRC) would permit.
Any kind of even medium speed (say 120km/hr), let alone high speed (200km/h plus) rail would require a completely new track to be laid, on a new alignment with much less severe corners and gradients. With our terrain, this would require lots of long tunnels, magnificent viaducts and huge cuttings and embankments. You'd probably do it in Standard Gauge so we could buy off-the-shelf high-speed locos & rolling stock, which simply aren't built at all for Narrow Gauge.

Technically, yes it could be done, but to provide links between our one small (by world standards) city Auckland and a few country-town sized centres like Tauranga, Hamilton & Wellington would cost at least tens of billions of dollars for at most - assuming no aircraft or private cars - a thousand or two passengers a day.
That will never be viable

I wish it were
:)

Edit: Grammar

Rikkitic

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#2748359 22-Jul-2021 18:16

tdgeek:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2021/07/photos-china-launches-new-maglev-train-that-travels-at-record-breaking-600km-h.html

This is an option to remove some flights, and replace the power usage with green energy

The Chinese will show us the way. We just have to say that we find them lovable.

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Dingbatt

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#2748360 22-Jul-2021 18:20

edge:

Dingbatt:

I think a donkey would be considered a danger to the planet because, as a ruminant animal, it will produce methane. In fact I wouldn’t be surprised if the medieval warm period referenced earlier in the thread wasn’t caused by the proliferation of larger four leg drive beasts of burden.

😁

Nope - they're not ruminants so they're OK :-) (to paraphrase a song about lumberjacks!) - just don't expect them to go faster than a good walk :-)

Quite right. So just the four leg drive cows, sheep and goats then 😀. Kind of spoiled the levity though.

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edge

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#2748412 22-Jul-2021 20:59

Dingbatt:

Quite right. So just the four leg drive cows, sheep and goats then 😀. Kind of spoiled the levity though.

I think I'd stick with the cows - probably have difficulty keeping feet off the ground with the others 😀

"It is useless to attempt to reason a man out of what he was never reasoned into."
— most commonly attributed to Jonathan Swift, author/theologian

tdgeek

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#2748423 22-Jul-2021 22:24

PolicyGuy:

tdgeek:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/travel/2021/07/photos-china-launches-new-maglev-train-that-travels-at-record-breaking-600km-h.html

This is an option to remove some flights, and replace the power usage with green energy

High speed rail of any sort is not really an option in NZ.

We have Narrow Gauge (~1m) track largely to allow tighter turns than Standard Gauge (4' 8½" IIRC) would permit.
Any kind of even medium speed (say 120km/hr), let alone high speed (200km/h plus) rail would require a completely new track to be laid, on a new alignment with much less severe corners and gradients. With our terrain, this would require lots of long tunnels, magnificent viaducts and huge cuttings and embankments. You'd probably do it in Standard Gauge so we could buy off-the-shelf high-speed locos & rolling stock, which simply aren't built at all for Narrow Gauge.

Technically, yes it could be done, but to provide links between our one small (by world standards) city Auckland and a few country-town sized centres like Tauranga, Hamilton & Wellington would cost at least tens of billions of dollars for at most - assuming no aircraft or private cars - a thousand or two passengers a day.
That will never be viable

I wish it were
:)

Edit: Grammar

Yep, not easy here, but elsewhere such as Europe and obviously the US, where FF rules

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Technofreak

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#2748949 23-Jul-2021 22:15

This in the news today

https://www.driven.co.nz/news/will-tiwai-point-become-the-world-s-first-green-hydrogen-factory/?utm_source=nzh&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=topbox

The last sentence explains where the initial drivers are for hydrogen power. If they get green hydrogen production sorted then I think hydrogen will become a mainstream energy source. Yes it is inefficient to produce but the energy to weight factor makes it so attractive for many uses.

I've long held the view that when nuclear fusion is perfected then we have access to abundant cheap power and hydrogen will be cheap to produce. At this time I believe hydrogen will become the energy of choice. Wether or not we have nuclear energy in New Zealand will be irrelevant. We will follow what the rest of the world does.

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Technofreak

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#2748951 23-Jul-2021 22:18

This today as well.

https://www.driven.co.nz/news/new-israeli-battery-tech-set-to-revolutionise-electric-vehicles/

Sounds promising though so far though no evidence they can do it in the wild.

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Handle9

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#2748961 24-Jul-2021 00:29

Technofreak:

RobDickinson:

NZ already has some orders in for the ES-19 short haul electric plane.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/industries/125663239/electric-passenger-aircraft-on-the-horizon-for-regional-routes-aviation-industry-says

There are shorter haul larger ev aircraft in development but larger and longer trips will likely be hydrogen fuelled - but that depends on pace of development, which seems doubly slow for a combination of aircraft and hydrogen.

The issue with batteries is the energy density (we really need 400hw/kg or more) , we'll get there but it might take quite some time.

The 'logical step' for hydrogen just seems so slow to happen its use cases vanish before its a working application.

Don't hold your breathe on electric airliners. That's just an attention grabbing article. Heart are spruiking commercial service by 2026 for their ES-19. I can tell you now that won't happen. These guys here agree;

Electric Planes: Don't Count on Them Taking Flight Soon

A couple of excerpts;

"....it's doubtful that Heart Aerospace can get the plane certified just five years from now. Moreover, without heavy government support, it will likely be impossible to fly the ES-19 profitably.......

.....Electric aircraft technology will eventually progress to the point of being commercially viable. But United Airlines' and Mesa Airlines' vision of flying dozens or even hundreds of 19-seat electric planes on regional routes by the end of the decade looks like a pipe dream."

Even when they do get the ES-19 up and running there are several factors that will limit it's usability. It's too slow. It's range is too short. I haven't seen any payload figures but I'd expect them to be limiting as well. The market that might work for the ES-19 is far too small for a manufacturer to make any money. The 19 seat market died 20 years ago and Heart are chasing a subset of a dead market.

I predict the ES-19 will be a project that will suck up significant pots of investor money and have nothing to show at the end. I wish them all the best, but I think their goal is wishful thinking and I would never put my money anywhere near something like that.

2030 is the likely date for short haul to be commercially viable. There’s a lot of work for airports to be prepared for commercial flight, most of them have a long way to go just on scope 1 and scope 2 emissions and don’t have the infeeds for significant electric flight.

Handle9

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#2748962 24-Jul-2021 00:33

tdgeek:

Yep, not easy here, but elsewhere such as Europe and obviously the US, where FF rules

Europe already has significant medium and high speed rail. The US is much harder - it has 50% of the population density of Europe.

I’d much rather travel by high speed rail than aircraft. It’s a much better experience and for trips of around 300kms the net travel time is generally similar to air travel.

tdgeek

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#2749030 24-Jul-2021 08:52

Technofreak: This in the news today

https://www.driven.co.nz/news/will-tiwai-point-become-the-world-s-first-green-hydrogen-factory/?utm_source=nzh&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=topbox

The last sentence explains where the initial drivers are for hydrogen power. If they get green hydrogen production sorted then I think hydrogen will become a mainstream energy source. Yes it is inefficient to produce but the energy to weight factor makes it so attractive for many uses.

I've long held the view that when nuclear fusion is perfected then we have access to abundant cheap power and hydrogen will be cheap to produce. At this time I believe hydrogen will become the energy of choice. Wether or not we have nuclear energy in New Zealand will be irrelevant. We will follow what the rest of the world does.

Is it suitable for aircraft? I guess thats a weight to energy equation?

Yes it may be inefficient but the power source is already here. Id like to know how much energy is used to search for oil, build rigs, build refineries, refine and transport it 12,000 miles, per litre. None of most of those costs are in Hydrogen.

Handle9

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#2749034 24-Jul-2021 09:30

tdgeek:
Technofreak: This in the news today

https://www.driven.co.nz/news/will-tiwai-point-become-the-world-s-first-green-hydrogen-factory/?utm_source=nzh&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=topbox

The last sentence explains where the initial drivers are for hydrogen power. If they get green hydrogen production sorted then I think hydrogen will become a mainstream energy source. Yes it is inefficient to produce but the energy to weight factor makes it so attractive for many uses.

I've long held the view that when nuclear fusion is perfected then we have access to abundant cheap power and hydrogen will be cheap to produce. At this time I believe hydrogen will become the energy of choice. Wether or not we have nuclear energy in New Zealand will be irrelevant. We will follow what the rest of the world does.

Is it suitable for aircraft? I guess thats a weight to energy equation?

Yes it may be inefficient but the power source is already here. Id like to know how much energy is used to search for oil, build rigs, build refineries, refine and transport it 12,000 miles, per litre. None of most of those costs are in Hydrogen.

No it's a kj/volume problem. Hydrogen has a kj/kg that is 3 X jet fuel. The problem with hydrogen is the space it takes and the way it has to be stored. It either has to be chilled or compressed to liquify it. It's energy density is quite poor per unit volume.

Sidestep

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#2749036 24-Jul-2021 09:32

tdgeek:

Id like to know how much energy is used to search for oil, build rigs, build refineries, refine and transport it 12,000 miles, per litre.

tdgeek

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#2749038 24-Jul-2021 09:40

Handle9:

No it's a kj/volume problem. Hydrogen has a kj/kg that is 3 X jet fuel. The problem with hydrogen is the space it takes and the way it has to be stored. It either has to be chilled or compressed to liquify it. It's energy density is quite poor per unit volume.

Thanks. I guess you then need stronger and thus heavier tanks, or refrigeration added, more weight.

Perhaps better suited to rail, where room can be made, and fuel infrastructure is minimal as restricted to a small set of hub rail stations.

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