NZ 2023 Election Thread

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#3147582 14-Oct-2023 22:27

quickymart:

I'm surprised that so many people were stupid enough to vote for Gunn with all of 2 MP's. Currently on 1% (so much for the "1 to 2 million votes" she was expecting) - but conversely Tamaki and his Freedoms umbrella bs outfit has only got 25% of her vote. I bet he's absolutely spitting tacks right now - and I bet he'll be giving a grumpy sermon at church tomorrow too 😃

Pleased to see most of the freedom/fringe parties aren't going to get anywhere near Parliament - for now, at least.

My pick - National + ACT going to win. Winston won't be needed, thank God.

Disappointed to see my local Labour MP is most likely going to lose his seat - I see him around the place doing a lot for the community, whereas the National guy before him was basically invisible until it was election time, and suddenly he was everywhere in 2020, knocking on doors to win votes after doing (essentially, IMO) nothing.

The lack of votes for Gunn, Tamaki and Co. might get them to realise how out of step with everyone they are and how little support they really have. It might smash their little echo chamber. Hopefully.

Agree about Winston. He has had an influence on the government of this country well out of balance to his actual electorate support for far too long.

Unfortunately some good people get flushed away with the tides of change. With MMP and the electorate and party vote, in theory these good guys should get to stay as the locals vote for the good guy/girl, but can choose otherwise with the party vote.

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ezbee

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#3147583 14-Oct-2023 22:33

Could Luxon do a John Key and charm 'Te Pati Maori' into the tent to give them a bit more to work with if any of the new ACT MP's go wild ?
They will need very strong cross party whipping to keep everyone in line if it gets to just a one seat difference.

If they wilt in final totals, then it will be a very fractious Parliament.

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#3147584 14-Oct-2023 22:42

ezbee:

Could Luxon do a John Key and charm 'Te Pati Maori' into the tent to give them a bit more to work with if any of the new ACT MP's go wild ?
They will need very strong cross party whipping to keep everyone in line if it gets to just a one seat difference.

If they wilt in final totals, then it will be a very fractious Parliament.

Despite what some claim I think the Maori Party achieved a lot of good stuff in coalition with National and I think the same is possible again. However the current Te Pati Maori MP's have been openly hostile to the idea of working with National. I cannot see it happening, plus Luxon isn't a deal maker like Key. Deal making was the big strength of Key.

Likewise the true Greens (not the Left Wing Radical Greens) could acheive a lot by working with National. There are Teal coalitions elsewhere.

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alexx

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#3147586 14-Oct-2023 22:58

Neither the Greens or Te Pati Maori would be able to work with David Seymour.
He's made it clear that he's against everything Te Pati Maori and the Greens support.

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Wombat1

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#3147588 14-Oct-2023 23:07

It looks like its a done deal for National and Act, stoked to see the results.

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#3147590 14-Oct-2023 23:14

People on the side of The People always ended up disappointed, in any case. They found that The People tended not to be grateful or appreciative or forward-thinking or obedient. The People tended to be small-minded and conservative and not very clever and were even distrustful of cleverness. And so the children of the revolution were faced with the age-old problem: it wasn't that you had the wrong kind of government, which was obvious, but that you had the wrong kind of people.

--Terry Pratchett, Night Watch

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alexx

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#3147593 15-Oct-2023 00:28

Results with almost 98% of the vote counted.
https://electionresults.govt.nz/

NAT(50)+ACT(11) = 61 seats
LAB(34)+GP(14)+TPM(4) = 52 seats
NZF = 8

Total = 121
61 seats needed to govern.

Is Luxon going to need to give Winston a call? Because governing with a margin of one isn't going to be easy.

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Handle9

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#3147595 15-Oct-2023 01:55

alexx:
Results with almost 98% of the vote counted.
https://electionresults.govt.nz/

NAT(50)+ACT(11) = 61 seats
LAB(34)+GP(14)+TPM(4) = 52 seats
NZF = 8

Total = 121
61 seats needed to govern.

Is Luxon going to need to give Winston a call? Because governing with a margin of one isn't going to be easy.

It’s extremely unlikely to be a margin of 1. The specials normally move 1-2 seats to the greens.

BarTender

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#3147598 15-Oct-2023 07:01

I am fairly confident that the voter turnout will be about 12% overall lower and 30% lower in the 18-24 in comparison to 2020.

So ultimately Labour screwed themself by not engaging with that demographic like they did last time and that resulted in a 15% swing to National.

Very interested in when the final numbers come out.

tdgeek

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#3147599 15-Oct-2023 07:13

Handle9:
alexx:

Results with almost 98% of the vote counted.
https://electionresults.govt.nz/

NAT(50)+ACT(11) = 61 seats
LAB(34)+GP(14)+TPM(4) = 52 seats
NZF = 8

Total = 121
61 seats needed to govern.

Is Luxon going to need to give Winston a call? Because governing with a margin of one isn't going to be easy.

It’s extremely unlikely to be a margin of 1. The specials normally move 1-2 seats to the greens.

Reading the morning news

But this Parliament will have at least 121 seats - probably 122, if Te Pāti Māori wins four electorates and after the Port Waikato by-election.

With 93% of votes counted, National had 39.32% of the vote - expected to get 50 seats.

ACT had 9.08%, expected to get 11 seats.

Together, that gives a National and ACT coalition just 61 seats - not a comfortable majority at this stage.

Dont quite follow that, how is 61 a majority of 122 seats?

tdgeek

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#3147601 15-Oct-2023 07:20

BarTender: I am fairly confident that the voter turnout will be about 12% overall lower and 30% lower in the 18-24 in comparison to 2020.

So ultimately Labour screwed themself by not engaging with that demographic like they did last time and that resulted in a 15% swing to National.

Very interested in when the final numbers come out.

My thoughts are:

Hipkins wasnt strong, and while Luxon wasnt in the first debate, he got a lot better, PR team assisted. That seemed to possibly override the continual non answering, and the regular campaign slogan responses
The tax cuts are a huge bribe, as KiwiSaver was. Both wont be delivered, but its money that people need right now. Even though for many, its not much at all
From what a commentator stated last night, all Covid Govts were rolled. Much the theme of the campaign, everything wrong here is Labour's 6 year fault, and not from any other contributing factors.

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#3147602 15-Oct-2023 07:20

@tdgeek One seat becomes speaker and National Act should select a NZ first member for that. The bi-election is expected to go to National. Given the mood of change special will probably support National Act but that's no certainty and there is approximately 500,000 specials. The make up of parlywont be known for several weeks.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

MikeB4

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#3147604 15-Oct-2023 07:26

The last Labour lead coalition term was a shambles with the nation feeling like a headless chook. Hipkins was a mediocre PM. Although the exact next government make up is still unclear the vote for change is very clear.

NZ Green over the next three years need to work hard and show they should be one of the leading parties displacing Labour to status of minor party.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.