BREXIT - what comes next?

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PhantomNVD

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#198149 28-Jun-2016 13:18

Please can we leave all the election reruns and regrets and slurs and lies and slander (etc) out of this thread and focus on the future as we think it may become?

1) will the EU 'punish' them to prevent others doing the same or will they fear their own voters should they do so?
2) will this spell the slow death of the EU as a gorvernmental organisation and a possible return to the shared market?
3) will there be a new general election in the UK before Article 50 is invoked?

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#1581912 28-Jun-2016 13:21

It really is uncharted territory, as the UK is the first to ever leave the EU. All any of us can do is predict what may happen in the next few years and beyond.

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PhantomNVD

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#1581917 28-Jun-2016 13:26

And that's exactly what might get the discussion onto a good track, what do you think could happen?

All the shadow cabinet quitting, but Corben saying he's not ... Where does this leave the 'shadow' government?

Could Cameron be 'forced' into enacting A50 by either the EU or his own government?

Should Cameron have the 'right' to not follow through on his own statement that he'd do it if they voted it? Will anyone want to oust him for doing so?

Who do you predict might be the next PM?

Satch

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#1581944 28-Jun-2016 13:45

PhantomNVD: Please can we leave all the election reruns and regrets and slurs and lies and slander (etc) out of this thread and focus on the future as we think it may become?

1) will the EU 'punish' them to prevent others doing the same or will they fear their own voters should they do so?
2) will this spell the slow death of the EU as a gorvernmental organisation and a possible return to the shared market?
3) will there be a new general election in the UK before Article 50 is invoked?

Depends on who you talk to.

SaltyNZ

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#1581950 28-Jun-2016 13:49

I think the EU will punish the UK somewhat. They can't let them get off scott free (no pun intended) because they do not wish to destabilise the rest of the EU. But they also can't punish them too much because it would hurt them just as badly.

I do believe the calls to immediately invoke Article 50 are perfectly reasonable, as the longer this indecisiveness continues, the more it hurts everyone. The fact that the Leave people had no actual clue what to do if they won is not the EU's problem and they shouldn't have to suffer for it.

Corben is lame duck, but the Labour leadership is just as poisoned a chalice as the Tory leadership will be. I don't know who will step up there. But I reckon Boris will have to basically quit politics to avoid having the Prime Ministership forced upon him. Nobody else is stupid enough to want that job now. He doesn't either - but he was the most vocal in support of Leave, so ... sucks to be him.

I think they are royally (pun also not intended) screwed in the short term, as a country. In the medium term the UK will fall apart as the nations all split, and in the long term Scotland and Wales will realise that was also a mistake, but England won't want them back any more than the EU would want England back. Northern Island will probably just burn to the ground, but once the smoke clears it will be incorporated into the Republic.

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mattwnz

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#1582004 28-Jun-2016 13:59

SaltyNZ:

I think the EU will punish the UK somewhat. They can't let them get off scott free (no pun intended) because they do not wish to destabilise the rest of the EU. But they also can't punish them too much because it would hurt them just as badly.

I do believe the calls to immediately invoke Article 50 are perfectly reasonable, as the longer this indecisiveness continues, the more it hurts everyone. The fact that the Leave people had no actual clue what to do if they won is not the EU's problem and they shouldn't have to suffer for it.

Corben is lame duck, but the Labour leadership is just as poisoned a chalice as the Tory leadership will be. I don't know who will step up there. But I reckon Boris will have to basically quit politics to avoid having the Prime Ministership forced upon him. Nobody else is stupid enough to want that job now. He doesn't either - but he was the most vocal in support of Leave, so ... sucks to be him.

I think they are royally (pun also not intended) screwed in the short term, as a country. In the medium term the UK will fall apart as the nations all split, and in the long term Scotland and Wales will realise that was also a mistake, but England won't want them back any more than the EU would want England back. Northern Island will probably just burn to the ground, but once the smoke clears it will be incorporated into the Republic.

Didn't he want to be PM? It wouldn't look good for him to campaign for Brexit, and possibly helped to get it through, and then decide to step down when the rubber hits the road. Maybe the Queen will have to take over as ruler. There was an article that said she was asking dinner guests for 3 reasons why the UK should stay in the EU.

One of the problems with Brexitis London, where many big global companies are headquartered in London due to being in the EU. Now that they aren't they have little option but to setup in other countries in the EU.

SaltyNZ

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#1582010 28-Jun-2016 14:11

He did want to be PM. But that was before it turned that - shockingly - a successful Leave vote with no plan what to do afterwards lead to the bottom falling out of the FTSE and the Pound and the sudden realisation that the entire Leave case was based on a bunch of mostly-very-obviously false premises.

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wellygary

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#1582020 28-Jun-2016 14:22

PhantomNVD:
Could Cameron be 'forced' into enacting A50 by either the EU or his own government?

Who do you predict might be the next PM?

Nope, A50 can only be invoked by the UK government, the EU have said it must come from the UK... but they are now goign to refuse to talk to the UK about any unoffical negotiations until A50 is envoked, and the UK are not going to envoke A50 until they get the new tory leader (PM)

But I think the call will grow for fresh elections, as many of the MPs in both parties are claiming they will vote against any legislation to envoke A50,

Fred99

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#1582076 28-Jun-2016 15:20

My predictions:

London is a financial centre for Europe. The downgrade of the UK credit rating, the loss for merchant banks to have access to the European market once they exit through "passporting" and particularly the fact that the Europeans would rather have the banking system "in house" - thus in Frankfurt, Paris, Dublin means that there's going to be no support at all from the EU - to make concessions to the UK to continue with the present arrangements. The EU wants those services themselves. History allowed the UK to hold a very strong position - but that just got thrown out the door. Financial services are a major part of the UK economy. You've seen the impact of this already by the collapse of share prices for Lloyds, RBS, Barclays. The large international banks had warned, and will carry out their warning to shift operations from London to Europe if Brexit was to happen.

The UK is not as important to the EU as the EU is to the UK. Size matters. 50% of UK exports in goods and services go to EU countries. Only 17% of exports in goods and services from the EU go to the UK. That places the UK in a very poor start position for negotiations of a "new deal" with a partner they just poked in the eye.

The EU may not survive. The resolve for the EU to survive will be strengthened by the exit of the UK. The UK may have done them a favour by leaving - if that initiates change to strengthen the EU.

The impact to NZ is unknown. It's premature to think that the UK will open up market access to NZ sheepmeat. About 50% of NZ existing lamb exports to Europe go to the UK, the remaining 50% to the continent. It's controlled by quota, the quota to the EU may remain unchanged, but minus the volume going to the UK. UK farmers need to gain access to Europe, CAPs are gone, no quotas in place, anything could happen - but it's about as unlikely that the UK will open up markets to NZ lamb as they will suddenly decide to buy all the butter and wool we can produce. IMO the potential biggest trade impact to NZ trade is a global one - if things get bad in UK and Europe, and that spreads to become global recession.

If there's recession and job losses in the UK - something I expect will happen - then bearing the brunt of this will be the poor, and minorities. That's just the way it works - nothing will change, they won't be opening new steel mills, shipyards, and carpet factories.

The best possible scenario (presuming brexit is inevitable) is that the UK negotiates a deal retaining almost everything they had, accepting the concessions they need, kind of a "Clayton's Brexit". If not, then they're going to be caned for many years.

MikeB4

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#1582081 28-Jun-2016 15:28

I would hope good sense and sanity will prevail but that does not go hand in hand with politics and financial markets.

Rikkitic

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#1582083 28-Jun-2016 15:34

I see major collapse, political instability, worldwide recession. At least the price of my gold will go up.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

MileHighKiwi

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#1582099 28-Jun-2016 15:48

There will be short term pain but there are 65 million people there and it's one of the worlds biggest economies; EU businesses will still want to sell goods to UK citizens. They will be able to negotiate free trade deals with the likes of India, Canada, other commonwealth countries and other developing economies, becoming a global player and not tied to an underperforming EU bloc. I believe change brings opportunity and I think it's an exciting time for the UK but it will be years before we will know if they made the right decision.

gzt

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#1582104 28-Jun-2016 15:59

UK rejoins a somewhat reformed EU in 10-15 years max. Maybe a lot sooner.

mattwnz

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#1582108 28-Jun-2016 16:02

Rikkitic:

I see major collapse, political instability, worldwide recession. At least the price of my gold will go up.

I don't think they ever fixed the problems behind the 2007 GFC. We still have record low interest rates trying to stimulate the economy, which has mainly just increase house prices, making NZers feel rich. I wonder if we will see a deposit guarantee on bank deposits, to stop a run on the banks, if there is a repeat of 2007. The NZ government don't want to see people taking all their savings out of the banks, which could happen, as there was the risk of it happening in 2007. At the moment, savers could end up losing a lot of money if a bank was to collapse. The way it currently works in NZ is savers take a haircut, to allow the bank to reopen, which is poor considering a bank deposit isn't an investment, it is simply a place to store cash, and hopefully not have it eaten away with bank fees and inflation.

mattwnz

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#1582110 28-Jun-2016 16:04

Rikkitic:

I see major collapse, political instability, worldwide recession. At least the price of my gold will go up.

I also see Trump becoming President. It is scary to see Trump voters being interviewed on the Kimmel show, as they don't seem to have much of an idea.

Linuxluver

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#1582126 28-Jun-2016 16:34

PhantomNVD: Please can we leave all the election reruns and regrets and slurs and lies and slander (etc) out of this thread and focus on the future as we think it may become?

1) will the EU 'punish' them to prevent others doing the same or will they fear their own voters should they do so?
2) will this spell the slow death of the EU as a gorvernmental organisation and a possible return to the shared market?
3) will there be a new general election in the UK before Article 50 is invoked?

If you are a Refuse-nik Brit who wants to take positive steps toward the future....and remain in the EU you can:

Get out in the streets and protest the travesty of such a decision being made by 51.9% of the 72% who voted. That's roughly the same 35% of all citizens who vote Tory plus the UKIP-ers.

That would be the first plan. This was a farce put up by a government that only 35% of British voters (never mind citizens) voted for. This is an actual strategy and it could work - as it worked in Eqypt when the majority elected an Islamic party to government....that 48% of voters didn't want. They aren't the government today.

Secondary strategy would be to seek guidance from the EU about how the EU might handle Brits who wished to remain in the EU. They currently have every right to go and work and live there today. Can they register their disaffiliation with the 51.9% decision and choose to personally remain in the EU by just.....going there? "I didn't leave the EU, my country left me..."

Third strategy is to shift to Scotland and support moves to separate from England...and remain in the EU. A citizen has every right to do that. No restrictions. Similarly Northern Ireland, but Scotland is better (IMHO - been to both) and Scotland is much closer to calling it quits with the UK. If you stay in Scotland you may still be able to live anywhere in the EU after the Eng-exit.

I see a number of avenues open to people who do not want the 51.9% outcome imposed on them. They never wanted the government that put up the referendum they didn't want that delivered the result they don't want.

There are other options.

Now...for those who supported leaving......for goodness sake don't vote Conservative. Look at the mess they have already made of the NHS and education...and now this. More than enough of that already.

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