Whinery:
MikeB4: Increases in earnings will not help. This would fuel inflstion, increase unemployment in other words 70s and 80s revisited.
An increase in earnings would certainly help. Greater income doesn't mean inflation. The two are linked by common sense, but no in a real sense. The problem with the "common sense" evaluation is a macro-economic look at the long-term. When 20 years have passed, and inflation was 2%, everything will cost 50% more, and you'll be making 50% more. post hoc ergo propter hoc. But there's a reason that's considered a logical fallacy.
Yes, when wages go up slowly and over time, they seem to correlate with inflation.
But if wages were to go up 10% here one year (with no other significant changes). The inflation would not be 10% that year, or the year after. Some finite, NZ only resources may go up, like land. But not everything, and not the price of building. There are already those that are working on eliminating labour from the cost of housing. So if the cost of building a house went up 10% due to labour, but the materials stayed the same, we'd see a use of the labour-reduced building methods.
What is missed is there's a simple fix to the crisis.
The Government could buy 5000 hectares of land near Auckland. Develop that with 20 homes per hectare, and a target of 50% development (defined by people living in side the homes) in 5 years, and 100% development in 20 years.
Build all the homes to a high-quality 5-star energy long-term eco-friendly standard, and for a target price of $200,000 each. Keep back 10% as a rental stock, and sell the rest to fund the whole project.
Put a rail spur through it, so the detached and self-contained community could easily commute to Auckland.
1) Make a profit
2) Solve a crisis.
But the current homeowners and developers hate that plan. The edge development in Auckland is targeting $1M per house (north, closer to $750k south and west). When they can make so much per house now, blocking affordable housing is in their best interest. And if there was ample housing available, the unsustainable traectory of the current housing market would stall, making the homeowners unhappy.
And there's a perception that this would benefit the immigrants, and poor, so some are against it because it seems "unfair" to someone who just bought an over-priced $500k 15 year old house, now worse than a $200k new house.
There would be enough negativity towards solving the crisis that I don't think it'll be solved. Just delayed. Shuffle credit terms in ways that make no difference, but show an appearance of trying. It doesn't actually hurt anyone or help anyone, but feels like doing "something.
Good to see there is an easy fix!
Wages up 10%. That will affect inflation a lot, including the labour to build, and the cost of materials. There are many people involved in producing materials. Forestry workers, 2x4 makers, transporters, warehousers, and so on. Not to mention export competitiveness.
If the Govt built a town, with smaller, closer homes, it will become a poor area. Maybe a slum town. I cant see how you compare an over priced 500k home to a Govt built 200k home.
To my knowledge, the Govt isn't a national, and nationalised home builder. Why should the Govt solve this issue? Especially by building a slum town. When you tamper with supply and demand thats a problem, its artificial. The Govt can do other things to help, such as better manage consents, give incentives for businesses to decentralise from AKL.
Are house building costs way out of touch with the real cost of building? Or is the issue the cost of land in AKL? Maybe the Govt could become a building company,not for AKL, but to build the same houses everyone else builds, but at a fairer price, if thats the issue, to check excess profit making home builders. Given some builders have gone bust maybe thats not the issue.
If I was the Govt, I would look at measures to decentralise AKL as the place you have to be. I work from home now, push that, as many employers do not need to be tied to an office. Reduce demand for living in AKL. People pay the prices due to demand, if thats the case, let it be, most people can choose where to live by moving away, pocket some equity, and improve their lot. Let supply and demand do that. Should prices ease or fall, so be it. Those that bought on a hot market took a risk. Should their equity be lost or reduced should prices tumble, and by crash we are talking 10 to 20% max, the Govt can underwrite the mortgage, so the homeowner keeps paying, the banks keep getting paid, and in time that is resolved.