Is there an Auckland housing recession guess thread in place

Forums › Off topic › Is there an Auckland housing recession guess thread in place

TeaLeaf

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#180715 18-Sep-2015 23:59

Just curious.

Or do we really ALL think we are not like the US, ireland, Australia?

We make Milk for f sake an in Auckland we spend that money we make on milk.

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#1390014 19-Sep-2015 00:20

Define housimg recession.

Brumfondl

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#1390016 19-Sep-2015 00:21

I'm guess they mean when the bubble bursts and people have 400k mortgages on 300k properties...

jarledb

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#1390017 19-Sep-2015 00:25

400k mortgages? Have you seen Auckland prices? I don't think you can get a shed in Auckland for 400k

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TeaLeaf

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#1390026 19-Sep-2015 01:13

haha yeah $800k mortgages on $400k CV properties. Good old GV, may hold you back but certainly doesnt get ahead of your stupidity.

MikeB4

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#1390043 19-Sep-2015 06:48

I sincerely hope not, hopefully a slow down but a burst will see the Greece/Spain syndrome and we will all suffer no matter where we live and we wont be able to afford milk.

Jase2985

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#1390047 19-Sep-2015 06:57

i dont think it will burst, it will stagnate and maybe drop a little but it will never drop like you are describing.

there are 40,000 people coming into the auckland region every year, and there are less than 10,000 houses being built, demand is more than the supply.

our stats are the other way round, $350k mortgage on $850k CV, and we brought in 2011

mudguard

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#1390118 19-Sep-2015 10:18

You wonder if the council made GV's closer to RV's whether that would cool it... Would certainly make the council some money! We've kind of given up to be honest, I don't have the time to look but there is some uncertainty over my job. Interest rates on term deposits certainly suck at the moment.
As someone mentioned, it would probably take some external force for anything actually bad to happen, prices could flatline or slow, but with the numbers migrating into Auckland from overseas and around the rest of NZ it probably won't change.

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Geektastic

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#1390131 19-Sep-2015 10:35

I'm pretty sure that the government of the day would work extremely hard to prevent a wholesale collapse. It would be ruinous for the economy to have piles of people defaulting and so on.

Of course, ask anyone old enough and they will tell you that property is cyclical so negative equity today will be positive equity again tomorrow if your pocket is long enough to ride it out.

Geektastic

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#1390133 19-Sep-2015 10:37

mudguard: You wonder if the council made GV's closer to RV's whether that would cool it... Would certainly make the council some money! We've kind of given up to be honest, I don't have the time to look but there is some uncertainty over my job. Interest rates on term deposits certainly suck at the moment.
As someone mentioned, it would probably take some external force for anything actually bad to happen, prices could flatline or slow, but with the numbers migrating into Auckland from overseas and around the rest of NZ it probably won't change.

More to the point why not do away with the ridiculous method of basing how much local tax you pay on the value of the building you live in?

Buildings in no way influence the amount or cost of services local authorities provide: people do.

The only sane way is a per capita charge for each adult living at an address. Or local income tax.

Fred99

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#1390141 19-Sep-2015 10:55

I don't believe that projected demand will bolster prices during the correction - whenever that might be.
Capital gain (ie "investment") is the main driver for property buyers. Present prices at an unprecedented multiple of income (>9x) - a very dangerous situation and indicative that prices are overvalued by double based on historical averages, or incomes are only half of what they should be - LOL.
There's an assumption made (by property "optimists") that the "event" which triggers the "correction" won't interrupt population flow and/or that government will continue to have a laissez-faire attitude to regional development, and/or that immigration should or would continue at present high net inflow when parts of the economy are stressed.

There's also an assumption made that the past will repeat. In past "corrections" property value reduced/stagnated during bursts of high inflation. That wasn't as bad as it sounds - almost painless (apart from the high interest rates - but nobody in their right mind would have had debt levels relative to income as high as many seem to think is okay today). So long as you could meet your payments, you came out the other end with a higher income:debt ratio - your debt stayed the same or reduced slightly, but after say 5 years of average 8% inflation, your income had increased ~50%, your mortgage payments reduced in real terms as inflation/interest rates dropped, property prices eventually "caught up", but importantly your % equity in the family home increased dramatically. It was "free money".
That isn't going to happen now.
The banks also have a little more security here than was the case in the US post GFC - where those with "negative equity" could "walk" - leaving the bank with the negative equity problem. Here, your only "out" is bankruptcy.

Lastly I suppose that while Auckland is NZ largest city, it's actually not a big city at all. Comparisons with Sydney/Melbourne are laughable. Sydney had Auckland's population 100 years ago. Auckland prices are so ridiculously out of whack globally, given NZ population density, city size, NZ incomes.

A crash is coming - I'm highly confident of that. A "correction" in terms of a stagflation induced pause or small contraction in (inflation adjusted) property price inflation just isn't going to happen "the way it used to do".

TeaLeaf

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#1390170 19-Sep-2015 11:53

What makes me interested we have adults now who have grown up in 2 decades of ridiculos growth that dont remember doubling your capital growth every 8-10 years is the norm.

They also wont be aware that price do and HAVE gone down in NZ and Im not referring to GFC smidges, which was actually a false representation of reality due to government intervening.

So we have a lot of people going to Auckland, ummmm, why? What do they make there? Why arent these people being diverted to ohter cities.

Despite increase in population that doesnt equate to a property price increases. Yeah the guy showing up to wash plates can afford a mortgage of $2m. Come on.

Surely the government has control on immigration and thresholds for where migrants can settle?

We do have capital gains tax now like Australia right? That should have been a given 15 years ago. I can buy a coke and I get taxed yet I can make an income dealing in property but not pay tax, what the....

Im with Fred99

TeaLeaf

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#1390196 19-Sep-2015 13:12

Just to add to what Fred said about income.

Income is a major factor in affordability. No wonder Auckland is listed as one of the most unfortable cities in the world to live. Our incomes are stagnant. My Mrs got 1% but RE went up 50% and she has 8 years full time education at top universities in the world, PHDs, and earns what I would call a junior wage in IT.

So, these immigrants. What are they going to do for jobs to afford $1m minimum housing? On a combined income of $200k Id personally not borrow $800k, let alone a minimum wage income. Who is going to stay in a city they cant afford and do all the low income necessary jobs? Its just a massive infrastructure melt down waiting.

And even if these immigrant to Auck stats are true. My guess is they will leave Auckland and that in itself will assist in the collapse of the market.

The only answer I see is a MASSIVE reduction in house pricing in line with historical figures of 8% per annum. Thats going to hurt some people, but some people is better than everybody.

Just add it all up and google recession. I personally dont want to sound a pessimist but I consider this a reality.

Geektastic

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#1390197 19-Sep-2015 13:12

Don't assume that people buying houses are driven by curious industrial revolution ideas such as what is 'made'.

London makes very little, but is one of the most profitable service centres in the world - and has huge property prices and increases. NZ should be aiming to capitalise on service provision utilising the internet as it negates the tyranny of distance which has such an effect on transporting manufactured goods.

If you have skilled migrants who are accountants, lawyers, architects, engineers etc etc they are going to go where the work is - and that is never going to be Gore.

Essentially, all other cities in NZ are now IMV relegated to secondary status and within 25 years over 50% of NZ population will be in Auckland. It's far too late to correct that now (should have started 20 years ago) and that is going to drive the housing market.

CGT will do nothing but increase prices and enrich the government - if you look around the world, you will see no market where CGT reduces property prices. Sellers simply take it into account when working out what they will accept - net result is price increases over time.

afe66

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#1390211 19-Sep-2015 13:33

TeaLeaf:
So we have a lot of people going to Auckland, ummmm, why? What do they make there? Why arent these people being diverted to ohter cities.

Because there is no will to think differently, it seems every time there are announcements of "job restructuring", it seems the jobs are being moved to Auckland.
A couple of weeks ago NZpost announced it was closing the call centre in chch and moving it to auckland (!)
If there was a job which could be done anywhere in the country I would have thought it would have been a call centre person..... no no it must be in auckland.

As someone who lives in the South island I keep an ear our when there are job losses/restructuring and it seems that if the job isnt being ended completely, its being moved to Auckland.
Wasnt one of the claimed benefit of the fibre network was to allow all sorts of services and jobs to be more independent in their location. I fear that instead of having more jobs outside Auckalnd serviceing the country, it will just be more people in Auckland services everyone else.

A.

(Mortgage free)

TeaLeaf

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#1390243 19-Sep-2015 14:27

Im all for auckland making money with commerce, but what?

And as for skilled migrants, My Mrs is well over skilled to the migrants you chose to list (and leave the rest out) and we cant afford Auckland. Again who is going to do the hard low income work if they cant live in Auckland?

I dont think its too late for NZ to stop its Auckland super city only city policy. Ive visited 6 really nice small cities in the north Island and of them 5 id rather live in. Auckland is pretending to be a metropolis but what economically will drive this new "Rome"? Migrants, rofl.

If NZ really does stay on this path, I cant see it lasting long.

Yes Afe thats the point, Auckland is a service/consumer city by and large (and Im not writing off small business, Im just saying in general). What was discussed before you is Auckland becoming a financial hub. A city that makes money from money. A city that makes money from technology. But who, where, why? Dont see it.

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