New Zealand housing market (particularly Auckland)

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#2091323 16-Sep-2018 09:53

Batman:

quickymart:

I was in Pukekohe yesterday and looked at some houses out there. Much cheaper than Auckland but then I guess you have to contend with a fairly significant commute. Can't win really :(

IF (and you really have to check out the city planning) they build infrastructure, for example a rail to auckland, or some other new things eg a new shopping centre or other commercial developments, then prices will go up to match what you'd get in other suburbs.

but don't quote me, this is just my observation.

Agree. Outer areas will become non outer areas in time. Small towns are also an opportunity. Land must be cheaper, if someone, somehow can boost smaller towns with infrastructure, support a couple of larger manufacturing businesses to set up shop, thats also a way forward. Chicken and egg situation though.

quickymart

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#2091324 16-Sep-2018 10:00

While on the way there I passed through Paerata. I remember reading somewhere a while ago that that area is being touted as a good place for a new (large) housing development as it's right on the southern train line and not too far from Papakura. Doesn't help me on the Shore very much, but I thought it would be a good idea :)

Batman

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#2091402 16-Sep-2018 12:25

the other thing is to buy land in a new place, usually much cheaper than developed places, need about 10% deposit, balance when the land is titled. usually it will then increase in price once the land is actually developed. not sure why. then you can take your time to build, maybe figure out how to build yourself! not sure how people do it, I met someone who was building his own house and he was a sport instructor. well that's what he said anyway, i didn't dig too deep.

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#2091472 16-Sep-2018 15:31

Batman:

the other thing is to buy land in a new place, usually much cheaper than developed places, need about 10% deposit, balance when the land is titled. usually it will then increase in price once the land is actually developed. not sure why. then you can take your time to build, maybe figure out how to build yourself! not sure how people do it, I met someone who was building his own house and he was a sport instructor. well that's what he said anyway, i didn't dig too deep.

Something to keep in mind are the deposit requirements on bare land. If there are no services it can be up to 50%!!

mattwnz

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#2091517 16-Sep-2018 17:19

alasta:

Starlith:

Also depends on how much risk you want to take on in comparison to what you have in the bank and what you are buying. For me I consider anything in the $350k+ range to be very scary if I don't have over half of it already paid down. Thats why me and my partner haven't bought in yet but are considering moving out of Wellington and changing jobs to get on the ladder. Recent rent rises in comparative to our income have made us realise that we are wasting our time and money which ultimately affects our happiness outside of work so we're on the lookout for new jobs and location.

I hate to say it, but as someone who lives in Wellington I probably wouldn't stay here if I felt that I were struggling to get ahead financially. It feels like the cost of housing here has really skyrocketed over the last two or three years.

It's strange to think that it wasn't that long ago that John Key was telling us that Wellington was 'dying'!

I think one reason for this is because many people have abandoned the idea of buying in Auckland, so Wellington is seen as a place to live that has quite high average wages. So you get the ripple effect as house prices rise outwards from the main location. But you also get investors that are buying up around NZ. I think Wellingtons shopping areas aren't strong, but in terms of government jobs and companies like Xero, it is fairly strong.

Christchurch prices also rose a lot after the quakes, but prices seem to have really fallen back.

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#2091594 16-Sep-2018 17:58

Well I just sold my 80sqm 3 bdrm 1 bthrom, 500sqm single garage place in Wets Auckland for $270,000.

Ok, to my son.

But still, market value would be about CV now - $580,000, not huge. Yes it isn't big but it's on it';s own section, not jpined to another, own driveway, enough garden (with actual garden - for kiddies and not falling apart or anything nasty.

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#2091615 16-Sep-2018 18:25

pctek:

Well I just sold my 80sqm 3 bdrm 1 bthrom, 500sqm single garage place in Wets Auckland for $270,000.

Ok, to my son.

But still, market value would be about CV now - $580,000, not huge. Yes it isn't big but it's on it';s own section, not jpined to another, own driveway, enough garden (with actual garden - for kiddies and not falling apart or anything nasty.

Big garage!! :-)

Nice one.

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#2091660 16-Sep-2018 19:30

Now to me, that kind of price is something I could work with. Yes, yes, I know it's not realistic now.

Apparently (I was also told) house prices being so high is meant to be really good for the economy. Sucks if you're looking to buy, but if you're a property owner, you're in the money.

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#2091663 16-Sep-2018 19:34

quickymart:

Now to me, that kind of price is something I could work with. Yes, yes, I know it's not realistic now.

Apparently (I was also told) house prices being so high is meant to be really good for the economy. Sucks if you're looking to buy, but if you're a property owner, you're in the money.

Im not sure how. If you have two, then yes, sell up, buy a Lambo

Ive been a big benefactor as have many. I still live in one house, nothing has really changed.

Buy a house for 100k, it rises to 500k, sell and buy a 500k house, that type of thing.

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#2093314 19-Sep-2018 17:16

I know no one can predict the future, but any guesses what would happen to house prices if there was another Global Financial Crisis as was the case 10 years ago? Up, down or stay the same?

mattwnz

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#2093391 19-Sep-2018 19:19

quickymart: I know no one can predict the future, but any guesses what would happen to house prices if there was another Global Financial Crisis as was the case 10 years ago? Up, down or stay the same?

I think it comes down to how much the banks will be willing to lend to people, based on what they can afford to service, as to much a house is worth. Investors all around the world have much money, with nowhere to put it that has good safe returns,. So people have put it into the bank, which isn't a great return, but people seem to think it is safe. Then the bank then wants somewhere to invest it so they can make their margin, and they have been lending it to people to buy houses. So it has become a vicious cycle. I don't think it will be a soft landing for some. The rise in house prices hasn't really benefited many, apart from perhaps banks and real estate agents. Because unless you are cashing up, or buying multiple properties to buy and sell, you have to buy and sell a house in the same market.

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#2093418 19-Sep-2018 19:51

quickymart: I know no one can predict the future, but any guesses what would happen to house prices if there was another Global Financial Crisis as was the case 10 years ago? Up, down or stay the same?

We bought out first home in 2009, just after the GFC. We paid $305k at a mortgagee auction and 5.99% interest.

The previous owners bought it just 18 months earlier, at the peak of the cycle, for $380k. At that point the average 2 year mortgage was about 9-10%.

It changed fairly quickly.

We tried buying two years earlier, so glad we didn't. You might be able to do something similar because when internet rates rise a lot of people wont be able to afford the increase, there should be some good buys available at mortgagee auctions.

tdgeek

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#2093420 19-Sep-2018 19:54

quickymart: I know no one can predict the future, but any guesses what would happen to house prices if there was another Global Financial Crisis as was the case 10 years ago? Up, down or stay the same?

I agree with @mattnz

Those in homes right now, who cares if they go up or down, your mortgage is the same. If interest rates increase, the newer buyers will pay more, as interest is a high component of a new mortgage payment. Banks don't lend on the basis of foreclosing. They have options, they can give holidays, they can extend the term, the Govt can step in and allow longer terms and other easing to avoid forced sales.

The market will ease if interest rates rise, that will ease prices, but also make your purchase more costly by way of higher interest.

Make a plan, use one income for living, one for saving and SAVE HARD. 3 year plan. If you can save one income for 3 years, thats my suggestion.

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#2093423 19-Sep-2018 19:59

MileHighKiwi:
quickymart: I know no one can predict the future, but any guesses what would happen to house prices if there was another Global Financial Crisis as was the case 10 years ago? Up, down or stay the same?

We bought out first home in 2009, just after the GFC. We paid $305k at a mortgagee auction and 5.99% interest.

The previous owners bought it just 18 months earlier, at the peak of the cycle, for $380k. At that point the average 2 year mortgage was about 9-10%.

It changed fairly quickly.

We tried buying two years earlier, so glad we didn't. You might be able to do something similar because when internet rates rise a lot of people wont be able to afford the increase, there should be some good buys available at mortgagee auctions.

That right, but if you look back, interest rates pre and post GFC did not change a lot. I checked that last week. 9% sounds too much based on what I read, it covered the major banks.

Prices wont change a lot in a GFC, as NZ as last time are very insulated, our banks are not exposed as other countries are. Plus Kiwi's will say, hey my house is wirth 800k, I'm not selling less than that and so on. I don't see a GFC forcing a big sell out by the masses.

mattwnz

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#2093429 19-Sep-2018 20:19

MileHighKiwi:
quickymart: I know no one can predict the future, but any guesses what would happen to house prices if there was another Global Financial Crisis as was the case 10 years ago? Up, down or stay the same?

We bought out first home in 2009, just after the GFC. We paid $305k at a mortgagee auction and 5.99% interest.

The previous owners bought it just 18 months earlier, at the peak of the cycle, for $380k. At that point the average 2 year mortgage was about 9-10%.

It changed fairly quickly.

We tried buying two years earlier, so glad we didn't. You might be able to do something similar because when internet rates rise a lot of people wont be able to afford the increase, there should be some good buys available at mortgagee auctions.

My major concern, and perhaps a concern for many home owners with a large mortgage, is what happens if interest rates double. It probably won't happen overnight, but in 5 years time it potentially could be double what it is today. That is when people potentially could get into negative equity if house prices drop, and the house is worth less than the mortgage. That is when banks get worried.

I think a lot of people are now unfortunately locked out of he housing market at this point of time due to what has happened post GFC and over the last 10 years of inaction. That will hopefully change over time though. Even

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