bfginger: I'd sort out the wall insulation and double glazing before installing a ducted heat pimp. Ceiling and underfloor are half of the heat loss but heat will still be streaming through those windows and walls. Many underfloor and older ceiling insulation installations are ineffective too. If you read this forum often you'll know standard NZ windows joinery is poor quality and won't be much of an improvement over old wooden single glazed windows.
An installer will want to install a bigger system than what would be necessary if it was fully insulated. 16kW is big and most 1920s houses are modestly sized.
Some ducted heat pump systems aren't very efficient so look at the coefficient of performance (COP) rating in the model specifications.
Perhaps this would make sense if we were wealthy (and if this was true we'd be building a new house!), but I'd be amazed if you can demonstrate it would be cost-effective for us to insulate the walls (probably requiring the re-gibbing of every room, as I wouldn't touch the foam stuff we had put in our last house) and have the windows double-glazed. I can't cope with modern window frames in an old house, whether or not such new frames are more efficient. The alternative is that which my brother looked at having done to the windows in his early 1900s house (ie existing frames rebated etc), and the cost was prohibitive enough for him to give up on the idea. I'd imagine it'll be the same for our house.
As such, I'm satisfied we've done the most practical and affordable attempts to improve insulation, and therefore are happy that heating's where it's at for our situation.
The COP of the model we're looking at is 3.96, which seems within the acceptable range for ducted systems?