Netflix to crack down on unblockers

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#1472669 16-Jan-2016 15:46

If they'd done this a year ago, they'd have lost us all as subscribers. Now that we have a (lite) version in NZ, they hope to that - pissed off though we are - we'll keep subscribing. Sorry, NF - the NZ offering is not worth it.

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#1472686 16-Jan-2016 16:03

ockel:
MediaLight: Just putting my 2 cents in i believe they have to say this to keep their content partner agreements happy.

But it will be a slow move forward and DNS providers will be even quicker to keep their subscribers.

However if netflix start to block via the location of the credit card registered to pay for subscriptions this could be an issue...however Netflix makes too much money off people to go risking this.

I say we will be fine...or should i say the geeks out there will be, maybe just the average joe that will suffer.

If Netflix were really serious instead of this half hearted effort then surely we'd see a repeat of the HBONow threats:

"Dear HBO NOW User: It has come to our attention that you may have signed up for and viewed video content on the HBO NOW streaming service from outside of the authorized service area (the United States, including D.C. and certain US territories). We would like to take this opportunity to remind you that the HBO NOW streaming service is only available to residents of the United States, for use within the United States. Any other access is prohibited by our Terms of Use. If you feel that you have received this message in error, and that you have both met the eligibility requirements for HBO NOW and have been using the service within the United States, please call us at 1-855-366-2183. If we do not hear from you by April 21, we will proceed with deactivating your HBO NOW account without further notice to you. Please note that it is your responsibility to cancel any automatic billing with your Subscription Provider to avoid incurring charges for any future months."

what ever happened to that anyway??? http://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=151&topicid=171148&page_no=5

And with the actual and threat of account deactivation of streaming from Netflix it might make life difficult for the subscriber but Netflix illustrates to the content providers that they mean business. Not kinda-mean-business as they'd currently saying.
Of course driving users to piracy over streaming increases Netflix's ability to negotiate with the content providers....... short term pain for Netflix, long term gain as a global content monopoly.

iirc, there was a big outcry in the US over this. Apparently quite a few people over there received these notifications due to using DNS services in an effort to help anonymise their internet traffic (no trust in the NSA).

Dratsab

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#1472687 16-Jan-2016 16:03

ockel:
MediaLight: Just putting my 2 cents in i believe they have to say this to keep their content partner agreements happy.

But it will be a slow move forward and DNS providers will be even quicker to keep their subscribers.

However if netflix start to block via the location of the credit card registered to pay for subscriptions this could be an issue...however Netflix makes too much money off people to go risking this.

I say we will be fine...or should i say the geeks out there will be, maybe just the average joe that will suffer.

If Netflix were really serious instead of this half hearted effort then surely we'd see a repeat of the HBONow threats:

"Dear HBO NOW User: It has come to our attention that you may have signed up for and viewed video content on the HBO NOW streaming service from outside of the authorized service area (the United States, including D.C. and certain US territories). We would like to take this opportunity to remind you that the HBO NOW streaming service is only available to residents of the United States, for use within the United States. Any other access is prohibited by our Terms of Use. If you feel that you have received this message in error, and that you have both met the eligibility requirements for HBO NOW and have been using the service within the United States, please call us at 1-855-366-2183. If we do not hear from you by April 21, we will proceed with deactivating your HBO NOW account without further notice to you. Please note that it is your responsibility to cancel any automatic billing with your Subscription Provider to avoid incurring charges for any future months."

what ever happened to that anyway??? http://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=151&topicid=171148&page_no=5

And with the actual and threat of account deactivation of streaming from Netflix it might make life difficult for the subscriber but Netflix illustrates to the content providers that they mean business. Not kinda-mean-business as they'd currently saying.
Of course driving users to piracy over streaming increases Netflix's ability to negotiate with the content providers....... short term pain for Netflix, long term gain as a global content monopoly.

ockel

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#1472688 16-Jan-2016 16:07

hagfish: If they'd done this a year ago, they'd have lost us all as subscribers. Now that we have a (lite) version in NZ, they hope to that - pissed off though we are - we'll keep subscribing. Sorry, NF - the NZ offering is not worth it.

Lets say the 20,000-30,000 unblockers in NZ cut Netflix completely. Thats cUSD3.6m per annum. Of annual revenues of greater than USD6.6bn. Tiny. Do you really think they'll care? Globally, who knows. But if it drives a greater degree of piracy then its not Netflix's problem. In fact its the content producers problem who may then be more likely to do global deals.

Thought I might do the global math. If 30k represents the NZ households that use unblockers then thats about 2%. There are about 140m households (pre 2016 expansion) that have roughly the same library as NZ. c2.8m households using unblockers on a 2% penetration. It'd take c5% off Netflix's revenue if they all unsubscribed due to this "effort".
If Netflix are doing this to get access to China with its 179m households........ wouldn't it be worth it?

Sixth Labour Government - "Vision without Execution is just Hallucination"

Rikkitic

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#1472726 16-Jan-2016 17:18

I have accounts with Unotelly and Stremr.TV (free). I just checked both and both are working just fine with Netflix USA. I don't actually subscribe to Netflix in any country, but I can see where they think I am by going to the free trial page.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

SaltyNZ

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#1472728 16-Jan-2016 17:21

MikeB4:
Hahaha I just went back to Sky.

Yeah, and the half hour of ads in between every twenty minutes of programming gives you plenty of time for toilet breaks, reading Tolstoy etc. too!

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These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

SaltyNZ

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#1472729 16-Jan-2016 17:23

Rikkitic: I have accounts with Unotelly and Stremr.TV (free). I just checked both and both are working just fine with Netflix USA. I don't actually subscribe to Netflix in any country, but I can see where they think I am by going to the free trial page.

Netflix working fine here (region Canada) ten minutes ago via Unblock-US.

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These comments are my own and do not represent the opinions of 2degrees.

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MikeB4

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#1472732 16-Jan-2016 17:25

SaltyNZ:
MikeB4:
Hahaha I just went back to Sky.

Yeah, and the half hour of ads in between every twenty minutes of programming gives you plenty of time for toilet breaks, reading Tolstoy etc. too!

Does feel that way sometimes.

TeaLeaf

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#1472740 16-Jan-2016 17:36

how could they block by credit card country location? i can use my visa internationally, likewise my german or aussie visas. thats why i pay a fee to have the things.

i tell you, along with a livestream sport subscription, online TV kills the sky tv deals. surely they have to get with the times. id be happy to subscribe to sky, if they provided more content on demand, no adds and sport for 1/3 the current package prices.

Rikkitic

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#1472751 16-Jan-2016 17:57

Just to dislocate this thread entirely, has anyone ever stopped to ask just how much profit the content providers should expect to be entitled to? In the days of music downloading, the recording industry was weeping over the unfed mouths of all the starving artists' children and banging on and on about how much money was being lost to piracy and how that just made it utterly impossible for artists to create at all!

Now we have a situation where content providers are already making a profit on their home turf through normal sales, and then trying to increase that profit by selling the same thing over and over again based on accidents of geography and politics. Yet if they are already in profit, and the rest is just cream, it seems a little excessive to be complaining about geo-unblocking. How many times should they be entitled to sell the same thing? I say sell it once to the whole world, be satisfied with the enormous income that produces, and go easy on the greed for a change.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

ockel

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#1472752 16-Jan-2016 18:08

Rikkitic: Just to dislocate this thread entirely, has anyone ever stopped to ask just how much profit the content providers should expect to be entitled to? In the days of music downloading, the recording industry was weeping over the unfed mouths of all the starving artists' children and banging on and on about how much money was being lost to piracy and how that just made it utterly impossible for artists to create at all!

Now we have a situation where content providers are already making a profit on their home turf through normal sales, and then trying to increase that profit by selling the same thing over and over again based on accidents of geography and politics. Yet if they are already in profit, and the rest is just cream, it seems a little excessive to be complaining about geo-unblocking. How many times should they be entitled to sell the same thing? I say sell it once to the whole world, be satisfied with the enormous income that produces, and go easy on the greed for a change.

But they do just sell it once to the whole world except that instead of it being one sale to one buyer its one sale to each buyer (edit: the buyers just being in each territory). You're advocating that the content seller should just accept that the price for the US is the same as the price for the whole world?

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rugrat

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#1472753 16-Jan-2016 18:09

ockel:
hagfish: If they'd done this a year ago, they'd have lost us all as subscribers. Now that we have a (lite) version in NZ, they hope to that - pissed off though we are - we'll keep subscribing. Sorry, NF - the NZ offering is not worth it.

Lets say the 20,000-30,000 unblockers in NZ cut Netflix completely. Thats cUSD3.6m per annum. Of annual revenues of greater than USD6.6bn. Tiny. Do you really think they'll care? Globally, who knows. But if it drives a greater degree of piracy then its not Netflix's problem. In fact its the content producers problem who may then be more likely to do global deals.

Thought I might do the global math. If 30k represents the NZ households that use unblockers then thats about 2%. There are about 140m households (pre 2016 expansion) that have roughly the same library as NZ. c2.8m households using unblockers on a 2% penetration. It'd take c5% off Netflix's revenue if they all unsubscribed due to this "effort".
If Netflix are doing this to get access to China with its 179m households........ wouldn't it be worth it?

It's more people then New Zealand households. If they succeed in blocking possible that they'll lose millions. It disadvantages every region with limited content, which I guess is most of the world.

If they succeed in blocking I'll only subscribe when on holidays, after all only monthly contract, and that's only if haven't found something better.

It's not pre 2016 expansion any more so if someone doesn't join that still counts as lost customer, therefore could be a lot more then 140 million households.

MikeB4

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#1472776 16-Jan-2016 18:37

Rikkitic: Just to dislocate this thread entirely, has anyone ever stopped to ask just how much profit the content providers should expect to be entitled to? In the days of music downloading, the recording industry was weeping over the unfed mouths of all the starving artists' children and banging on and on about how much money was being lost to piracy and how that just made it utterly impossible for artists to create at all!

Now we have a situation where content providers are already making a profit on their home turf through normal sales, and then trying to increase that profit by selling the same thing over and over again based on accidents of geography and politics. Yet if they are already in profit, and the rest is just cream, it seems a little excessive to be complaining about geo-unblocking. How many times should they be entitled to sell the same thing? I say sell it once to the whole world, be satisfied with the enormous income that produces, and go easy on the greed for a change.

Simple, they are free to make as much profit as they can legally.

ockel

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#1472802 16-Jan-2016 19:52

rugrat:
ockel:
hagfish: If they'd done this a year ago, they'd have lost us all as subscribers. Now that we have a (lite) version in NZ, they hope to that - pissed off though we are - we'll keep subscribing. Sorry, NF - the NZ offering is not worth it.

Lets say the 20,000-30,000 unblockers in NZ cut Netflix completely. Thats cUSD3.6m per annum. Of annual revenues of greater than USD6.6bn. Tiny. Do you really think they'll care? Globally, who knows. But if it drives a greater degree of piracy then its not Netflix's problem. In fact its the content producers problem who may then be more likely to do global deals.

Thought I might do the global math. If 30k represents the NZ households that use unblockers then thats about 2%. There are about 140m households (pre 2016 expansion) that have roughly the same library as NZ. c2.8m households using unblockers on a 2% penetration. It'd take c5% off Netflix's revenue if they all unsubscribed due to this "effort".
If Netflix are doing this to get access to China with its 179m households........ wouldn't it be worth it?

It's more people then New Zealand households. If they succeed in blocking possible that they'll lose millions. It disadvantages every region with limited content, which I guess is most of the world.

If they succeed in blocking I'll only subscribe when on holidays, after all only monthly contract, and that's only if haven't found something better.

It's not pre 2016 expansion any more so if someone doesn't join that still counts as lost customer, therefore could be a lot more then 140 million households.

Cool. We'll walk through it and relax any assumptions so you can tell me how much current revenue Netflix has at risk from doing this.

There are estimated 20-30,000 unblockers in NZ. Of 1.6m households. Assumption: Max 1 unblocker per household. 30k/1.6m = 1.875% of HH's in NZ are using an unblocker to access US content.

Netflix estimate there are 790m households globally for them to address. 179m households in China (not accessing), 189m households that got switched on in early Jan 2016 (not accessing). Exclud the 101m households in US that already have access to their full range of content. As per lemontv's cataloguing Canada, Latin America, UK, Ireland has good access to content. I've assumed Netherlands and Nordics have good access to content but could relax that assumption. That leaves: France, Germany, Switzerland, Belgium, Australia, NZ, Japan, Spain, Portugal and Italy with similar content libraries (or about 140m households).

Assuming unblocker usage in those 140m HH countries is similar to NZ thats 1.875% of 140m HH at risk = 2.625m HH.
Each paying roughly USD10/mth or 2.625mxUSD10x12 = USD315m revenue at risk. FY15 Revenue for Netflix will be USD6.6bn (or more). So 5% revenue at risk from undertaking this blocking attempt.

I'm not sure I'd agree with on including countries that have just joined - market opportunity doesnt equal revenue lost.

Come back at me with your assumptions and quantify what you think the risk to Netflix is.

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Hammerer

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#1472818 16-Jan-2016 20:08

I thought that US subscribers don't have access to the full range of content. I know Netflix users in the US who also access the catalogues in other countries such as the UK and Canada.

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