2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2832566 14-Dec-2021 22:22

Norway bans alcohol

Norway introduces new COVID restrictions, bans serving alcohol in bid to curb Omicron outbreak
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-12-14/norway-bans-serving-alcohol-covid-omicron/100697718

""
Norway will ban the serving of alcohol in bars and restaurants, impose stricter rules in schools and speed up vaccinations as part of new efforts to limit an expected surge of the Omicron variant of the coronavirus.
""

Slim Dusty - A Pub With No Beer
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFpGQoOBrLY

Sup

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Ultimate Geek
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#2832686 15-Dec-2021 09:01

quickymart:

Related to the doctors being suspended for spreading misinformation: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-three-doctors-suspended-from-practising-amid-misinformation-probe/VN3KTYIAJ7BTQR6QOQQ3Y4NYJU/

At least someone is doing something about these people who profess to be doctors.

There is hope! Well done medical council, only twenty to go.

Just keep swimming...

Batman

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#2832692 15-Dec-2021 09:14

we find out on Christmas week whether fresh double Pfizer really works v Delta ... hoping for the best

bon voyage Auckland, you've more than earnt it!

Batman

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#2832695 15-Dec-2021 09:18

meanwhile in Queensland ... https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/127285020/covid19-all-passengers-on-two-australian-flights-ordered-to-quarantine-for-christmas

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#2832701 15-Dec-2021 09:24

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/omicron-wave-covid-19-vaccine-pfizer-protection-hospitalisation-2378801

JOHANNESBURG: Two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine appear to have given 70 per cent protection against hospitalisation in South Africa in recent weeks, a major real-world study on the potential impact of Omicron showed on Tuesday (Dec 14), as the country battles a spike in infections linked to the new variant.

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#2832702 15-Dec-2021 09:28

NSW removes a few restrictions for everyone inc unvaccinated, for Christmas, inc dropping masks

https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/australia/all-of-the-coronavirus-rules-that-change-on-december-15-in-nsw/news-story/e1751ad081e4a2e6b12e660e62479c62

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Oblivian

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#2832712 15-Dec-2021 09:37

David Farrier is back at the keyboard. This one is a good read.

Honeypot for AVers. A few change their tune. But the usual ones end in insults and abuse or refuse to beleive

https://www.webworm.co/p/information

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#2832733 15-Dec-2021 10:22

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-south-africa-releases-latest-new-data-on-omicron-pfizer-effectiveness-reduces/6FJGRTHYKEMJ34NUPIZWUOWNEQ/

Scott3

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#2832750 15-Dec-2021 10:55

Batman:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-omicron-outbreak-south-africa-releases-latest-new-data-on-omicron-pfizer-effectiveness-reduces/6FJGRTHYKEMJ34NUPIZWUOWNEQ/

Effectiveness of Pfizer has dropped under Omicron. Graph / Discovery Health Insights

Ouch ...

"The Pfizer vaccine is only 33 per cent effective in adults over 18 at reducing Omicron-related infection, and dropped to 70 per cent effective in reducing Omicron-related hospital admissions."

The 25% effectiveness at stopping transmission 3-4 months after second does is kinda worrying too. Means that somebody at 5 months (like me) would see even lower effectiveness.

On the more positive side, a "likely low severity of the variant" is noted.

Scott3

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#2832764 15-Dec-2021 11:20

Scott3:

NSW reported 804 new cases today. A worrying trajectory:

They are highly vaccinated (93.2% of 16+ with second dose).

NSW numbers are out.

1,360 in the 24 hrs to 8pm 14th Dec.

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-nsw.aspx

Continuing the worrying trajectory. But still no substantial uptick in those in hospital (currently 166).

Will be pritty scary to see what happens to case numbers over the next couple of weeks. Restrictions eased today, and the festive season in full swing.

Given NSW's high vaccination rate 94.8% of 16+ with first dose, it is possible a let it rip approach may not overload the hospitals. But if it does, the rapid growth rate, combined with the lag between infection, detection & hospitalization means the hospital system could be in a lot of pain.

Has aussie got those oral antiviral's yet? could be a game changer.

[edit]

New Graph:

Note the log scale - growth rate currently is epic, but a risk remains that the last two days data are outliers.

Sup

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#2832767 15-Dec-2021 11:25

Scott3:

NSW reported 804 new cases today. A worrying trajectory:

They are highly vaccinated (93.2% of 16+ with second dose).

I still think it is concerning. NSW didn't break through the 400 case mark in this latest surge until the 8th December, I think this could well be too recently to be showing up in the hospitalization data.

Worrying thing is if the current trajectory continued (Reff of 1.68), they will be above 5000 daily cases at new years, roughly two weeks away.

You could be right about the hospitalization & ICU thing, but if wrong, NSW would have massive issues.

I think most of this spike will be delta. NSW only had 10 cases of omicron in the 24 hours to 8pm 11 December - Likely it is still only making up a small chunk of the 800+ cases reported today.

Despite the surge, NSW is pushing ahead relaxing restrictions (i.e. dropping some mask mandates, making some contact tracing requirements optional, and allowing the un-vaccinated into settings like retail.) If i was running the show in NSW, I would be getting cold feet and hitting pause on that one.

Hard to disagree with any of that.

It is less than ideal to be confronting the arrival of Omicron amidst a spike in Delta cases. I would be interested to look at cases by age, with kids only recently being included in the roll out plan under the age of 12.

Compared to New Zealand, NSW is somewhat bullish in the way that they make reopening plans. Plenty of Kiwis I know, that live over there, are somewhat bemused by NZ's reticence to reopen.

Of course they are entirely overlooking the massive difference in hospital capacity per capita.

And now that there is a new variant, a conservative approach, a dialing back on freedoms, is happening already in other countries....suddenly New Zealand's slow two full cycle wind down shows a lot of foresight.

Just keep swimming...

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Sup

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Ultimate Geek
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#2832769 15-Dec-2021 11:29

Scott3:

Scott3:

NSW reported 804 new cases today. A worrying trajectory:

They are highly vaccinated (93.2% of 16+ with second dose).

NSW numbers are out.

1,360 in the 24 hrs to 8pm 14th Dec.

https://www.health.nsw.gov.au/Infectious/covid-19/Pages/stats-nsw.aspx

Continuing the worrying trajectory. But still no substantial uptick in those in hospital (currently 166).

Will be pritty scary to see what happens to case numbers over the next couple of weeks. Restrictions eased today, and the festive season in full swing.

Given NSW's high vaccination rate 94.8% of 16+ with first dose, it is possible a let it rip approach may not overload the hospitals. But if it does, the rapid growth rate, combined with the lag between infection, detection & hospitalization means the hospital system could be in a lot of pain.

Has aussie got those oral antiviral's yet? could be a game changer.

[edit]

New Graph:

Note the log scale - growth rate currently is epic, but a risk remains that the last two days data are outliers.

Wow. I am sitting here scratching my head. I do not understand this. Cases are rising at Omicron speeds but this is a Delta wave?

This exponential growth is nothing like the last Delta curve. What previously took weeks is happening day on day.

Just keep swimming...

Scott3

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#2832773 15-Dec-2021 11:37

Sup:

Wow. I am sitting here scratching my head. I do not understand this. Cases are rising at Omicron speeds but this is a Delta wave?

This exponential growth is nothing like the last Delta curve. What previously took weeks is happening day on day.

I might have been wide of the mark regarding Omicron. As you say, the surge doesn't seem to align with how we expect delta to behave in a highly vaccinated population.

My feeling was that the growth in case numbers was simply too fast to be reflective of omicron. As of yesterday, NSW had only sequenced 85 Omicron case's total, which supported my stance:

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-records-804-covid-19-cases-as-hospitality-venue-clusters-grow-20211214-p59hbu.html

But it seems that officials think it is an Omicron Surge:

"However, it is believed hundreds more cases of the variant will be detected, after genomic sequencing revealed some cases in large clusters linked to nightclubs and parties had Omicron.

“We are of the belief that Omicron transmission is accounting for our increased case numbers at present,” Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant said on Tuesday."

Perhaps Omicron is so fast that the genomic sequencing isn't keeping up...

Sup

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Ultimate Geek
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#2832779 15-Dec-2021 11:39

Batman:

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/world/omicron-wave-covid-19-vaccine-pfizer-protection-hospitalisation-2378801

JOHANNESBURG: Two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech's COVID-19 vaccine appear to have given 70 per cent protection against hospitalisation in South Africa in recent weeks, a major real-world study on the potential impact of Omicron showed on Tuesday (Dec 14), as the country battles a spike in infections linked to the new variant.

If this is accurate in a primarily vaccinated country like us, or say Australia....where there is less natural immunity.....thirty percent of infections needing hospital care would mean a very big number.

Just keep swimming...

cruxis

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#2832783 15-Dec-2021 11:46

As you know high schools have now ended for the year. So at the usual end of year staff drinks the vaccine mandate for teachers was warmly discussed. The main complaint was not the mandate itself which nearly all teachers are fine with.

It was the hypocrisy, if the mandate was is all about safety, The why are unvaccinated high school students allowed to attend school? Some disscused taking action next year and some might refuse to teach unvaccinated students for work safety reasons, as many teachers are of the older vulnerable age group. It was interesting discussion and might be something the crops up next year for the goverment to sort out. If it is all about health and safety then high school students need to be vaccinated, or they will be exposing teachers to higher risk and a possible union action.

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