2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Ultimate Geek
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#2441969 20-Mar-2020 10:58

Rikkitic:

I have only non-expert lay person understanding of this virus and how it transmits, so don't jump on me if this is stupid, but a question has occurred to me. Could there be a genetic component to this, as in some groups of people are more susceptible than others? This might explain why Italy has such a high infection rate, and also why Australia (which has a large Italian immigrant population) seems to have a higher rate than we do. I am not speculating about this, just asking. Can anyone explain?

Some statistical analysis coming out of China now suggests bloodtype may have some effect on it. Type-A being slightly more susceptible and Type-O slightly less so. There has been no explanation why this might be the case and people are surprised by the correlation as this virus mostly attacks the lungs and is not blood-borne. It is only a weak correlation but is above the expected random fluctuations in the sample.

frankv

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#2441974 20-Mar-2020 11:03

Hibino:

There are people saying the virus gets weaker and weaker by passing through people, I hope it is true and the one in NZ is a minor version.

Except that, like flu, people will have an immunity to one strain (the weak one perhaps) and then someone will bring a less-mutated, stronger strain from e.g. Wuhan and we'll start all over again.

sidefx

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#2441976 20-Mar-2020 11:07

Scott3:

Also say we 5% of cases need 2 weeks of ICU care, and we free up 100 ICU beds for covid-19, in order to expose 60% of our population, we will need to "spread the curve" over 1440 weeks, or 28 years, in order to avoid overloading our ICU capacity.

Slightly scary if you read this o.O

https://www.health.govt.nz/system/files/documents/publications/intensivecare.pdf

"In New Zealand as at the 2000/01 year, there were approximately 6.0 available
intensive care beds,3
including 4.4 ventilated beds, per 100,000 people. This
compared to 8.7 available beds and 6.2 ventilated beds per 100,000 people in
Australia (Anderson and Hart 2002). Other international data indicates that many
European countries have around 9 or 10 intensive care beds per 100,000 people,
while France, Germany and the US have over 20 beds per 100,000 people (Angus
et al 1997). However, differences in definitions make comparisons between
countries difficult. "

OK, that was from 15 years ago... wonder what the ventilated ratios are like now? And what about not just ICU but wider availability of "ventilated beds"?

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vexxxboy

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#2441977 20-Mar-2020 11:08

OldSkin:

There has been some indication blood type might be a factor, type "O" having lower risk, but not peer reviewed yet.

Italy had events like Milan fashion show , Carnival season attracting tourists before the end of summer.

Perhaps it was peak tourist season, so lots of opportunity for the virus.

A big design industry that had lots of factory contacts with China.

Italy also had has long running economic problems , perhaps some political ones that made for a late and slow response.

There was a lot of noise about this begin the flu etc.

Economic problems probably resulted in healthcare system not having excess resource to compound things.

Unfortunately here we have had many years of cost accountants running successive rulers over our wasteful Healthcare system.

Moldy hospitals , and Southlanders who could not get cancer tests let alone treatment.

I don't expect there was 'that' much put aside ( wasted capital ) for extra capacity and strategic reserve on our side.

We can only hope.

Kia Kaha

Northern Italy also has the custom of when people meet they are kissed twice on the cheeks, Southern Italy dont tend to do it.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Geektastic

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#2441983 20-Mar-2020 11:20

From the UK

"Police will have the power to detain and quarantine people for up to six weeks under new emergency laws designed to stop the spread of coronavirus.

People will be committing a crime and will face fines of up to £1,000 if they fail to comply, attempt to abscond, provide misleading information or obstruct health workers and police.

Immigration officers will be given more limited powers to detain people of all nationalities, including Britons, and direct them to screening and quarantine. The Government acknowledged that the powers were “likely to result in some controversy”.

I wonder if we will see anything like that here.

frankv

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#2441984 20-Mar-2020 11:21

Scott3:

Possibly we could re-open tourism with countries that have also stamped it out.

How do you identify a country that has stamped it out?

Consider (e.g.) Italy. In a few months many people will have contracted the disease, and will subsequently be immune. But the disease will likely still be present in the community, but largely invisible... most people who have it will have mild symptoms and will recover without hospitalisation or testing. And, if they open their borders to us, probably they will open their borders to other countries too, and bring in new sources and new strains.

How long after the last positive test do you wait before you declare that country to be "clean"?

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SJB

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#2441985 20-Mar-2020 11:31

Here's an interesting BBC article about how Singapore is dealing with it.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-51866102

GV27

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#2441986 20-Mar-2020 11:31

Air NZ stock down to 85c per share.

Geektastic

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#2441990 20-Mar-2020 11:38

GV27:

Air NZ stock down to 85c per share.

There'll be people getting their wallets out for that.

frankv

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#2441994 20-Mar-2020 11:41

Gurezaemon:

This explains it well (Telegraph)

I'd add something I read elsewhere, but no longer have the link.

Generally speaking, death rates skyrocket when hospitals (especially ICUs) are overwhelmed. Whilst the hospitals in Hubei province and Wuhan in particular were overwhelmed, the rest of China was not. In fact, China could send 20,000 doctors to Hubei to assist. So there are really two different "China" experiences: Hubei, where there was a high death rate (about 5%), and the rest of China, where there was a very low death rate (e.g. Beijing = 8/480= 1.6%). Lumping them together, "all of China" is much better than Italy. Italy (or perhaps Northern Italy) should really be compared to Hubei, not the whole of China.

elpenguino

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#2442002 20-Mar-2020 11:45

Geektastic:

From the UK

"Police will have the power to detain and quarantine people for up to six weeks under new emergency laws designed to stop the spread of coronavirus.

Under normal circumstances this kind of threat from a state might work.

Where is the state going to put 100,000 people at a moment's notice, feed them and so on?

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

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#2442047 20-Mar-2020 11:58

Israelis are working on something

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2020/02/coronavirus-scientists-stumble-on-potential-vaccine-by-pure-luck.html

Stu

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#2442048 20-Mar-2020 12:01

Dated 28/2, and I'm sure it's been posted here previously.

People often mistake me for an adult because of my age.

Keep calm, and carry on posting.

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frankv

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#2442049 20-Mar-2020 12:01

OldSkin:

Unfortunately here we have had many years of cost accountants running successive rulers over our wasteful Healthcare system.

Moldy hospitals , and Southlanders who could not get cancer tests let alone treatment.

I don't expect there was 'that' much put aside ( wasted capital ) for extra capacity and strategic reserve on our side.

I wholeheartedly agree. It's basic Operations Research.

To be most cost-efficient, a hospital (or GP practice or factory or whatever) needs to be sized to NEVER be out of work... i.e. it is sized to meet the average demand, with some queueing to shift the peak load to low demand times. The Health system has been pared away over the decades until it is ruthlessly cost-efficient. Further cost-cutting attempts (e.g. Mental Health) are mostly failures, with reduction of services. This efficiency means that small unexpected peaks result in longer queues, which may then lead to a grudging release of resources (and political chest-thumping about "increasing Health spending"). Large unexpected demand results in people not getting treated at all. And people dying.

Fred99

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#2442052 20-Mar-2020 12:04

elpenguino:

Geektastic:

From the UK

"Police will have the power to detain and quarantine people for up to six weeks under new emergency laws designed to stop the spread of coronavirus.

Under normal circumstances this kind of threat from a state might work.

Where is the state going to put 100,000 people at a moment's notice, feed them and so on?

Australia has precedent, and there's plenty of cruise ships sitting idle to help get them there.

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