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gmball
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  #2687478 6-Apr-2021 19:52
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I don't think anyone wants another lockdown, especially the businesses at the brink of collapse who's viability potentially relies on tourists returning.

 

What I hope is that as a country we get our act together, we are often so far behind the rest of the world in preventative measures, that any outbreak seems to come as a surprise. We seem to have achieved our freedoms based on luck vs good management, and being a country at the bottom of the world, with a small population and surrounded by water has certainly helped.

 

Even the vaccine rollout, I see we are third from the bottom of a very long list. I think only the Ukraine and Guatemala are worse than us as a % of population vaccinated.

 

As a frequent traveller pre covid, many overseas airports I passed thru months before covid first arrived in NZ, were already well into mask wearing, and temperature checks for all arriving passengers. I don't even know that we are doing temperature checks now for arriving passengers. As a nation we had never experienced the likes of SARS like Asia had experienced, and it definitely took us a long time to wake up to what was happening in the rest of the world. You'd think the fact that we had months to prepare before covid arrived here, that we could have prevented the initial outbreak, much like Taiwan managed to achieve with a much larger population, and significant travel between Taiwan and mainland China. 

 

I was in Shanghai in December 2019, and all arriving passengers required a temperature check, and a completed health form. There were also additional temperature checks at hotels and they reported these to authorities. Yet on arrival back in NZ it was basically a free for all, no additional forms, no temperature checks, zilch. Just walk on thru.




sbiddle
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  #2687480 6-Apr-2021 19:53
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gmball:

 

I suspect some travel insurance companies will want to get onboard with covering these contingencies, albeit at inflated insurance premiums. After all, theres a good chance they wont have to pay out if the bubble works successfully. 

 

I've noticed like most things, one way AKL - SYD $598 on Air NZ, I think these prices are going to become more normal as there isn't the competition on the Tasman like there was previously. I think we can kiss goodbye to $99 one way Grab A Seat fares for a few years.

 

 

Well with the 25% - 30% tax increases that have occurred on TT flights and tax for a return trip now sitting around NZ$250 - $265 (depending on destination) there is absolutely zero chance of ever seeing $99 fares ever again.

 

I guess the thing with travel insurance depends on what you're looking for Cover for. If you catch Covid you're going to be covered (most people are covered for medical care in Australia anyway), but if your travel is delayed due to a Govt lock down you're not going to necessarily be able to claim additional expenses for things such as accommodation.

 

It does however raise the fact that there will no doubt be policies that cover things that could well be available from a broker. I always had an annual worldwide policy that cost me about $500ish per year. I had a friend who used to travel to the US, Asia and Europe monthly (around 12 big trips per year with lots of other travel) who paid about $2000 per year for a policy that didn't offer anything above and beyond mine except for one specific clause - basically if your flight was cancelled or delayed you could book any option available (I'm sure there were some exceptions!) to get there. I think he only used it once, but it's something that was there if the need arose.

 

 

 

 

 

 


gmball
568 posts

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  #2687490 6-Apr-2021 20:01
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sbiddle:

 

It does however raise the fact that there will no doubt be policies that cover things that could well be available from a broker. I always had an annual worldwide policy that cost me about $500ish per year. I had a friend who used to travel to the US, Asia and Europe monthly (around 12 big trips per year with lots of other travel) who paid about $2000 per year for a policy that didn't offer anything above and beyond mine except for one specific clause - basically if your flight was cancelled or delayed you could book any option available (I'm sure there were some exceptions!) to get there. I think he only used it once, but it's something that was there if the need arose.

 

 

 

 

Could be a good business opportunity for a travel insurance company wanting to provide peace of mind, considering that any suspension of the bubble will most likely be on a state by state basis, Would seem a no brainer to me to offer a comprehensive policy which covers lockdown and accomodation costs (to a limit). Im fairly sure even with a hike in premiums, it would be an attractive proposition for travellers prepared to pay for peace of mind.




sbiddle
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  #2687536 6-Apr-2021 20:08
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gmball:

 

I agree. We cant keep borders closed forever. To be honest I think its well overdue, especially to countries which generally have a better hold on Covid than us. Places like our Pacific Island neighbours, Raro etc, don't have covid, or haven't ever had a community outbreak. I'm also thinking places like Taiwan, Singapore, all have Covid well under control and are far more advanced with their containment of any outbreak / plus significantly further along the path of vaccination.

 

 

The reasons for not having bubbles with Pacific Island nations aren't because they don't have Covid, it's because of the implications if travel did introduce a case there. That's why a bubble with Rarotonga is still a little way off yet.

 

 


nztim
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  #2687547 6-Apr-2021 20:40
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I think wife and I will wait for the Jab - hopefully then we can go to the Gold Coast later this year (in our winter)





Any views expressed on these forums are my own and don't necessarily reflect those of my employer. 


WyleECoyoteNZ
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  #2687556 6-Apr-2021 20:57
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I can see a NZ wide lock down coming.

 

Kiwi's themselves aren't always Covid-19 scanning when going about there business and now by asking nicely we expect Australian tourists to do the same?

 

We've seen in the past people not displaying symptoms until day 13 or later, so in theory a NZer could be in Sydney for the weekend, and then bring it back unknown to them, and then spread it, or an Australian could come in for the weekend and do the same.

 

Also, with travel being able to be from 19 April, that is the beginning of the NZ school holidays.

 

I get NZ businesses are hurting, but until a vaccine has been rolled out en masse, is this bubble a good idea?


gmball
568 posts

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  #2687557 6-Apr-2021 21:01
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WyleECoyoteNZ:

 

I can see a NZ wide lock down coming.

 

Kiwi's themselves aren't always Covid-19 scanning when going about there business and now by asking nicely we expect Australian tourists to do the same?

 

We've seen in the past people not displaying symptoms until day 13 or later, so in theory a NZer could be in Sydney for the weekend, and then bring it back unknown to them, and then spread it, or an Australian could come in for the weekend and do the same.

 

Also, with travel being able to be from 19 April, that is the beginning of the NZ school holidays.

 

I get NZ businesses are hurting, but until a vaccine has been rolled out en masse, is this bubble a good idea?

 

 

 

 

The covid scanning app was another stupid idea. If we had followed suit with other countries far more experienced than us, we would have introduced the covid card. Basically just carry it and it does the work for us without any need to scan. We could have then just issued one to every arriving person, and perhaps collect them on departure for re-allocation?


 
 
 
 

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Geektastic
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  #2687559 6-Apr-2021 21:03
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gmball:
Geektastic: I don’t think we should have done any quarantine free travel until vaccination is complete, personally.

It would not have added that long to the wait considering the risk.


Vaccination won’t ever be complete. A large chunk of our population will refuse a vaccine. If we waited even for the majority to be vaccinated, we might as well add another year at least for that to be achieved.

I don’t see why there’s hesitancy when currently neither country has it in the community. We just need to be prepared to be flexible if it ends up back in the community.


Why would it take a year to vaccinate the majority? NZ has a pretty small population.





gmball
568 posts

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  #2687562 6-Apr-2021 21:07
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Why would it take a year to vaccinate the majority? NZ has a pretty small population.

 

 

 

First vaccine was administered 20th Feb, its now April and from all accounts less than 40,000 people have received it. Multiple reports of vaccine centres in Auckland running out of vaccine for booked appointments. We dont seem to be off to a very convincing start?

 

I'm not saying we cant ramp it up, but if we extrapolate that out, based on current speed of vaccination, we should have around 325,000 vaccinated in 12 months. Suggests we need to rapidly expand the vaccine program and at least ensure that vaccines are available for booked appointments.


  #2687570 6-Apr-2021 21:39
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DjShadow:

 

I'm assuming Air NZ won't need to pull any 777s out of storage for this?

 

 

From the looks of it they're using the 320/321s and 787s to MEL for example. Will be more than enough for TT as they don't need a big fleet for TT compared to long haul. Consider that they can operate ~4 flights each day for each aircraft if they schedule their flights for efficient usage of aircraft (e.g. AKL-SYD-AKL-SYD-AKL). Therefore don't actually need that many aircraft to operate several flights a day over the Tasman.

 

Probably will need the 777a back into the mix only when they start back into the likes of SIN, HKG, LAX, SFO, etc.

 

There is also Qantas/Jetstar with their 330/737/320s so plenty of capacity across the Tasman overall.


sbiddle
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  #2687578 6-Apr-2021 21:49
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Geektastic:

Why would it take a year to vaccinate the majority? NZ has a pretty small population.

 

Our vaccine rollout is a 12 month program. Even the PM has said that numerous times.

 

Initial vaccines in Feb 2021, with everybody who wants to be vaccinated being able to get at least their 1st dose by the end of the year, and then mopping up the remaining 2nd doses and vaccine hesitant people into early 2022.

 

What is concerning is that we're supposed to have vaccinated 2 million people by the end of June according to the MoH but are going pretty slowly so far with only around 66,000 vaccinations given as of late last week.

 

If you look at official MoH data they say 300,000 vaccinated before the end of April and 1.7 million people vaccinated from May to end of June. Now if you're to assume that not all those 2 million will get their 2nd dose before the end of June (influenza vaccines starting next week clash with most high risk people and you can't have this within 14 days) we could take some guesses at around 3 million vaccinations in total across May and June. That's going to mean somehow ramping up to 50,000 vaccinations every single day across those two months.

 

We're then planning on it taking from July to December to vaccinate the other 2 million people, remembering that currently nobody under 16 will receive the vaccine as it's not approved. 

 

 

 

 


Yabanize
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  #2687581 6-Apr-2021 21:51
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gmball:

 

The covid scanning app was another stupid idea. If we had followed suit with other countries far more experienced than us, we would have introduced the covid card. Basically just carry it and it does the work for us without any need to scan. We could have then just issued one to every arriving person, and perhaps collect them on departure for re-allocation?

 

 

The logistics of R&D and manufacturing a dedicated single purpose device for a few million people? When most of us already own a smartphone? (BTW there's bluetooth tracing now using the framework from Google and Apple, though I wish that bit didn't take so long)

 

Though it wouldn't be a bad idea if it filled the gap of people who don't have smartphones, and those who had smartphones could just use them (with bluetooth tracing)


gmball
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  #2687604 6-Apr-2021 22:34
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The logistics of R&D and manufacturing a dedicated single purpose device for a few million people? When most of us already own a smartphone? (BTW there's bluetooth tracing now using the framework from Google and Apple, though I wish that bit didn't take so long)

 

Though it wouldn't be a bad idea if it filled the gap of people who don't have smartphones, and those who had smartphones could just use them (with bluetooth tracing)

 

 

Yes but now we have an app which hardly anyone uses? I think the purpose of the Covid card was it took the responsibility away from needing to scan. Simply just needed to carry the card. I guess for some, carrying the card would have been too difficult too.

 

In my regular supermarket visit, I'd say maybe 1 in 10 are scanning? Gym, no one scans. Food outlets, very rarely see anyone scan.

 

Unless government make it a requirement to scan, I can't see behaviours changing. I guess the question being how would they enforce it?


debo
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  #2687613 6-Apr-2021 23:26
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gmball:

 



The logistics of R&D and manufacturing a dedicated single purpose device for a few million people? When most of us already own a smartphone? (BTW there's bluetooth tracing now using the framework from Google and Apple, though I wish that bit didn't take so long)


Though it wouldn't be a bad idea if it filled the gap of people who don't have smartphones, and those who had smartphones could just use them (with bluetooth tracing)



Yes but now we have an app which hardly anyone uses? I think the purpose of the Covid card was it took the responsibility away from needing to scan. Simply just needed to carry the card. I guess for some, carrying the card would have been too difficult too.


In my regular supermarket visit, I'd say maybe 1 in 10 are scanning? Gym, no one scans. Food outlets, very rarely see anyone scan.


Unless government make it a requirement to scan, I can't see behaviours changing. I guess the question being how would they enforce it?



No need to design anything. It is already baked into Google maps. Just go in and enable Timeline. It will use GPS, WiFi etc to record the places you go. No need to scan any thing.

djtOtago
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  #2687614 6-Apr-2021 23:36
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But Google timeline will NOT send you an alert if you have visited a place of interest. Which is one of the main points of the COVID tracing app.


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