Our new coalition government.

To post in this sub-forum you must have made 100 posts or have Trust status or have completed our ID Verification

Forums › Politics › Our new coalition government.

1 | ... | 128 | 129 | 130 | 131 | 132 | 133 | 134 | 135 | 136 | 137 | 138 | ... | 182

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2333454 9-Oct-2019 16:59

tdgeek:

MikeB4:

The economy is the least worrying thing that I worry about these days. The world seems to be in a giant crap fest.

Agree, Trump and Climate Change dwarf any economic inconvenience that may be coming

I actually don't agree.

A catastrophic global economic event like the great depression would be extremely bad for humanity and the planet, probably worsening climate change and our ability to deal with it. Wealthy nations have the ability (but not the will) to do something about it, anti-globalism and nationalism work against cooperation at all levels, as we've seen by the environmental sabotage by the USA under Trump coinciding with his version of hyper-nationalism which has nearly half of Americans believing that it's all a hoax, 5% of the world population doing 25% of the damage.

Fix the corrupt politics, and mankind can come up with solutions.

tdgeek

29740 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2333528 9-Oct-2019 19:37

Fred99:

What were they?

4 consecutive years of government surplus prior to the GFC, the books were in pretty good shape.
Banking system held together in the main, the disaster with banks overseas mainly confined to / caused by dodgy loans in the second-tier finance market.
An FTA with China which became our largest trading partner, and created a boom in another major trading partner - Aus - the other "rock star economy".
High export dairy prices.
Relatively high interest rates to keep inflation in check at the onset, which were able to be dropped from 8.25% in 2008 to 2.5% in 2009, providing massive stimulus. Much of that went into housing, thus not impacting on official inflation figures (but increasing living costs for many NZers).
Large increase in immigration, boosting GDP (but not necessarily GDP per capita) and increasing demand force inflation on housing.

The books are still okay, banks - I'm not sure, we've still got an FTA with China but the global trade situation is a bit glum and intertwined with geopolitics, dairy prices and other export prices holding up - but we've got a low dollar, with the OCR at 1% there's not much room to provide true stimulus any more, drop the rates further and that'll encourage people to exit cash deposits and risk investing in property and shares which might or might not be a bubble. Immigration has stayed high, increasing it further just puts more pressure on already stressed infrastructure (health, education, roading, electricity etc) as well as further inflationary pressure on housing.

Not saying disaster is going to happen, but if it does then the tank's relatively empty and the foot's already quite hard on the gas pedal.

If I was running the show, I'd be sitting on that surplus for a few months before deciding what to do with it. But if they do that, they'll be accused of (and probably be guilty of) using it for election year bribes - both parties, tax cuts or handouts.

If there was a GFC, the plan is to give money to the populous. It cant be tax cuts as they are permanent. AUS gave IIRC A$900 to everyone, that boosts the economy. Spend in infrastructure, thats also boosts. If we have to, borrow.

Id also be sitting on it, but the 3.9 isnt a lot, but its an excuse to bring forward infrastructure spending

tdgeek

29740 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2333529 9-Oct-2019 19:46

Fred99:

tdgeek:

MikeB4:

The economy is the least worrying thing that I worry about these days. The world seems to be in a giant crap fest.

Agree, Trump and Climate Change dwarf any economic inconvenience that may be coming

I actually don't agree.

A catastrophic global economic event like the great depression would be extremely bad for humanity and the planet, probably worsening climate change and our ability to deal with it. Wealthy nations have the ability (but not the will) to do something about it, anti-globalism and nationalism work against cooperation at all levels, as we've seen by the environmental sabotage by the USA under Trump coinciding with his version of hyper-nationalism which has nearly half of Americans believing that it's all a hoax, 5% of the world population doing 25% of the damage.

Fix the corrupt politics, and mankind can come up with solutions.

I dont know. The last GFC didn't adversely affect me. This time round it may be more of a genera; recession globally than bad practices being stung. I dint see a great depression, I see USA vs China. Tariffs there were actually a transfer of wealth for US citizens to the US Govt. While a big issue isnt obviously desirable, what we export they still want. Well, most of it. The US under his rule is a joke. Asia, Europe is a big population. Ideally we will deal with them more and US less. Whue the US is the No.1 economic superpower how long will that last? I dont see a great depression I see a move away from the US. Thats nit a bad thing, but then we gert close to China, from one superpower to another

GV27

5896 posts

Uber Geek

#2334809 10-Oct-2019 11:08

For anyone here interested in what is actually going on with the Light Rail proposal and why it's stuffed:

https://www.greaterauckland.org.nz/2019/10/10/the-super-fund-light-rail-scam/

tdgeek

29740 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2334860 10-Oct-2019 11:19

Clickbait, when I read Why any government would even consider signing up to a deal like this, especially they’ve just reported a huge surplus, they’re below their debt targets and bond rates are down around 1% is beyond me.

This deal is being decided, it wasn't thought of last night, and the apparently large surplus (its not actually that large at all) was reported just the other day.

What that article does show is that its a tricky build. Cost too much do charge fares that will send people to their cars? Like the buses everywhere else in NZ

GV27

5896 posts

Uber Geek

#2334879 10-Oct-2019 11:39

tdgeek:

Clickbait, when I read Why any government would even consider signing up to a deal like this, especially they’ve just reported a huge surplus, they’re below their debt targets and bond rates are down around 1% is beyond me.

They can clearly afford to fund the whole thing, why lock in high, inflation-adjusted returns on a per-passenger km basis in a PPP when they could....just build it and own it outright?

tdgeek

29740 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2334884 10-Oct-2019 11:43

GV27:

tdgeek:

Clickbait, when I read Why any government would even consider signing up to a deal like this, especially they’ve just reported a huge surplus, they’re below their debt targets and bond rates are down around 1% is beyond me.

They can clearly afford to fund the whole thing, why lock in high, inflation-adjusted returns on a per-passenger km basis in a PPP when they could....just build it and own it outright?

thats what I was thinking. How much is the capital cost? That will mean if we buy and build our own, it needs to be done in a linear fashion? Assuming we get big surpluses every year? Who pays for the losses? Taxpayers or AC or ratepayers?

Equinox IT

Cloud spending continues to surge globally, but most organisations haven’t made the changes necessary to maximise the value and cost-efficiency benefits of their cloud investments. Download the whitepaper From Overspend to Advantage now.

tdgeek

29740 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2334894 10-Oct-2019 11:46

I wouldnt be averse to mass borrowing, its cheap for countries, and its cheap anyway, but it dos need to pay. They need to use tax to push cars out. Help environment help congestion help LR pay

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2335014 10-Oct-2019 13:37

tdgeek:

I wouldnt be averse to mass borrowing, its cheap for countries.

It's only cheap for the term of the loan, but not when it needs to be rolled over at higher interest rate.

NZ already got in that trap with financing the "think big" projects - we almost ended up like Mexico.

MikeB4

18435 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Trusted

#2335361 11-Oct-2019 08:51

We are already handing future generations a horror show we do not need to add debt to the mix.

tdgeek

29740 posts

Uber Geek

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2335368 11-Oct-2019 09:06

MikeB4:

We are already handing future generations a horror show we do not need to add debt to the mix.

Ok. We did that post GFC and EQ. Likely to do that post upcoming GFC, or do we just let the economy tank, by watching activity slow, which will feed on itself. Debt and repayment of debt which we are doing right now is part of economic management.

MikeB4

18435 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Trusted

#2335378 11-Oct-2019 09:23

tdgeek:
MikeB4:

We are already handing future generations a horror show we do not need to add debt to the mix.

Ok. We did that post GFC and EQ. Likely to do that post upcoming GFC, or do we just let the economy tank, by watching activity slow, which will feed on itself. Debt and repayment of debt which we are doing right now is part of economic management.

I am referring to the borrow and hope ideals of the Muldoon era. We do not need to return to that disaster to fund projects now unless those projects have proven outcome of helping the planet and safe guarding future generations from the turmoil of climate change.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2335402 11-Oct-2019 10:06

tdgeek:

MikeB4:

We are already handing future generations a horror show we do not need to add debt to the mix.

Ok. We did that post GFC and EQ.

Not the Chch quake. That brought in about $30 billion in cash from overseas, and increased GDP growth. GST and income tax on the increased activity offset contribution from the government. The past government disingenuously added the amount depleted from the EQC disaster recovery fund as well as reinsurance received and paid out by EQC to the total "paid out by the government" and came out with a stupid high figure. The disaster recovery fund is not part of government reserves, and should never have been included as government contribution

Natural disaster is paradoxically a net plus to GDP - so long as you fix the damage. That most of the cost wasn't paid by the NZ taxpayer was icing on the cake. Brownlee was a conman, scapegoating people who were justifiably upset about the horrific shambles of EQC and Fletcher EQR by claiming that that people who were being let down were a burden on the "long suffering NZ taxpayer". And I see that myth has stuck around.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2335408 11-Oct-2019 10:20

MikeB4:

I am referring to the borrow and hope ideals of the Muldoon era. We do not need to return to that disaster to fund projects now unless those projects have proven outcome of helping the planet and safe guarding future generations from the turmoil of climate change.

I defend Muldoon for that, he was an beancounter by trade, following advice from the World Bank etc when big state projects weren't considered to be the mark of the communist devil. NZ was in deep economic doo-doo in the '70s, if Muldoon suddenly changed his spots from interventionist to economic liberal before Reaganomics, he'd have been condemned as a nutcase.

MikeB4

18435 posts

Uber Geek

ID Verified

Trusted

#2335416 11-Oct-2019 10:34

Fred99:

MikeB4:

I am referring to the borrow and hope ideals of the Muldoon era. We do not need to return to that disaster to fund projects now unless those projects have proven outcome of helping the planet and safe guarding future generations from the turmoil of climate change.

I defend Muldoon for that, he was an beancounter by trade, following advice from the World Bank etc when big state projects weren't considered to be the mark of the communist devil. NZ was in deep economic doo-doo in the '70s, if Muldoon suddenly changed his spots from interventionist to economic liberal before Reaganomics, he'd have been condemned as a nutcase.

He was a whiskey fueled nut case that came within a whisker of ruining this nation. The government had circa 30 days funding remaining and at risk of not being able to pay the public service payroll and defaulting on debt repayment. The country was on the brink of bankruptcy.

To make matters worse he drove a Rover 3500, unforgivable.

1 | ... | 128 | 129 | 130 | 131 | 132 | 133 | 134 | 135 | 136 | 137 | 138 | ... | 182