sonyxperiageek: Is everyone else's Kiwisavers still not going back up? Mine seems to have been sitting below the 0% gain line with increases/decreases since about two months ago now.
There has been large drops in US share prices. So if you are invested in a growth fund (mostly invested in shares). Then no surprises that it's value has dropped, or is not growing. If so, no point in switching funds now. As you would be turning an on paper loss into an actual loss.
As for recessions. NZ has typically had recessions in years that end with the number 8. So 2008, 1998, 1988, 1978, etc. Even though 2018 is almost over, I have still been seeing lots of signs of a slowdown.
As for recessions. NZ has typically had recessions in years that end with the number 8. So 2008, 1998, 1988, 1978, etc. Even though 2018 is almost over, I have still been seeing lots of signs of a slowdown.
That reminds me - God created economists to make astrologers look good.
Not sure if it's a reliable bellwether, but somewhat of a surprise I'd have thought anyway, in an environment of historically abnormal/low interest rates, global light vehicle (mainly car sales) have fallen in 2018, and forecast to continue contracting, according to Bloomberg.
Possibly more of a surprise in NZ, which AFAIK is enjoying record new vehicle sales, boosted no doubt by continued availability of cheap finance and a residential property market that is defying gravity.
For the tech sector, the world's first trillion dollar company (earlier this year) is now only worth US$770 billion.
While my gut feeling is that we're probably heading for trouble, it pays to note that if there'd been consensus that the conditions that led to the GFC were a threat, action would have been taken much earlier - and the worst of it could have been avoided.
I'm wary of "experts" qualified by past guesses - as they get cherry-picked and used as examples, the (majority) who didn't predict it get forgotten. Hence my comment above about economists being created by god to make astrologers look good.
I'm also skeptical of predictive claims based on history always repeating in cycles - to say "you can't lose on property or the share market long term". Depends what you mean by long term - ask any Japanese who bought property or shares in the early '90s how the last few decades has gone. Bubbles aren't universally recognised as such until after they burst.
While my gut feeling is that we're probably heading for trouble, it pays to note that if there'd been consensus that the conditions that led to the GFC were a threat, action would have been taken much earlier - and the worst of it could have been avoided.
I'm wary of "experts" qualified by past guesses - as they get cherry-picked and used as examples, the (majority) who didn't predict it get forgotten. Hence my comment above about economists being created by god to make astrologers look good.
I'm also skeptical of predictive claims based on history always repeating in cycles - to say "you can't lose on property or the share market long term". Depends what you mean by long term - ask any Japanese who bought property or shares in the early '90s how the last few decades has gone. Bubbles aren't universally recognised as such until after they burst.
Its opinions, not a lot else. the positive thing is that the effect here last time was low, and if there is another catchphrase, also sounds cool and trendy, "GFC" the same is likely as China will still be buying from us. The world markets were gutted by the subprime and subsequent banking management issues, so you would expect it wont be as bad, or a crisis (although that word will be everywhere in the media), but a solid correction. Some predict that low growth may become the norm for a while
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