"The only poll that really matters is the vote on election day".

networkn:

 

I predict that Shane Jones's "fund" will be subject to reports of mis-use and mis management in the coming few months.

 

 

 

I hope so, he is a loose cannon. I see Pronhub has reached new heights of sales....    :-)

wsnz:

 

tdgeek:

 

Fairness-wise, those who earn more should pay more as long as thats not excessive.

 

 

 

Is it fair? By what and who's definition?

 

What is the definition of "excessive"?

 

In terms of spending the collected tax dollars, what one person views as reasonable, another will not.

 

Then we have the issue of effectiveness of the programmes to which those dollars are deployed.

 

 

 

These are all very subjective, so it is unlikely there will ever be universal agreement, hence the argument will never be resolved.

 

There isn't an argument, a poster just mentioned that stat. The technical fairest method would be work out what the Govt needs and divide that by the number of taxpayers, all equal. Off course, that wouldn't work either. 

Fred99:

 

 

"The only poll that really matters is the vote on election day".

 

 

 

Interesting. You could say that Labour is doing swimmingly, but we all know that is not the case, missteps, a few controversys. You could say that National has been hurt by JLR. Im not sure on that apart from its leader.

What my gut feel is, is that they are doing stuff. Missteps aren't great, lets say its new for them, still not great, but getting there. But they are doing stuff. My biggest gripe with National was they didn't do stuff.  (Yes I know thats not technically correct, obviously, but you know what I mean) You would be hard pressed to run off a short list of key National policies, as their policy was to let the market sort it out. That not a bad idea at all, I am NOT in favour of mass regulation on everything, but you do need to draw a line, what do we need to manage, or keep an eye on. Being a small country we are vulnerable from offshore and from our small size.

It seems the public prefer action, with mistakes, than no action, with by default, no mistakes. Not until various house prices and sector underfunding come home to roost. 

But I am surprised by this poll. I would have expected that the coalition would poll relative,y comfortable in front, but nit this much. It's heading towards 60/40

Perhaps JA is being perceived as the steady as she goes, that JK had, and he deserved that 

Edit: Maybe also that a 3 party coalition is working, there are no fights, they all have had to step back on goals, which is what happens with multi party governing, it becomes more conservative. 

Honestly I'm surprised National are still where they are. I thought they'd be in the 30s and Bridges would have been knifed long ago. 

I can't really equate the Government's performance recently with a polling rise, so I guess I'm suspicious. By the same token, TD, we could assume that the public are happy enough with being told things are better by someone like an Arden or a Key than they are with things being objectively better, as measured by things like unemployment, houses delivered, or campaign promises fulfilled. 

Maybe we are just all idiots like that. Sometimes the simplest explanation is the best one after all. 

E: From Farrar (salt, grains, etc): 

I understand the poll wasn’t done last week but is mainly from January. It is curious they waited so long to release it, if that is the case.

January was of course when the PM had huge attention at Davos and issues such as the Kiwibuild meltdown had not really gone full frontal. Governments often get a bump in January as it is the quiet season and there is no Parliament.

So I’ll be more interested in the next poll.

https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2019/02/latest_poll-66.html

GV27:

 

Honestly I'm surprised National are still where they are. I thought they'd be in the 30s and Bridges would have been knifed long ago. 

 

I can't really equate the Government's performance recently with a polling rise, so I guess I'm suspicious. By the same token, TD, we could assume that the public are happy enough with being told things are better by someone like an Arden or a Key than they are with things being objectively better, as measured by things like unemployment, houses delivered, or campaign promises fulfilled. 

 

Maybe we are just all idiots like that. Sometimes the simplest explanation is the best one after all. 

 

E: From Farrar (salt, grains, etc): 

 

I understand the poll wasn’t done last week but is mainly from January. It is curious they waited so long to release it, if that is the case.

 

January was of course when the PM had huge attention at Davos and issues such as the Kiwibuild meltdown had not really gone full frontal. Governments often get a bump in January as it is the quiet season and there is no Parliament.

 

So I’ll be more interested in the next poll.

 

https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2019/02/latest_poll-66.html

 

I thought the poll was after Kiwibuild numbers? Ill recheck that later.

Arden and Key do have a good public perception. I guess the public has to weigh what's been happening. Kiwbuild down, but it was always heading that way? And in any case, IMO the horse already bolted with house prices, they are selling some down south as no interest. Too much house price. Unemployment has risen but its risen from the lowest number since I think 2009. Includes school leavers I recall too, thats tough with a high employment level. I recall that there were gains, but males/young (I assume school leavers) was up. I hear you, but a small increase of a low number borders on normal statistical variation ( I forget the term from QM)

Promises, its year in, this is so called deliver year, so I'll hold the cards for a bit

Personally, I give them steady so far, no more. The cake isnt baked yet, when its ready net election it will be burning, falling apart, or looking ok. 

Like I mentioned earlier, things are happening, which for better or for worse, is probably better than nothing happening.

Someone at interest.co.nz pointed out that the last six quarters were 4.7,4.5, 4.4, 4.4, 4.0, 4.3., suggesting the 4.0 is more of an outlier where as the 4.3 would indicate things being pretty much where they have been for a year. 3.

I think Labour (very smartly) bought themselves some time on some key issues like tax etc, but I can't help but feel they have gotten off lightly when it comes to the things they talked a big game about on the campaign (Kiwibuild, Public Transport, Industrial Relations). 

That won't work forever. Just like you can't live in a consent, you can't pay increasing household expenses with stardust. 

GV27:

 

Someone at interest.co.nz pointed out that the last six quarters were 4.7,4.5, 4.4, 4.4, 4.0, 4.3., suggesting the 4.0 is more of an outlier where as the 4.3 would indicate things being pretty much where they have been for a year. 3.

 

I think Labour (very smartly) bought themselves some time on some key issues like tax etc, but I can't help but feel they have gotten off lightly when it comes to the things they talked a big game about on the campaign (Kiwibuild, Public Transport, Industrial Relations). 

 

That won't work forever. Just like you can't live in a consent, you can't pay increasing household expenses with stardust. 

 

Thats good, unemployment is stable

Labour have failed with Kiwibuild, they admit that, at least partially. No demand as no buyers. As to any other policy they are just a year in. I'd like to turn it around, where would we be under National? National does not like policies, let the market sort it out. The Welly motorway and roads of significance emerged for the election, tax cuts that we cannot afford emerged before the election. Their campaign next time will be cleaning up Labours mess, but the mess is what National created over 9 years of underfunding and let the market sort it out. Thats my gripe, they sit back and watch, and some things fester.

Maybe they should cancel Kiwibuild, as it cannot work as prices are already too high. Or, at least its adding something to the market at the lower end, even thoiugh few can afford them

tdgeek:

 

GV27:

 

Someone at interest.co.nz pointed out that the last six quarters were 4.7,4.5, 4.4, 4.4, 4.0, 4.3., suggesting the 4.0 is more of an outlier where as the 4.3 would indicate things being pretty much where they have been for a year. 3.

 

I think Labour (very smartly) bought themselves some time on some key issues like tax etc, but I can't help but feel they have gotten off lightly when it comes to the things they talked a big game about on the campaign (Kiwibuild, Public Transport, Industrial Relations). 

 

That won't work forever. Just like you can't live in a consent, you can't pay increasing household expenses with stardust. 

 

 

Thats good, unemployment is stable

 

Labour have failed with Kiwibuild, they admit that, at least partially. No demand as no buyers. As to any other policy they are just a year in. I'd like to turn it around, where would we be under National? National does not like policies, let the market sort it out. The Welly motorway and roads of significance emerged for the election, tax cuts that we cannot afford emerged before the election. Their campaign next time will be cleaning up Labours mess, but the mess is what National created over 9 years of underfunding and let the market sort it out. Thats my gripe, they sit back and watch, and some things fester.

 

Maybe they should cancel Kiwibuild, as it cannot work as prices are already too high. Or, at least its adding something to the market at the lower end, even thoiugh few can afford them

 

Unemployment isnt stable. Quite a jump was reported this month.

Bluntj:

 

Unemployment isnt stable. Quite a jump was reported this month.

 

It's only a jump if you look at it and the most recent result before it. It's broadly in line with previous trends.

Having said that if Labour are going to claim credit for record low unemployment when it goes down then they should cop it when it goes up.

Bluntj:

 

tdgeek:

 

GV27:

 

Someone at interest.co.nz pointed out that the last six quarters were 4.7,4.5, 4.4, 4.4, 4.0, 4.3., suggesting the 4.0 is more of an outlier where as the 4.3 would indicate things being pretty much where they have been for a year. 3.

 

I think Labour (very smartly) bought themselves some time on some key issues like tax etc, but I can't help but feel they have gotten off lightly when it comes to the things they talked a big game about on the campaign (Kiwibuild, Public Transport, Industrial Relations). 

 

That won't work forever. Just like you can't live in a consent, you can't pay increasing household expenses with stardust. 

 

 

Thats good, unemployment is stable

 

Labour have failed with Kiwibuild, they admit that, at least partially. No demand as no buyers. As to any other policy they are just a year in. I'd like to turn it around, where would we be under National? National does not like policies, let the market sort it out. The Welly motorway and roads of significance emerged for the election, tax cuts that we cannot afford emerged before the election. Their campaign next time will be cleaning up Labours mess, but the mess is what National created over 9 years of underfunding and let the market sort it out. Thats my gripe, they sit back and watch, and some things fester.

 

Maybe they should cancel Kiwibuild, as it cannot work as prices are already too high. Or, at least its adding something to the market at the lower end, even thoiugh few can afford them

 

 

Unemployment isnt stable. Quite a jump was reported this month.

 

Someone at interest.co.nz pointed out that the last six quarters were 4.7,4.5, 4.4, 4.4, 4.0, 4.3., suggesting the 4.0 is more of an outlier where as the 4.3 would indicate things being pretty much where they have been for a year.

GV27:

 

Bluntj:

 

Unemployment isnt stable. Quite a jump was reported this month.

 

 

It's only a jump if you look at it and the most recent result before it. It's broadly in line with previous trends.

 

Having said that if Labour are going to claim credit for record low unemployment when it goes down then they should cop it when it goes up.

 

Agree, and explain why. If its hovering around what it has been, that's stable. It will never be 4.3 for 10 quarters, if it stayed in the 4.2 to 4.4 range, that's stable. As long as you can explain variances. Now, should the world issues head south as expected and unemployment increases, then what? Blame Labour or blame the world trends? The National people here have often has along list of excuses, some valid, some partially valid. Will the same apply to Labour?

tdgeek:

 

Agree, and explain why. If its hovering around what it has been, that's stable. It will never be 4.3 for 10 quarters, if it stayed in the 4.2 to 4.4 range, that's stable. As long as you can explain variances. Now, should the world issues head south as expected and unemployment increases, then what? Blame Labour or blame the world trends? The National people here have often has along list of excuses, some valid, some partially valid. Will the same apply to Labour?

 

In her own words: 

"Speaking to media at the Rātana celebrations, Ardern said she was "incredibly proud" of the drop in the jobless figure."

She said that 3.9 per cent number "will fluctuate, but [we're] very pleased with the progress we have made".

"To have unemployment the lowest it's been in a decade and employment the highest it's been in three is incredible."

If she wants the Labour party to get credit for a low number then it should be prepared to cop it when it goes up. I just think it would be smarter for them to see if the numbers are an actual trend instead of a fluctuation, which she even mentioned as a possibility 😋

GV27:

 

tdgeek:

 

Agree, and explain why. If its hovering around what it has been, that's stable. It will never be 4.3 for 10 quarters, if it stayed in the 4.2 to 4.4 range, that's stable. As long as you can explain variances. Now, should the world issues head south as expected and unemployment increases, then what? Blame Labour or blame the world trends? The National people here have often has along list of excuses, some valid, some partially valid. Will the same apply to Labour?

 

 

In her own words: 

 

"Speaking to media at the Rātana celebrations, Ardern said she was "incredibly proud" of the drop in the jobless figure."

 

She said that 3.9 per cent number "will fluctuate, but [we're] very pleased with the progress we have made".

 

"To have unemployment the lowest it's been in a decade and employment the highest it's been in three is incredible."

 

If she wants the Labour party to get credit for a low number then it should be prepared to cop it when it goes up. I just think it would be smarter for them to see if the numbers are an actual trend instead of a fluctuation, which she even mentioned as a possibility 😋

 

 

 

I guess thats typical of a politician, grab the bouquets while you can