NZ 2023 Election Thread

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#3148323 17-Oct-2023 08:33

MikeB4:

It will only be 1/3rd their policy. It is going to be an interesting eight months while the interim government attempts to deal with chaos then the hoardings go up again.

NZ First knows it would be smote out of existence if it collapsed a coalition or caused a second election. They have a pretty strong incentive to play ball.

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#3148327 17-Oct-2023 08:40

Peters will play his usual stupid games and then grab whatever baubles of office he can get.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#3148330 17-Oct-2023 08:46

Rikkitic:

Peters will play his usual stupid games and then grab whatever baubles of office he can get.

He will. ACT has been quite aggressive over National in the campaign. Often countering or criticising. Now, Dave and Winston will be competing for Head Boy. I.e. who gets "real change" (ACT's slogan is real change not just change) Outwardly it will all be serene and professional. Behind closed doors, not so much. There is no love lost between Peters and the other two. There is no future in being assimilated

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#3148331 17-Oct-2023 08:48

Rikkitic:

Does National actually have any policy other than undoing what Labour did?

Oh of course they do - there's roads, and ... ah, roads. Plus roads. Some gang bashing - hard to resist that one, wide appeal - plus roads. And finally, roads.

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#3148332 17-Oct-2023 08:50

GV27:

NZ First knows it would be smote out of existence if it collapsed a coalition or caused a second election. They have a pretty strong incentive to play ball.

Winston has been down and out several times and proven he can always come back. I don't think he's as afraid of being smote as you think he is. Now, NZF after Winston is a different story. Shane Jones is never going have his own cult of personality. It really is the Winston Peters party. So as long as Winston is alive and/or they forget to put a stake through the heart of his corpse, he is not afraid of a smiting.

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#3148337 17-Oct-2023 09:02

GV27:
MikeB4:

It will only be 1/3rd their policy. It is going to be an interesting eight months while the interim government attempts to deal with chaos then the hoardings go up again.

NZ First knows it would be smote out of existence if it collapsed a coalition or caused a second election. They have a pretty strong incentive to play ball.

It may not be NZF that deals the death blow

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#3148338 17-Oct-2023 09:04

@SaltyNZ you left out lots and lots of shiny Utes and plumes of yummy carbon

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#3148339 17-Oct-2023 09:05

GV27:

NZ First knows it would be smote out of existence if it collapsed a coalition or caused a second election. They have a pretty strong incentive to play ball.

Do you mean after the negotiations and the 3 party coalition was formed? I doubt that

If you mean prior to, there is no coalition to be collapsed as there would be no majority.

As regards a second election, IIRC only National has threatened that

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#3148359 17-Oct-2023 10:49

There are other possibilities, though very low probability.

If National do worse than expected in special votes.

If ACT, National needs NZF...
Which means ACT eating the 'dead rat' and doing NZF a solid, and they don't.

Ok...
NZF takes cross benches, and agrees to basic supply, and decides rest of case by case.
They can then be seen as responsible, for good of country fair dealers. Taking one for the team.

If National gets a favorite item of legislation stuck x months/years in a goes its snap election time.
National calling early election is then down to National, as they still have supply, and other legislation.

NZF can duck the responsibility, a grouping with marginal majority should not expect to get everything.
Risks run both ways. No specific promises beyond confidence and supply were made.
National, ACT, can be attacked for a 'winner takes all' attitude and not respecting MMP.

National, ACT may be more willing to give NZF a solid deal to bring them inside.
That makes any funny stuff afterwards NZF fault.
They can point to having specific agreements on policy support etc.
So risk is mainly to NZF.

Te Pāti Māori could be a wildcard, to support National, ACT, but that sort of pragmatism to get some power unlikely.
Especially supporting any Government with ACT in it at all given the echos of Don Brash.

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#3148361 17-Oct-2023 10:56

ezbee:

Te Pāti Māori could be a wildcard, to support National, ACT, but that sort of pragmatism to get some power unlikely.
Especially supporting any Government with ACT in it at all given the echos of Don Brash.

Can't see 2023's TPM wanting to work with NAct anymore than the Greens. Again - there is simply no common ground. Act are philosophically diametrically opposed to the idea of a TPM, and want nuke Te Tiriti.

I already used up my best simile on Greens + NAct --> Anglicans + Richard Dawkins. Maybe TPM + NAct is more like Lews Therin + The Dark One, for those (other) nerds who remember what the Dark One's ultimate mission was in The Wheel of Time.

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#3148367 17-Oct-2023 11:13

Luxon's incredible leadership is already paying off, ushering in a new golden age of falling inflation. Taking bets as to who will be the first to seriously make this claim - I reckon it'll be Chris Bishop.

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#3148368 17-Oct-2023 11:17

SaltyNZ:
Luxon's incredible leadership is already paying off, ushering in a new golden age of falling inflation. Taking bets as to who will be the first to seriously make this claim - I reckon it'll be Chris Bishop.

Look I don't think this election was about voting in CL. It was mainly voting out tLP by any means. So those votes have gone all over the place. WP, tGP, CL, TPM, etc.

That's how I see it.

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#3148370 17-Oct-2023 11:21

Batman:

Look I don't think this election was about voting in CL. It was mainly voting out tLP by any means. So those votes have gone all over the place. WP, tGP, CL, TPM, etc.

That's how I see it.

Oh I agree, but I can't see him shying away from taking undeserved credit for the economic turnaround. People with serious Prime Ministerial ambitions don't go giving credit where it's due when they can take it instead.

EDIT - not that it's even really due to Labour. It's international conditions improving. And they might get worse again with the situation in Gaza spilling over into a wider Middle East war.

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tdgeek

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#3148371 17-Oct-2023 11:22

ezbee:

There are other possibilities, though very low probability.

If National do worse than expected in special votes.

If ACT, National needs NZF...
Which means ACT eating the 'dead rat' and doing NZF a solid, and they don't.

Ok...
NZF takes cross benches, and agrees to basic supply, and decides rest of case by case.
They can then be seen as responsible, for good of country fair dealers. Taking one for the team.

If National gets a favorite item of legislation stuck x months/years in a goes its snap election time.
National calling early election is then down to National, as they still have supply, and other legislation.

NZF can duck the responsibility, a grouping with marginal majority should not expect to get everything.
Risks run both ways. No specific promises beyond confidence and supply were made.
National, ACT, can be attacked for a 'winner takes all' attitude and not respecting MMP.

National, ACT may be more willing to give NZF a solid deal to bring them inside.
That makes any funny stuff afterwards NZF fault.
They can point to having specific agreements on policy support etc.
So risk is mainly to NZF.

Te Pāti Māori could be a wildcard, to support National, ACT, but that sort of pragmatism to get some power unlikely.
Especially supporting any Government with ACT in it at all given the echos of Don Brash.

Didnt David Seymour threaten crossbenches? Maybe Im incorrect but I do recall a case by case scenario for ACT for their "real change"

If so, ACT threaten that, National threaten a new election, all a bit unstable.

End of the day they will come across as united even though we and they know they aren't. Looks good, just like campaign slogans sound good. NZF and ACT will get a decent or ok haul of what they want, being realistic that with the flagship Tax Policy, there aren't many available baubles. Probably with possibilities if the economy allows, for some other gains later.

It will be fine

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#3148374 17-Oct-2023 11:33

SaltyNZ:

Batman:

Look I don't think this election was about voting in CL. It was mainly voting out tLP by any means. So those votes have gone all over the place. WP, tGP, CL, TPM, etc.

That's how I see it.

Oh I agree, but I can't see him shying away from taking undeserved credit for the economic turnaround. People with serious Prime Ministerial ambitions don't go giving credit where it's due when they can take it instead.

EDIT - not that it's even really due to Labour. It's international conditions improving. And they might get worse again with the situation in Gaza spilling over into a wider Middle East war.

100% Gaza instability will add to oil prices. Global inflation is improving, its a supply issue and as supply chains catch up that slow drop will continue. We dont manufacture much here anymore so that wont help much. El Nino will help crops. But overall we ride the global wave of whatever is going on

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