And Brad Olsen also comes to mind.

Batman:

 

if you keep "predicting" something, eventually it will happen. to guarantee it will eventually happen you need to stick to the same prediction.

 

Hence the old quip along the lines of 'economists have predicted 12 out of the last 8 economic declines'.

wellygary: That's a bit unfair thou...

Only if you ignore the long history of their inaccuracies. Economists make weather forecasters look extremely accomplished.

MikeB4:

 

The Reverse Bank rate has not gone up yet.

 

Just trying to figure if this is a deliberate or accidental typo? 😀

Dratsab:

 

wellygary: That's a bit unfair thou...

 

Only if you ignore the long history of their inaccuracies. Economists make weather forecasters look extremely accomplished.

 

They are also trying to predict something with many variables. It's not an exact science.

Dingbatt:

 

MikeB4:

 

The Reverse Bank rate has not gone up yet.

 

 

Just trying to figure if this is a deliberate or accidental typo? 😀

 

A slip but a thought as well. I don't want to go back to the insane ways of the Reserve Bank under Brash. 

Handle9: It's not an exact science. 

I'll agree that economics is the pursuit and application of knowledge and follows a systematic methodology. However, the 'based on evidence' part can be a little sketchy, and the repeatable results are non-existent, as are the peer reviews/published consensus. It's not science at all - it's guesswork, based on a series of inputs, and tends to be somewhat inaccurate at the best of times. 

About 15 years ago I knew a chief economist with a major bank. Every time mortgage rates came up in the conversation he would tell me they were predicted to be going back to double figures and anyone taking out a mortgage at the time would struggle to afford the payments in a couple of years.

Yeah, well. We all know how that worked out.

martyyn:

About 15 years ago I knew a chief economist with a major bank. Every time mortgage rates came up in the conversation he would tell me they were predicted to be going back to double figures and anyone taking out a mortgage at the time would struggle to afford the payments in a couple of years.

Yeah, well. We all know how that worked out.

martyyn:

 

About 15 years ago I knew a chief economist with a major bank. Every time mortgage rates came up in the conversation he would tell me they were predicted to be going back to double figures and anyone taking out a mortgage at the time would struggle to afford the payments in a couple of years.

 

Yeah, well. We all know how that worked out.

 

tony alexander

MikeB4:

 

A slip but a thought as well. I don't want to go back to the insane ways of the Reserve Bank under Brash. 

 

Jeez, you’ve got a good memory. I can’t remember a single thing Brash did as a grey bureaucrat before his political days.

Handle9: 

Seems pretty accurate. I took out my first mortgage in 2006. From memory just before the GFC I was paying ~11%

We weren't paying anywhere near that in 2004.

martyyn:

Handle9: 

Seems pretty accurate. I took out my first mortgage in 2006. From memory just before the GFC I was paying ~11%

We weren't paying anywhere near that in 2004.

They all remind me of the crazy Soothsayer in Frankie Howerds Up Pompeii