Future of Telephony

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BDFL - Memuneh
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#843618 24-Jun-2013 20:45

A few years back I was telling some folks around that "voice" is the killer app.

It doesn't matter the pipe. It doesn't matter if it is IP or switched. It's the application, not the connections. Sure, fibre, LTE and so on will make things "faster" but at the end of the day is about communication. Voice is still the only signal that provides instant feedback, instant acknowledgement.

Will it be SIP, Skype, Viber with all different protocols? That's not the question. Those are no different than POTS in that they are implementations of one thing: communication.

You want to find how and why people communicate and communication is only truly complete when the message is received, understood and acknowledged. Voice does it faster than anything else.

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#843621 24-Jun-2013 20:48

TwoSeven:
DrCheese:
ajobbins:
I'd love to see a future where I have a communications identity (Probably my email address) that is a one stop shop for sending me not only email, but short messages, video and audio calls, and the rest. We're VERY VERY close now with the technology. I can't wait for the solutions.

This sounds vaguely familiar. Something similar was proposed more than a decade ago. Not sure if it went anywhere.

David.

The problem with having only one identity is that in reality, most people have many; each of which suites them for different purposes.

Remember E.164 ENUM? Yes, I had one before it was official. Good luck finding it in any working condition these days.

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#843622 24-Jun-2013 20:49

coffeebaron: My pick is HD voice being the next big thing as people start to move towards true IP phones, rather than an ATA.

My suggestion is that the concept of a 'phone' is rather redundant. I prefer to refer to 'point of communication' which encompasses different technologies. The problem with VOIP is that it really is limited to just voice over IP, whereas technology today is leading more towards 'media including data over IP'.

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TwoSeven

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#843625 24-Jun-2013 20:55

freitasm: A few years back I was telling some folks around that "voice" is the killer app.

It doesn't matter the pipe. It doesn't matter if it is IP or switched. It's the application, not the connections. Sure, fibre, LTE and so on will make things "faster" but at the end of the day is about communication. Voice is still the only signal that provides instant feedback, instant acknowledgement.

Will it be SIP, Skype, Viber with all different protocols? That's not the question. Those are no different than POTS in that they are implementations of one thing: communication.

You want to find how and why people communicate and communication is only truly complete when the message is received, understood and acknowledged. Voice does it faster than anything else.

I my last post I might (can't remember what I wrote) have referred to 'always on communication'. Think of it as making a phone call but never hanging up. Communication also involves a sense of 'connectedness' or a feeling of belonging and inclusiveness. People often send [text] messages to each other, not because they wish to communicate, but often because they want to feel included or connected with their peers - the classic 'sup' text message is an example and twitter is another.

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nate

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#843650 24-Jun-2013 21:40

surfisup1000: I don't get excited by any of this yet.

I moved to an IP phone recently. All the whizzy extra features are cool but not really necessary.

Maybe not as much in a personal capacity, but the business benefits of VoIP are massive. Some personal examples:

- I've just come back from the States. I was using my personal VFX number to keep in touch with my folks and partner for the cost of a local call. At the same time, I had my DDI registered to my mobile so I could continue to call and be contactable by clients.

- When in NZ, my DDI is registered to my home and office. If I work from home, I can make and receive calls as though I'm in the office. All works through standard broadband.

- Voicemail to email. No more annoying "press 1 for next message, 2 to delete BS". Same with faxes.

- We (3Bit) have freephone numbers registered in the UK, USA, Australia and here. All register to our IP PBX in our Newmarket offices, and all at a fraction of the running cost of the traditional methods.

- For my cafe, the main number is registered at the cafe, my home and my partner's mobile. If someone rings outside of hours, we can answer their call and secure their booking which equals dollars in our back pocket.

Unified communications is the buzz word at the moment. VoIP is a major part of making that happen.

disclaimer: I used to own a VoIP company.

Technofreak

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#843697 24-Jun-2013 22:29

I worked in Telecommunications for over 15 years, I got paid to leave over twenty years ago so that dates me a bit. I can remember seeing a movie during my training showing how the power company will be able to read you meter over the telecommunications network, they had it working in France over 30 years ago, we are only getting into this sort of technology now as main stream.

Also I remember being told there would be one pipe (fibre) going into your house, that would be your TV, radio, newspaper, phone etc. This was well over twenty years ago.The internet hadn't really got going at that stage. When I left Telecom videotext was just starting off, the very first stages of the internet as we know it today.

I guess what I'm saying is the idea of an integrated voice/data/communications network is by no means new. In some ways nothing much has changed over the the last 35 years, and yet in some ways a lot has changed especially in the mobile arena.

It's certainly an interesting area to be involved in if you like technology. I enjoyed my time in the industry and saw big technology changes during my time.

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jarledb

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#843705 24-Jun-2013 22:51

I would like to see more VOIP providers have features like Google Voice and their voicemail transcription. Being able to read what someone has left on your voicemail seems like a very useful feature.

Personally I am using two VOIP solutions for my contact with customers in Norway. It takes care of the headache of time zones by routing the calls that come in to me when I am awake, and to a call center in Norway when I am not.

The setup I will have it VOIP number in Norway that routes the trafic to the VOIP service in NZ with routing from there to either Softphone or mobile - depending on where I am. If I am not mistaken I will be able to use 2talk to have both phones ringing at the same time and pick up wherever I am.

Never been easier working on both sides of the planet at the same time :)

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ajobbins

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#843723 24-Jun-2013 23:37

jarledb: I would like to see more VOIP providers have features like Google Voice and their voicemail transcription. Being able to read what someone has left on your voicemail seems like a very useful feature.

Yes! Google Voice is amazing. But it's helped by the way the networks work in the US. There is no obvious distinction between fixed and mobile numbers, and calling a mobile vs. a landline is no different in terms of cost. Sure they pay for incoming mobile calls, but it (Google Voice) is a very cool product.

I'd like to see some though (globally) put into how we move forward with telecommunication addressing. If we continue with phone numbers, I would like to see some better standardisation with formatting. Like IP address, there should be ranges reserved for internal (off the grid) use which will make dial plans easier to manage. I'm also of the opinion that area codes are largely redundant these days. Country codes perhaps still have relevance, but maybe not forever.

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ubergeeknz

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#843733 25-Jun-2013 00:03

Here's my back of a postcard take on the future of telephony.

I think things such as video calling, etc, have been tried and found to be lacking in terms of general adoption. In most cases, you just need to get some words across and adding your face to the mix just isn't needed, or convenient. Voice is still king, even if some of the demand has been reduced by instant messaging, social networking and so on.

The world can move forward from "number addressing", area codes and so on, if we can shed ourselves of traditional switched voice networks.

Unfortunately telephony has a very long history, and network switching gear seems to have a very, very long (some might say TOO long, looking at you NEAX61) service life. So we won't be rid this stuff for a while - I mean look at IPv4. Apparently it's had it's day, and yet, IPv6 adoption is still barely a glimmer.

Also, it has to be said, the old E.164 dialling PSTN does the job adequately. The telephone is a most intuitive interface. You pick it up (or click), you enter a number (or select a person from your contacts list), and the call connects to the phone which has that number (wherever it is). When you're done, you put it down (or click again) to hang up. The user doesn't have to know or care how the job gets done.

Sure it'd be great to call people just like you email them, and have decentralised control, and just be charged for data (ala skype) but unless everyone gets on board with the new program, it becomes kind of moot (eg. you still need a telco to deliver calls to public network numbers). Also - how many people actually run their own email system? Not that many - most people pay for their email system to be run in some form or another. Why would voice be any different in that respect?

There's a lot of work to be done for this to happen - just the other day there was a thread about "how do I block people from calling my VoIP line by URL" - there's no widely accepted mechanism for decentralised authentication for starters. And that's before you get into quality of service on the public Internet, codec selection, general endpoint incompatibility (oh, so much of it), and so on.

Most of this is due to the sheer volume of legacy associated with VoIP operating within closed systems, and they are not insurmountable hurdles, but hurdles nonetheless.

Until there is some clamour to address them, I don't see the status quo changing awfully much in the near future. Trouble is, as I stated earlier, the current system works "well enough" - especially for those who run the back end and bill for minutes ;)

ajobbins

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#843735 25-Jun-2013 00:16

ubergeeknz: Until there is some clamour to address them, I don't see the status quo changing awfully much in the near future. Trouble is, as I stated earlier, the current system works "well enough" - especially for those who run the back end and bill for minutes ;)

I think one of the big drivers here tho is things like UFB. You can't have a traditional POTS line over UFB, so like it or not people are going to have VoIP rolled out to them (In one form or another). Also some of the legacy issues with VoIP (like call quality) start to go away with UFB because of the quality of the connection.

I have to disagree with you on Video Calling. You only have to look at the success of Skype (and to a lesser extent FaceTime) to see how popular this can be.

Once IP calling becomes the norm, I think the market will really heat up. With your mobile phone at the moment, you have a choice of one of three providers. With LTE and OTT services, you could have many more choices.

Email is a pretty standardised system. Sure it has it flaws (poor SPAM protection being probably the most important), but I think a similar model could work for VoIP. I just really hope they get the architecture right before it goes mainstream.

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#843736 25-Jun-2013 00:29

ajobbins: Email is a pretty standardised system. Sure it has it flaws (poor SPAM protection being probably the most important), but I think a similar model could work for VoIP. I just really hope they get the architecture right before it goes mainstream.

The architecture is there, SIP addressing works similarly to email. The only reason email is as mature as it is, is because it's been used in anger.

If VoIP got used in the same way, people would solve the associated problems.

SPAM is the truly interesting thing here. 20 years of it and still it's not entirely solved with email. A bit of email spam, annoying. People calling your phone at all hours? A little more than annoying ;) It does happen now, but while minutes cost $ it helps to keep the volume down. Wonder what would happen if international calling to anybody became almost free?

TwoSeven

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#843787 25-Jun-2013 08:55

I think when looking at the success or failure of a potential technology it is important to look at the demographic that might be using it, especially if we factor in age and trust and the ability to control the technology.

The other thing that affects a technology is the emotional cost of using it. SMS works really well because TXT messages are emotionless. Voice is a little different, but we are all familiar with the rules on making a voice call and how to be polite, but we don't actually have to deal with a physical person standing in front of us. Video changes all of that because it brings in an additional set of rules that not everyone is comfortable with all of the time.

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Technofreak

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#843806 25-Jun-2013 09:19

Also, it has to be said, the old E.164 dialling PSTN does the job adequately. The telephone is a most intuitive interface. You pick it up (or click), you enter a number (or select a person from your contacts list), and the call connects to the phone which has that number (wherever it is). When you're done, you put it down (or click again) to hang up. The user doesn't have to know or care how the job gets done.

Which pretty well explains why uptake of more modern systems than the PSTN is slow.

Unfortunately telephony has a very long history, and network switching gear seems to have a very, very long (some might say TOO long, looking at you NEAX61) service life.

I'm surprised how long the NEAX61 has been around for too. Then you look at how long Strowger (Step by Step) was around for before that!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

For a revolutionary telephony system to replace POTS in the short to medium there needs to be a a major driving force. Significant price advantage, significantly better interface, significantly more features that are not just seen as gimicks.

I see an evolutionary change as old technology becomes unsupportable and the other options gain better inter-operability or run on an accepted standard. Right row I cannot use one VOIP or similar system to call anyone else, I cannot call someone on Facetime with Skype. This will need to change.

One thing that is already happening is some people are opting just to have a mobile number with no PSTN, I see this becoming more the norm and perhaps variations on this.

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#843889 25-Jun-2013 11:34

ubergeeknz: The architecture is there, SIP addressing works similarly to email. The only reason email is as mature as it is, is because it's been used in anger.

If VoIP got used in the same way, people would solve the associated problems.

SPAM is the truly interesting thing here. 20 years of it and still it's not entirely solved with email. A bit of email spam, annoying. People calling your phone at all hours? A little more than annoying ;) It does happen now, but while minutes cost $ it helps to keep the volume down. Wonder what would happen if international calling to anybody became almost free?

Yep, I think you've hit the nail on the head there. Going forward, I think we will see more and more consented communications, ie. parties have agreed to be able to contact each other. Things like Skype already work this way.

When you add someone to your phone book on your mobile, in future perhaps they will then get a 'request' which will set up a trust relationship with you, allowing you to be contacted freely, while unauthorised contacts go direct to Voicemail (which by the way, would be delivered by email or similar)

Actually, on the topic of voicemail/email - I'd really like someone to write an Android app that is a IMAP client, but designed as a Visual Voicemail player. Right now with 2talk, I have my email sent to an IMAP capable mailbox. If there was a decent client that could connect to that and display the email, and play back the attached sound file through the handset speaker, I'd buy it.

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#843893 25-Jun-2013 11:36

TwoSeven: ... The other thing that affects a technology is the emotional cost of using it. SMS works really well because TXT messages are emotionless. Voice is a little different, but we are all familiar with the rules on making a voice call and how to be polite, but we don't actually have to deal with a physical person standing in front of us. Video changes all of that because it brings in an additional set of rules that not everyone is comfortable with all of the time.

I don't think we will see dramatic changes in the format going forward. There is a time and a place for voice, for text and for video. A standard such as SIP (And likewise Skype) can handle all three, and you can choose the most appropriate to use in the circumstances.

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