there are also 1 in 200 year events that can occur close to the 1 in 100 events, then 1 in 500 etc etc

There is. Two can happen in one year, then not for 200 years, but the point is, the distance between these is narrowing, a lot.

no not really sorry

even a 1:200 yr event can occur more than once every year.  Its a probability. 

imagine a 200 sided dice and you have to throw a 1.  you have 1 in 200 chances for it to occur..  once you land a 1 then you throw again... the chance is exactly the same 1:200 ... then throw again... and again...each time the chance is exactly the same.. 1:200 thus you can have a really lucky (or rather unlucky) streak in that you land a 1 several times in a row... 

The point is that the frequency of rolling a 1 seems to be more frequent now... due to urbanisation, climate change and changing weather patterns etc.. 

in 20 yrs time we will have a lot more monitoring data and understand where floods, heavy rainstorms, even earthquakes or volcanic eruptions are happening, etc etc .  With this data then we can reassess the probability of occurence and what was a 1:200 may then be considered a 1:50 (as we there a 1 a lot more times over a given time frame).

The magnitude or level of impact will then become the norm ! or rather a more frequent occurrence. 

statistics and probability

robbon44:

 

no not really sorry

 

even a 1:200 yr event can occur more than once every year.  Its a probability. 

 

imagine a 200 sided dice and you have to throw a 1.  you have 1 in 200 chances for it to occur..  once you land a 1 then you throw again... the chance is exactly the same 1:200 ... then throw again... and again...each time the chance is exactly the same.. 1:200 thus you can have a really lucky (or rather unlucky) streak in that you land a 1 several times in a row... 

 

The point is that the frequency of rolling a 1 seems to be more frequent now... due to urbanisation, climate change and changing weather patterns etc.. 

 

in 20 yrs time we will have a lot more monitoring data and understand where floods, heavy rainstorms, even earthquakes or volcanic eruptions are happening, etc etc .  With this data then we can reassess the probability of occurence and what was a 1:200 may then be considered a 1:50 (as we there a 1 a lot more times over a given time frame).

 

The magnitude or level of impact will then become the norm ! or rather a more frequent occurrence. 

 

statistics and probability

 

 

 

???

We know what probability means.

The point is that once, a weather event may have a 1% chance in any year. Thats gone. Not due to urbanisation its  due to climate change. While 1 in 100 or 200 or 10 is a convenient measure for the layman public, the issue is the probability is narrowing every day due to climate change. News websites will catch onto 1 in 100 becoming 1 in 50 and so on, thats just clickbait. Its changing continually now as we fall into the carbon trap. More monitoring data is of little use. We know how the parts per million have grown. Its not rocket science nor is it new, we have been watching this for a long long time. Arguably its been in more recent times that the effects have been seen. Prior the effects were still there bit more subtle, they meld into the annual variance of weather. More temperature means more weather. Its a lot easier for a few ducks to line up now.

What we have now is the norm, not a known level of probability, but a growing level. 

It's interesting that many are quick to blame weather events on AGW, when even the IPCC (who are not known for their understatement of climate change) say there is no increase:

The IPCC, the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, which is the sort of voice of the consensus, concedes that there has been no increase in extreme weather events. ... And some kinds of extreme weather events, there's a particular time increase, whereas others, like tropical storms, diminish”.Apr 10, 2018

https://www.thegwpf.org/gwpf-criticises-ofcom-for-getting-it-wrong-on-the-ipcc-and-extreme-weather/

shk292:

 

It's interesting that many are quick to blame weather events on AGW, when even the IPCC (who are not known for their understatement of climate change) say there is no increase:

 

The IPCC, the Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change, which is the sort of voice of the consensus, concedes that there has been no increase in extreme weather events. ... And some kinds of extreme weather events, there's a particular time increase, whereas others, like tropical storms, diminish”.Apr 10, 2018

 

https://www.thegwpf.org/gwpf-criticises-ofcom-for-getting-it-wrong-on-the-ipcc-and-extreme-weather/

 

What you bolded is not what is said in the same articles link at the bottom https://www.carbonbrief.org/what-the-ipcc-report-says-about-extreme-weather-events

It's hard to imagine when temperatures increase, water temp increases that there is no change in weather extremes. If this is the case, them climate change is not an issue, lets burn more FF as its fine after all.

Quotes

The science summed up in the new IPCC report shows that since the 1950s there have been clear changes in many types of extreme events.

We’ve experienced more hot days and heat waves, fewer cold nights, and an increase in the intensity and number of heavy rainfall events,

But scientists have identified certain parts of the ocean, like the North Atlantic, where the number of intense hurricanes has increased since the 1970s.

All in all, the IPCC report demonstrates that some types of extreme event will become more severe or intense or long lasting as the world warms.

End of Quotes

These articles caveat that they cannot guarantee anything, so they fall back on needing more data, plus its easy for a local phenomena to occur that can sway opinions. But when you warm the air, the ground temperature and the water you expand the weather. That cannot be argued.  If not, climate change is fallacy, OR climate change is real but it doesn't matter??

What I tend to see is the fact that its impossible to state X was due too Y so many see it as faulty as its not provable. When you look at a time period, its quite clear its getting worse. Take the extreme rain down south. Its just due to high water temps. We had those last year, we will have them next year, so its likely that the extreme rain they just had is noticing special, so its likely to occur often. But no one can categorically say that.