Commerce Commission final UBA Pricing

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6434 posts

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#928382 6-Nov-2013 20:22

surfisup1000:
hellonearthisman: It's still a win for Chorus, they will be getting more than what was originally where told before the ministers intervention. Chorus needs to stop moaning about the short term costs and look at their long term win that the UFB will give them.

I'm not sure this is correct.

With these price cuts UFB is a dead duck.

My feeling is most people will not bother with UFB now that copper is so cheap.

This causes downstream problems for UFB. Next gen web services will not be developed due to metcalfes law and the lack of interconnections ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe's_law

that is a load of BS. the government wanted the total price to be ~$37.50, the same as UFB. if this goes through, it will be ~$34, $3 less than UFB
Do you really think the difference between success or failure of UFB is going to come down to 3 measly bucks? no way. UFB will succeed if/when a killer app appears, and fail if it doesn't. So far nothing has appeared that will drive people to UFB.

$3 on the input price isn't going to make a jot of difference to that outcome.

surfisup1000

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#928421 6-Nov-2013 22:52

NonprayingMantis:
surfisup1000:
hellonearthisman: It's still a win for Chorus, they will be getting more than what was originally where told before the ministers intervention. Chorus needs to stop moaning about the short term costs and look at their long term win that the UFB will give them.

I'm not sure this is correct.

With these price cuts UFB is a dead duck.

My feeling is most people will not bother with UFB now that copper is so cheap.

This causes downstream problems for UFB. Next gen web services will not be developed due to metcalfes law and the lack of interconnections ...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe's_law

that is a load of BS. the government wanted the total price to be ~$37.50, the same as UFB. if this goes through, it will be ~$34, $3 less than UFB
Do you really think the difference between success or failure of UFB is going to come down to 3 measly bucks? no way. UFB will succeed if/when a killer app appears, and fail if it doesn't. So far nothing has appeared that will drive people to UFB.

$3 on the input price isn't going to make a jot of difference to that outcome.

I don't appreciate the language . Thank you.

I disagree with you. But, I don't think what you are saying is necessarily incorrect, these are just opinions and time will tell who is correct.

freitasm

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#928592 7-Nov-2013 11:01

And Slingshot goes wild:

Copper Tax proposal heads to court

CallPlus Limited has filed proceedings in the High Court in Wellington seeking a judicial review and declaratory judgment that the Government’s review of the Telecommunications Act 2001 does not comply with section 157AA of the Act and therefore cannot proceed.

Section 157AA of the Act requires the Government to commence a review of the policy framework for telecommunications regulation by the end of September 2016.
Section 157AA(3)(b) requires the minister to take into account ten factors, including:

the extent of network coverage of services provided on fibre, copper, wireless, and other telecommunications networks; and
the level of investment in fibre, copper, wireless, and other telecommunications networks, and the ability of access providers to recover that investment within a reasonable period; and
the ability of access providers to achieve, within a reasonable period, reasonable rates of return on their investment in telecommunications networks that adequately reflect the risks assumed by those access providers when the relevant investments were made; and
the level of competition in relevant telecommunications markets; and
the effects of the regulatory framework under this Act on investment in fibre, copper, wireless, and other telecommunications networks, and on outcomes for end-users; and
the sustainability of the regulatory framework under this Act, given developments in technology and convergence of traditional telecommunications markets; and
the importance of any regulatory intervention being proportionate, having regard to the problems being addressed, the size of the relevant market, and the number and size of the potentially regulated entities; and
developments in wireless solutions and whether they should be part of any telecommunications regulation; and
experience in comparable jurisdictions and economic relations with Australia, weighed against what is appropriate for New Zealand conditions and the make-up and history of New Zealand's telecommunications markets; and
any other matters that the Minister considers relevant.

The discussion document has only dealt with the pricing of Chorus’s copper broadband and voice services network. It has failed to address any of the matters mandated under 157AA(3)(b) of the Act which should be a critical part of the review process.

“We have some concerns that the Government has not taken into account a number of factors that will have a material impact on the competitive market and most importantly our customers. The Government should stop the consultation process as it would be wrong to launch major new policy initiatives or legislation until this matter has been reviewed“ says Mark Callander, CEO of CallPlus.

crackrdbycracku

1168 posts

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#928641 7-Nov-2013 11:36

Lazarui:

In reality its a Flash Car vs. A Non Flash Car comparison not apples/oranges for 80% of consumers at this point.

But building the UFB is a good idea because ... ?

Seriously, somebody did the cost benefit analysis on this, right?

We upgraded from a 2G to 3G on mobile because there was a rational, a cheaper 2G service was absolutely no threat to 3G. If cheaper copper wire kills the UFB then I would say we didn't need the UFB in the first place.

Didn't anybody tell you I was a hacker?

old3eyes

9119 posts

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#928706 7-Nov-2013 12:18

crackrdbycracku:
Lazarui:

In reality its a Flash Car vs. A Non Flash Car comparison not apples/oranges for 80% of consumers at this point.

But building the UFB is a good idea because ... ?

Seriously, somebody did the cost benefit analysis on this, right?

We upgraded from a 2G to 3G on mobile because there was a rational, a cheaper 2G service was absolutely no threat to 3G. If cheaper copper wire kills the UFB then I would say we didn't need the UFB in the first place.

I think it's a state of natural progression. Like when we turn off analog TV for digital. Dial up internet to ADSL etc.

Regards,

Old3eyes

crackrdbycracku

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#928716 7-Nov-2013 12:35

old3eyes:

I think it's a state of natural progression. Like when we turn off analog TV for digital. Dial up internet to ADSL etc.

True, but actual demand has to drive the progression for it to be natural, right?

If nobody sees a benefit in the 'upgrade' then the upgrade either dies or is forced on people if the market will bare that.

The digital switch came at a time when I was buying a new TV anyway but plenty of older people are unsure why they are spending money on a new box to watch the same shows.

I guess what I am asking is why nobody has shown the obvious 'killer app' for the UFB. For phones 2G meant text and voice, 3G means text, voice, email and the internet.

The UFB equivalent is .... ?

Didn't anybody tell you I was a hacker?

k1wi

484 posts

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#928739 7-Nov-2013 12:58

Well, I did give a few... Which applies to whom is a matter of their own context. For most I personally think it's largely around bumping up the upload speed, however if TV over fibre kicks off, that might be a huge leap and one that will really give Sky a fight.

One of the difficulties with 'killer app' and UFB is that there are overlapping capabilities and limitations in coverage. That is, VDSL covers much of the same turf/bandwidth as entry level UFB, as does DOCSIS3 cable, however both are relatively geographically limited, for different reasons (technical/competitive(?)). UFB will give faster speeds to more people, with more room for future growth.

Evolving the current network while doable is meeting more and more limitations. Fibre is about investing in the future.

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Otagolad

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#928766 7-Nov-2013 13:31

Anyone heard anything from the other UFB providers (e.g. Enable) as to what they think about the ComCom decision - surely anything that might delay uptake of UFB is a threat to them as well.

Athlonite

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#928851 7-Nov-2013 15:39

crackrdbycracku For phones 2G meant text and voice, 3G means text, voice, email and the internet.

Not a very good analogy everything you can do on 3G is also doable on 2G just at a slower pace what it should look like is this

2G > 3G better network speed meant you can do the same stuff but faster
3G > 4G (LTE) same again

Dialup > ADSL > ADSL2+ > VDSL2 > UFB same things can be done just much faster rate than before so you spend alot less time waiting which can for a business mean increases in productivity but for home use not so much unless your working from home or use really high bandwidth requiring apps

crackrdbycracku

1168 posts

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#928856 7-Nov-2013 15:44

@Athlonite:

Agreed.

What do you think about my overall point that if a price drop for the copper wire broadband service is a threat to UFB then the case for UFB is pretty shaky?

Didn't anybody tell you I was a hacker?

Athlonite

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#928865 7-Nov-2013 15:54

for home use I can see it being a bit of a problem convincing people to jump to UFB my mum for instance uses email and a tiny bit of browsing to craft sites UFB in her case would be a waste of time and money she'd never make use of the available bandwidth/speed

Me on the other hand who does PC repair and strem high def vids at home well whole different story

personally the govt should just make it mandatory to switch just like the digital TV switch over

k1wi

484 posts

Ultimate Geek

#928872 7-Nov-2013 15:59

Athlonite: Dialup > ADSL > ADSL2+ > VDSL2 > UFB

I had an almost identical path in an unsubmitted draft of my earlier reply :)

Although I might suggest:

Dialup > ADSL > ADSL2+ > VDSL2 > UFB(xPON) > UFB (AON)
>-- Cable -->

Athlonite

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#928878 7-Nov-2013 16:09

k1wi:
Athlonite: Dialup > ADSL > ADSL2+ > VDSL2 > UFB
I had an almost identical path in an unsubmitted draft of my earlier reply :)

Although I might suggest:

Dialup > ADSL > ADSL2+ > VDSL2 > UFB(xPON) > UFB (AON)
>-- Cable -->

Cable was never an option here in the Hawkes Bay as it was stopped shortly after telstra bought Saturn

trig42

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#928879 7-Nov-2013 16:10

crackrdbycracku:
old3eyes:

I think it's a state of natural progression. Like when we turn off analog TV for digital. Dial up internet to ADSL etc.

True, but actual demand has to drive the progression for it to be natural, right?

If nobody sees a benefit in the 'upgrade' then the upgrade either dies or is forced on people if the market will bare that.

The digital switch came at a time when I was buying a new TV anyway but plenty of older people are unsure why they are spending money on a new box to watch the same shows.

I guess what I am asking is why nobody has shown the obvious 'killer app' for the UFB. For phones 2G meant text and voice, 3G means text, voice, email and the internet.

The UFB equivalent is .... ?

Actual demand may not be there right now, but the UFB rollout was scheduled to take until 2019.
I don't know what my data needs will be in 2019, or even in 2015, but I can be certain that they will be more than I need/want/use now.

If we delay building a UFB network until the consensus says we need it, it will be too late. Like Auckland's (lack of a) public transport network. It was proposed back in the 70s and has been umm'd and arr'd ever since. We need it now, but it is too late for it.

I think one of the killer apps for UFB will be IPTV. It just has to be done right and easy to drive. It will take a big leap by a big company I suppose (Telecom, Sky, Vodafone, NewsCorp even Apple or Google?)

crackrdbycracku

1168 posts

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#928888 7-Nov-2013 16:24

trig42:

I think one of the killer apps for UFB will be IPTV. It just has to be done right and easy to drive. It will take a big leap by a big company I suppose (Telecom, Sky, Vodafone, NewsCorp even Apple or Google?)

I agree. We need vision to build the things we need before we need them. My example is always the different habour bridges in Auckland and Sydney has.

But we the people need to be sold on the idea. We need leaders of vision to show there is a future we think is worth of buying into. After all there is always an opportunity cost and we have to pay for this stuff up front.

Working from home could be enabled by the UFB and actually make cities a lot more liveable because any reduction to rush hour traffic is an improvement anywhere. But where is the incentive for companies and staff to come together to enable this?

I completely agree that IPTV would be the killer app for UFB. A TV episode at 720p is about a GB and a half. Imagine if you could pay a reasonable subscription to stream that to your home? We can argue about how much 'reasonable' would be later.

Again however we seem to lack vision. Vested interests would lose out in a change to IPTV so we drag our feet. There is a clue above.

Didn't anybody tell you I was a hacker?

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