Real estate, post level 4

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#3264661 26-Jul-2024 12:41

mattwnz:I've noticed that the NZ media doesn't mention the words 'house price crash', yet it is being used overseas to describe NZs housing market https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/05/new-zealands-house-price-crash-is-one-for-the-ages/

This graph is a horror show. It's no wonder renters believe they'll never get onto the property ladder.

New Zealand ranked as the sixth least affordable country in the world to purchase property.

However, worldwide economists suggest that a reasonable measure for affordable housing is for prices to stay within three times household income.

For example, if you and your partner earn $100,000 combined, the maximum you should borrow as an owner-occupier is $300,000.

According to today's Trademe listing, this is barely within the limits of a South Auckland tiny rural titlehold bach, no garaging, no decking and no landscaping, with a 90 minute commute one-way best-case to Auckland CBD, flood prone, at QV $485,000, asking for $585,000

kingdragonfly

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#3264667 26-Jul-2024 12:50

mattwnz:I've noticed that the NZ media doesn't mention the words 'house price crash', yet it is being used overseas to describe NZs housing market https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/05/new-zealands-house-price-crash-is-one-for-the-ages/

This graph is a horror show. It's no wonder renters believe they'll never get onto the property ladder.

New Zealand ranked as the sixth least affordable country in the world to purchase property.

If your annual salary is $100,000, the 30% rule suggests you should spend around $2,500 per month on your house payment. Assuming a 10% down payment and a 6% fixed interest rate, you could likely afford a home worth around $350,000 to $400,000 (depending on the cost of taxes and home insurance)

According to today's Trademe listing, a low quality South Auckland tiny rural titlehold bach, no garaging, no decking and no landscaping, with a 90 minute commute one-way best-case to Auckland CBD is asking for $585,000

cddt

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#3264704 26-Jul-2024 15:22

GV27:

But yes, you're right, and something I'm trying to drum into people at work looking at forecasts; even once the rates start to drop, people still hold out for longer expecting them to go lower. Holding out on re-fixing on mortgage has seen us 'gain' 0.15% on our loan rates in a few weeks.

You're right about that - the average rate paid is still increasing as the tail end of people who fixed long on low rates start to roll off.

See the average interest rate paid per quarter (per RBNZ data). Even if the OCR drops it will be a long time before the average rate paid drops to say 5%, despite everyone fixing short nowadays.

Mar 2019 4.51%
Jun 2019 4.50%
Sep 2019 4.44%
Dec 2019 4.25%
Mar 2020 4.08%
Jun 2020 3.80%
Sep 2020 3.66%
Dec 2020 3.47%
Mar 2021 3.20%
Jun 2021 3.05%
Sep 2021 2.93%
Dec 2021 3.02%
Mar 2022 3.00%
Jun 2022 3.33%
Sep 2022 3.82%
Dec 2022 4.19%
Mar 2023 4.49%
Jun 2023 4.90%
Sep 2023 5.33%
Dec 2023 5.73%
Mar 2024 5.96%
Jun 2024 6.18%

My referral links: BigPipe | Mercury

quickymart

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#3264762 26-Jul-2024 19:19

kingdragonfly:
mattwnz:I've noticed that the NZ media doesn't mention the words 'house price crash', yet it is being used overseas to describe NZs housing market https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/05/new-zealands-house-price-crash-is-one-for-the-ages/

This graph is a horror show. It's no wonder renters believe they'll never get onto the property ladder.

Majorly depressing, especially when I dug up a copy of the Herald from 2002 and found a new home selling in an Auckland suburb for - get this - $280,000. And back then that was considered "expensive" 🙄

Even allowing for inflation, there's no way the price it would be today is anywhere near approaching realistic. And the line "oh are things are more expensive than back then - but you earn more!" doesn't really mean much to me either.

Handle9

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#3264764 26-Jul-2024 19:23

eracode:

tweake:

omg, stuff just deleted their comment section. i guess people pointing out the obvious was not making the RE gods happy.

I can still see the comments.

Yup and there are plenty of negative ones.

tdgeek

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#3264768 26-Jul-2024 20:01

mattwnz:

I've noticed that the NZ media doesn't mention the words 'house price crash', yet it is being used overseas to describe NZs housing market https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2023/05/new-zealands-house-price-crash-is-one-for-the-ages/

Banks are hoping that the reserve bank is going to reduce interest rates later this year to get the market going again and get prices back on the way up. But time will tell.

Still above 2020 prices though. Graphs are a wonderful thing

tweake

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#3264769 26-Jul-2024 20:04

Handle9:

Yup and there are plenty of negative ones.

had a quick look and nah. theres barely any and infact mine is the only one that touches on the subject of income. everyone else who commented on that is long gone.

Tradepub

Free professional, reference and technical white papers (affiliate link).

eracode

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#3264780 26-Jul-2024 20:35

Honestly - who gives a big fat RA about any comments on Stuff?

Sometimes I just sit and think. Other times I just sit.

tweake

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#3265088 27-Jul-2024 10:47

eracode:

Honestly - who gives a big fat RA about any comments on Stuff?

about as much as reviews on a web shopping store. its no different to companies that delete bad reviews of their products/services.

the comments are there is to make the story look like its approved, that its message is true, to influence the market. in this case they have manipulated that to give legitimacy to an RE industry puff piece.

you may not care, but there is people on here that are suffering because they bought while highly likely influenced by all the media stories about how good it is to buy a home. but at least a lot of the articles allowed comments which helped offset the poor intent of the articles.

Batman

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#3265126 27-Jul-2024 13:43

kingdragonfly:

This graph is a horror show. It's no wonder renters believe they'll never get onto the property ladder.

except that

Teenagers buy their own home after years of saving at their supermarket jobs

https://www.stuff.co.nz/home-property/350341096/teenagers-buy-their-own-home-after-years-saving-their-supermarket-jobs

quickymart

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#3265130 27-Jul-2024 13:55

Batman:

kingdragonfly:

This graph is a horror show. It's no wonder renters believe they'll never get onto the property ladder.

except that

Teenagers buy their own home after years of saving at their supermarket jobs

https://www.stuff.co.nz/home-property/350341096/teenagers-buy-their-own-home-after-years-saving-their-supermarket-jobs

Except that...

Simmons’ parents helped, he says, with discipline, by feeding him, and by allowing the pair to live at home with them, paying $100 a week each in board.

If I only had to pay $100 a week in living costs, I'd be able to save quite a lot of money, too.

eracode

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#3265132 27-Jul-2024 14:12

tweake:

eracode:

Honestly - who gives a big fat RA about any comments on Stuff?

about as much as reviews on a web shopping store. its no different to companies that delete bad reviews of their products/services.

the comments are there is to make the story look like its approved, that its message is true, to influence the market. in this case they have manipulated that to give legitimacy to an RE industry puff piece.

you may not care, but there is people on here that are suffering because they bought while highly likely influenced by all the media stories about how good it is to buy a home. but at least a lot of the articles allowed comments which helped offset the poor intent of the articles.

Yeah - so there’s no place for individual thought and common sense any more. We’re all reef-fish?

Sometimes I just sit and think. Other times I just sit.

tweake

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#3265135 27-Jul-2024 14:23

eracode:

Yeah - so there’s no place for individual thought and common sense any more. We’re all reef-fish?

there is still personal responsibility so i can't feel overly sorry for them. however scamming is illegal for a reason.

eracode

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#3265136 27-Jul-2024 14:27

tweake:

eracode:

Yeah - so there’s no place for individual thought and common sense any more. We’re all reef-fish?

there is still personal responsibility so i can't feel overly sorry for them. however scamming is illegal for a reason.

Very difficult to protect people from their own foolishness.

Sometimes I just sit and think. Other times I just sit.

tweake

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#3265139 27-Jul-2024 14:32

Batman:

kingdragonfly:

This graph is a horror show. It's no wonder renters believe they'll never get onto the property ladder.

except that

Teenagers buy their own home after years of saving at their supermarket jobs

https://www.stuff.co.nz/home-property/350341096/teenagers-buy-their-own-home-after-years-saving-their-supermarket-jobs

and as i've mentioned before, the bit they kept deleting is that to save up $160k by 21 years old means they must have a well paying job straight out of school. not the usually minimal paid job most get. i think someone worked out they would be paying $50k a year in mortgage payments alone. all on a school leavers income.

so if your born into the right decade, or into a wealthy family, or walk straight into a well paying job, you get to buy a house.

years ago a 20 something buying a house was normal, now its a news article. its also propaganda to try to get everyone else to go spend every cent they have on overinflated houses.

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