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kingdragonfly

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  #3298643 17-Oct-2024 16:40
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Speaking about New Zealand broadly, last month published sales across all regions were up a tiny bit, from a completely non-existent sales two months ago.

Nationwide I expect lowered rates will finally convince a few sellers of existing homes to get into the market.

My understanding is it costs more to build new than buy an existing home, and a lot of that is due to the monopolies on building supplies.

There has been a net gain in New Zealand net migration, but that was due to arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens. I would guess this arriving group would be more likely to rent than buy.

for 2023-2024

+377,500 arrival of Non-Zealand citizens

-178,200 departure of New Zealand citizens



Handle9
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  #3298646 17-Oct-2024 16:45
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kingdragonfly:

My understanding is it costs more to build new than buy an existing home, and a lot of that is due to the monopolies on building supplies.

 

That's a very superficial and inaccurate view.


tweake
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  #3298649 17-Oct-2024 16:53
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kingdragonfly: Speaking about New Zealand broadly, last month published sales across all regions were up a tiny bit, from a completely non-existent sales two months ago.

Nationwide I expect lowered rates will finally convince a few sellers of existing homes to get into the market.

My understanding is it costs more to build new than buy an existing home, and a lot of that is due to the monopolies on building supplies.

There has been a net gain in New Zealand net migration, but that was due to arrivals of non-New Zealand citizens. I would guess this arriving group would be more likely to rent than buy.

for 2023-2024

+377,500 arrival of Non-Zealand citizens

-178,200 departure of New Zealand citizens

 

i have notice a lot of houses up for sale locally, but many are asking stupidly high prices. eg one is asking 30% above what the prices where at the peak. even tho prices have fallen since then. people looking for suckers to buy their house.




Handle9
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  #3298650 17-Oct-2024 16:56
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lxsw20:

 

We put an offer in on a place that was being sold through Deadline sale (basically a blind auction) and just missed out. Our lawyer was saying it wasn't auctions pushing prices up so much as it was Deadline sale.

 

It's not the missing out on the house that hurts as much as all the admin we will have to do again to get an offer in on the next place - getting the bank to approve the house so we can do Cash offer, getting proof that the house can be insured etc. 

 

 

That sucks. Buying and selling houses is a total PITA.


quickymart
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  #3298676 17-Oct-2024 18:45
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tweake:

 

i have notice a lot of houses up for sale locally, but many are asking stupidly high prices. eg one is asking 30% above what the prices where at the peak. even tho prices have fallen since then. people looking for suckers to buy their house.

 

 

I know, right? A place I used to rent is up for sale. I believe it was originally purchased for about $430,000 sometime in 2014. Asking price for it today is around $620,000 - but that place needs a tonne of work done it, as the landlord was not good at doing repairs to anything.

 

If I was in a position to buy it (which I'm not) I would be making a far, far lower offer than the asking price, as I know what needs to be done to make it half-decent.


Handle9
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  #3298680 17-Oct-2024 18:50
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quickymart:

 

tweake:

 

i have notice a lot of houses up for sale locally, but many are asking stupidly high prices. eg one is asking 30% above what the prices where at the peak. even tho prices have fallen since then. people looking for suckers to buy their house.

 

 

I know, right? A place I used to rent is up for sale. I believe it was originally purchased for about $430,000 sometime in 2014. Asking price for it today is around $620,000 - but that place needs a tonne of work done it, as the landlord was not good at doing repairs to anything.

 

If I was in a position to buy it (which I'm not) I would be making a far, far lower offer than the asking price, as I know what needs to be done to make it half-decent.

 

 

The purchase price today has nothing much to do with the price that was paid in 2014.

 

Even if you want to use that as a metric from a basic inflation perspective $430k in 2014 is worth ~$565k today. $620k seems a fairly modest premium.


blackjack17
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  #3298688 17-Oct-2024 19:49
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mattwnz:

 

  I was looking at Auckland rates, and their rates seem relatively low. Maybe that is one of the benefits of a supercity. Then there was an article that water rates in Wellington regions cities and town could rise to 4k per household, just for the water services. Something is very very wrong.

 

 

Auckland, lots of people in a small area means infrastructure is cheaper.

 

Places like Ruapehu few people in a large area means infrastructure is expensive.

 

Wellington is you have have had decades of under investment and now it is starting to show. 





 
 
 

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Handle9
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  #3298689 17-Oct-2024 19:52
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blackjack17:

 

mattwnz:

 

  I was looking at Auckland rates, and their rates seem relatively low. Maybe that is one of the benefits of a supercity. Then there was an article that water rates in Wellington regions cities and town could rise to 4k per household, just for the water services. Something is very very wrong.

 

 

Auckland, lots of people in a small area means infrastructure is cheaper.

 

Places like Ruapehu few people in a large area means infrastructure is expensive.

 

Wellington is you have have had decades of under investment and now it is starting to show. 

 

 

The old Auckland City rates have always been low. They sold a lot of assets in the 90s and 2000s but didn't fritter them away. If anything the supercity made it worse for Auckland City ratepayers and better for the likes of Waitakere and North Shore who were basket cases.

 

Making Watercare a CCO and charging for consumption was one of the better strategic decisions that has been made in local body politics.


quickymart
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  #3348910 1-Mar-2025 09:22
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https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/how-did-nz-house-prices-quadruple-in-the-space-of-25-years-47093

 

In 2000, people spent roughly a third of their income on mortgage repayments but now they spend about half. The figure is currently 48% so has fallen a bit from the 57% peak after Covid, but spending half an income on the mortgage is still hard yakka.

 

[CoreLogic’s head of research Nick] Goodall says the last few years have been the “worst ever” for affordability and the conversation has shifted from “can you get a mortgage?” to “how much are you paid?”

 

“You have to factor in, can we afford half our income on the mortgage? That’s just the mortgage, let alone all the other expenses – what’s your insurance, what’s your rates, what’s your maintenance, and when you think about the inflation we’ve had to endure. All of those things.”

 

He says the only way back to paying a third of an income on the mortgage would be for incomes to grow more than house prices for a sustained period, for interest rates to stay low or drop further, and for the construction industry to build 35,000 houses a year.

 

An interesting read on what has made housing so unaffordable in the space of 25 years - and can anything be done to make things better?


tweake
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  #3348923 1-Mar-2025 10:36
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quickymart:

 

An interesting read on what has made housing so unaffordable in the space of 25 years - and can anything be done to make things better?

 

 

its easy enough to fix, but thats not really the issue.

 

the big issue is wanting it to be fixed. kiwis are addicted to housing and like most addicts they won't quit until they hit rock bottom, or someone plays the bad guy and takes it away from them. labor could have done nz a huge favor by letting the housing market crash instead of tinkering with it to keep it going. then kiwis would be open to fixing it. the country would be stuffed but thats much the norm.

 

we loose so much money because of the housing market, that national might actually have to fix it so nz stops bleeding money. 


quickymart
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  #3348930 1-Mar-2025 11:04
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tweake:

 

its easy enough to fix, but thats not really the issue.

 

the big issue is wanting it to be fixed. kiwis are addicted to housing and like most addicts they won't quit until they hit rock bottom, or someone plays the bad guy and takes it away from them. labor could have done nz a huge favor by letting the housing market crash instead of tinkering with it to keep it going. then kiwis would be open to fixing it. the country would be stuffed but thats much the norm.

 

we loose so much money because of the housing market, that national might actually have to fix it so nz stops bleeding money. 

 

 

Indeed, the article alludes to exactly what you said:

 

Goodall says one of the drivers over the years which has impacted affordability is the development of an unwavering belief by New Zealanders in the safety of property.

 

That goes back to the 1980s when baby boomers were burnt by the stock market crash and flocked to bricks and mortar to fund their retirements.

 

The residential property market today is worth around $1.62 trillion – “no other investment class is worth anywhere near that”. 

 

National and Labour could indeed do something big to fix it instead of tinkering around the edges - but that's likely to p-ss some group off, who will want to vote them out at the next election - which neither of the parties will want.


tweake
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  #3348941 1-Mar-2025 11:36
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quickymart:

 

Indeed, the article alludes to exactly what you said:

 

Goodall says one of the drivers over the years which has impacted affordability is the development of an unwavering belief by New Zealanders in the safety of property.

 

That goes back to the 1980s when baby boomers were burnt by the stock market crash and flocked to bricks and mortar to fund their retirements.

 

The residential property market today is worth around $1.62 trillion – “no other investment class is worth anywhere near that”. 

 

National and Labour could indeed do something big to fix it instead of tinkering around the edges - but that's likely to p-ss some group off, who will want to vote them out at the next election - which neither of the parties will want.

 

 

unless the parties do it together.  if they get support of most parties then it won't matter who they upset.

 

 


mattwnz
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  #3349037 1-Mar-2025 16:29
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Handle9:

 

blackjack17:

 

 

 

Auckland, lots of people in a small area means infrastructure is cheaper.

 

Places like Ruapehu few people in a large area means infrastructure is expensive.

 

Wellington is you have have had decades of under investment and now it is starting to show. 

 

 

The old Auckland City rates have always been low. They sold a lot of assets in the 90s and 2000s but didn't fritter them away. If anything the supercity made it worse for Auckland City ratepayers and better for the likes of Waitakere and North Shore who were basket cases.

 

Making Watercare a CCO and charging for consumption was one of the better strategic decisions that has been made in local body politics.

 

 

That is the problem, some areas have to spend a huge amount due to a lack of investment and small ratepayer numbers, and some areas don't. When the councils amalgamate, then often some areas end up having to do a lot of the heavy lifting. The same exact situation appears to be  occurring in the Wairarapa at the moment with water services, where they don't want to join up with Wellington. But Masterton ratepayers would be doing a lot of the heavy lifting and essentially paying for the infrastructure in other areas, based on the numbers in the articles I have seen.  

 

But IMO the entire ratings system is broken and they need to rate based on people and the service they use, and councils need to go back to only providing core services. Far too many vanity projects have occurred costing ratepayers millions.


tweake
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  #3349073 1-Mar-2025 19:48
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mattwnz:

 

But IMO the entire ratings system is broken and they need to rate based on people and the service they use, and councils need to go back to only providing core services. Far too many vanity projects have occurred costing ratepayers millions.

 

 

yes, but also many people voted out any one who mentions rate increases. "i don't want to pay for ...". so instead of small increase over a long time, we are forced to do a massive increase to do repairs etc. maintenance budgets got raided for vanity projects.

 

you really need govt to mandate councils to prioritize core services and maintenance.


mattwnz
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  #3349080 1-Mar-2025 21:53
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tweake:

 

mattwnz:

 

But IMO the entire ratings system is broken and they need to rate based on people and the service they use, and councils need to go back to only providing core services. Far too many vanity projects have occurred costing ratepayers millions.

 

 

yes, but also many people voted out any one who mentions rate increases. "i don't want to pay for ...". so instead of small increase over a long time, we are forced to do a massive increase to do repairs etc. maintenance budgets got raided for vanity projects.

 

you really need govt to mandate councils to prioritize core services and maintenance.

 

 

 

 

i think the council services need to be funded from general taxes including income tax. That means everyone pays a fair share based on their income. At the moment rates are a form of wealth tax, and it has no relationship with the amount of services are used by a property. Because of this councils aren’t able to capture enough rates. A house with 8 adults use a lot more services than the same house with just 1 person in it. Yet per person, a person in the 8 person houses pays just 1/8 of the amount.  That imo is unfair and shows that more money could be captured if they change things


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