Real estate, post level 4

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#2619598 10-Dec-2020 18:31

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

I remember during lockdown when the RB removed the LVRs, there was talk abut opening the housing market back up to international buyers again, as banks economists were predicting a 15% fall in house prices. Shows how much economists don't know.

Yep, but when I read all that I believed it, Im sure everyone did. Unemployment, business struggles, low GDP, low retail, housing issues, so easy to see that. Essentially a covid depression affecting the vast majority of us.

It could happen overseas, and NZ will be affected by what happens overseas, but it can take a long time to really know how things will go, and if it bounces back. Covid is worse than ever overseas, while in NZ we are in our own little covid free bubble buying and selling houses, with nowhere to go.

tdgeek

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#2619599 10-Dec-2020 18:31

mattwnz:

But the market needs new FHBs entering the market, otherwise it runs out of people who can afford to buy houses

I agree 110%, except that feeds the problem. Make it so that FHB build their house. This adds to housing stock, Their rental is now free, rental demand reduces, might get sold, so another FHB sorted. Target buyers and send that to new builds, make new builds a no brainer. A grant as Kiwisaver does. Subsidise interest rates for new build, the buyers can pay the extra interest rate that subsidises the new build. Im sure that there is a lot that can be done to incentives new builds. I own my home I want to build now as its a great idea now, but as I'm building, I avoid the Stamp Duty that is now levied on existing sales. Then the builders are forever hiring staff, another benefit.

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#2619604 10-Dec-2020 18:35

mattwnz:

It could happen overseas, and NZ will be affected by what happens overseas, but it can take a long time to really know how things will go, and if it bounces back. Covid is worse than ever overseas, while in NZ we are in our own little covid free bubble buying and selling houses, with nowhere to go.

Agree. GFC affected us a lot less than others, our exports seem too be going great? Retail is going great (tis there are sectors doing it tougher)

But if we can be while in NZ we are in our own little covid free bubble building houses, with nowhere to go then thats good for the local economy and employment. A building boom would add a great deal to our economy. Builders, contractors, trades teaching institutions, and the myriad of support businesses.

mattwnz

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#2619609 10-Dec-2020 18:35

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

One thing I have noticed, and think could be happening, is that these various property estimation websites could be helping to push up prices even more than normal, especially with the limited stock on the market. We are hearing more and more in the media saying to ignore the RV on the price, and also from agents, as they say they often say they out of date and inaccurate to what buyers will pay. But even these utomated valuation websites can vary significantly between websites, and some of the estimation ranges on some properties I have seen seem very very high. People seem to be using these figures as starting points to value a house,and using them to justify paying a high price. I remember when people used the RVs to get a good idea of a property value, which was before these websites existed, and based the price they offer on that. I think some councils in Wellington, alao updated their RV prices annually so they were accurate. . So I wouldn't be surprised if these are having some affect on increasing prices more than normal, as what someone is prepared to pay on a house can be psychological, as they want to be able to justify paying a certain price. . If they can get it cheaper than a high estimate, then they may thing they have got a good deal and saved money.

I agree. Its fair if the agent does their best to get the best price, but I read that as well, its over the line. You and I are not real estate agents, we are lay people, we love the house, we will hear what they say and believe it, no choice. So you overpay. I then want the house next door, now that owner has decreed that his house is also worth more. I guess you can say its supply and demand working together but there is an element of deviousness there IMHO. I used to go by GV. At any point in time the GV was a guide. This area goes for 10% above GV, this other area where the GV is older goes for 20% more, etc. But if agents are in effect re writing the price tag, thats below the line. But legal. One day if we built lots, it will be a buyers market, plenty to look at, lets go honey, bye.

The media are also fueling it, and this is tonights housing story. Ironically a Telescope back in 1945 was almost double the price of this property at the time.

Waterfront bach that last sold for £45 snapped up for $1.26m

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/residential/123666160/waterfront-bach-that-last-sold-for-45-snapped-up-for-126m

mattwnz

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#2619611 10-Dec-2020 18:43

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

It could happen overseas, and NZ will be affected by what happens overseas, but it can take a long time to really know how things will go, and if it bounces back. Covid is worse than ever overseas, while in NZ we are in our own little covid free bubble buying and selling houses, with nowhere to go.

Agree. GFC affected us a lot less than others, our exports seem too be going great? Retail is going great (tis there are sectors doing it tougher)

But if we can be while in NZ we are in our own little covid free bubble building houses, with nowhere to go then thats good for the local economy and employment. A building boom would add a great deal to our economy. Builders, contractors, trades teaching institutions, and the myriad of support businesses.

There aren't the builders to do this. Even those that do exist, many aren't good. The time it takes to build also takes far to long. IMO it shouldn't take 6-9 months to build a house. The slab and framing and cladding can go up in weeks. But then the amount of time to finish things takes months and months. The process is so inefficient and expensive . Then often things need redoing because of poor workmanship and people not knowing what they are doing and reading instructions. You hear of people who have built who have had so many problems, and can wait months and months to get people back to complete or fix work. It is one reason why many people prefer to buy an existing house, rather than have to deal with building.

I think that is the part of the problem with kiwibuild, in that it just takes too long, and there aren't the workers to do the work.

We missed a big opportunity with the Christchurc rebuild, not to keep those builder that came in from Ireland etc, in NZ, and getting them building homes throughout the country.

tdgeek

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#2619616 10-Dec-2020 18:59

mattwnz:

There aren't the builders to do this. Even those that do exist, many aren't good. The time it takes to build also takes far to long. IMO it shouldn't take 6-9 months to build a house. The slab and framing and cladding can go up in weeks. But then the amount of time to finish things takes months and months. The process is so inefficient and expensive . Then often things need redoing because of poor workmanship and people not knowing what they are doing and reading instructions. You hear of people who have built who have had so many problems, and can wait months and months to get people back to complete or fix work. It is one reason why many people prefer to buy an existing house, rather than have to deal with building.

I think that is the part of the problem with kiwibuild, in that it just takes too long, and there aren't the workers to do the work.

We missed a big opportunity with the Christchurc rebuild, not to keep those builder that came in from Ireland etc, in NZ, and getting them building homes throughout the country.

Yep there is all that. Ive never built. I know some that have and never again, it was more the hassle than issues, I know others that only build. If we want a building boom it wont happen without the Govt making it happen. We can bring builders in if need be, but there does need to be tidying up of the issues you mentioned. Or seek out existing quality building companies, and partner with them

deadlyllama

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#2619874 11-Dec-2020 09:54

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

But the market needs new FHBs entering the market, otherwise it runs out of people who can afford to buy houses

I agree 110%, except that feeds the problem. Make it so that FHB build their house. This adds to housing stock, Their rental is now free, rental demand reduces, might get sold, so another FHB sorted. Target buyers and send that to new builds, make new builds a no brainer. A grant as Kiwisaver does. Subsidise interest rates for new build, the buyers can pay the extra interest rate that subsidises the new build. Im sure that there is a lot that can be done to incentives new builds. I own my home I want to build now as its a great idea now, but as I'm building, I avoid the Stamp Duty that is now levied on existing sales. Then the builders are forever hiring staff, another benefit.

Do we count as FHBs if we sold our FH and are renting?

I don't mind buying a new build in principle. But ... the new subdivision nearby (Crofton Downs) has masses of covenants. $500/day fine if one of many conditions is violated e.g. your lawn isn't mown well enough. House must be 150sqm+ and match the other houses. All this for 500sqm land cheek by jowl with your neighbours. $1.2m minimum for a section and house. Covenants limit your ability to build something cheaper. And it sounds like pretty much every new subdivision is like this.

So we're getting house FOMO and will spend too much on a second hand house instead. I hate this situation but as an individual I have no power.

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tdgeek

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#2619937 11-Dec-2020 10:05

I guess you aren't a FHB now. Look at another subdivision as what you described doesn't suit your needs

deadlyllama

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#2620057 11-Dec-2020 11:58

tdgeek:

I guess you aren't a FHB now. Look at another subdivision as what you described doesn't suit your needs

Then we'd be commuting the kids to school for half an hour, or switching schools for the third time in three years (like a scene from the Inside Child Poverty doco)... now maybe that's just what you've got to do these days but I think I'm allowed to not like it. We'll get there, I'm just having a whinge, like the rest of the country.

Fred99

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#2620094 11-Dec-2020 13:30

deadlyllama:

... masses of covenants. $500/day fine if one of many conditions is violated e.g. your lawn isn't mown well enough. House must be 150sqm+ and match the other houses. All this for 500sqm land cheek by jowl with your neighbours. $1.2m minimum for a section and house. Covenants limit your ability to build something cheaper. And it sounds like pretty much every new subdivision is like this.

This kind of thing was mocked in Aus when we bought our first home. The developers "the white shoe brigade", their objective - to keep "cockroaches" out.

Now it's the norm I still hate it. Can't think of anything worse than being stuck living in a monoculture of "socio-economic equals" devoid of imagination and full of intolerance / fear that their "investment" might be "devalued" if someone nearby does something different. I think a common covenant bans mowing the lawn with your shirt off. Small minded rules from small minded people. I'd never live in such a suburb - they're horrible. "Exclusive" isn't a friendly word.

wellygary

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#2620109 11-Dec-2020 13:48

Fred99:

This kind of thing was mocked in Aus when we bought our first home. The developers "the white shoe brigade", their objective - to keep "cockroaches" out.

Now it's the norm I still hate it. Can't think of anything worse than being stuck living in a monoculture of "socio-economic equals" devoid of imagination and full of intolerance / fear that their "investment" might be "devalued" if someone nearby does something different. I think a common covenant bans mowing the lawn with your shirt off. Small minded rules from small minded people. I'd never live in such a suburb - they're horrible. "Exclusive" isn't a friendly word.

It would be interesting to see if any of these "behaviour" covenants could actually be made to stand up in a court,

I imaging that things about the actual property are fair ground,

But I think mandating you don't mow shirtless, play too much Rage against the Machine, or invite bogans round for a mynock roast :) might be seen as falling foul of the "freedom of expression" clause in the BORA- but it would take someone prepared to spend $$ to set a precedent

alasta

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#2620114 11-Dec-2020 13:59

For me covenants that prevent anti-social behaviour are very appealing. I guess it depends on your lifestyle.

Fred99

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#2620145 11-Dec-2020 14:40

alasta:

For me covenants that prevent anti-social behaviour are very appealing. I guess it depends on your lifestyle.

IMO thinking that such trivia as mowing the lawn bare-chested or painting your letterbox pink is "anti-social" is nuts. It becomes truly anti-social when people become so intolerant and fearful of the different choices of "others", they exclude society from their lives as much as possible.

tdgeek

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#2620372 12-Dec-2020 08:02

This is quite crazy

One house, 3 open home days, 400 went through, GV 870, sold 1.3M Lower Hutt.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/housing-affordability/123681448/buyers-block-street-as-400-punters-flock-to-open-home-over-three-days

Clearly people aren't baulking at the prices yet.

quickymart

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#2620374 12-Dec-2020 08:04

I would be, at those prices people's budgets become quite stretched. Mind you, just because 400 people went through an open home doesn't mean they received 400 offers.

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