Time to give electricity the flick?

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#1720401 15-Feb-2017 09:05

That Christchurch spike went from $62.29 to $480,049.00 in 5 mins. My Flick dashboard shows a jump from 16.28c to 17.84c for the half hour fortunately! Although presumably there's still some settlement processing to do before it's finalised

luckiestmanalive

54 posts

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#1720540 15-Feb-2017 11:51

robertsona:

I'll see you, and raise you Christchurch this last Monday morning:

I find the PRS prices more helpful than RTPs in these situations. The PRS price shows the prices expected to prevail for the half-hour. I also track RTPs but become concerned only if RTPs become much higher than the PRS price during a trading period and continue to be so into the next one as final prices are derived using conditions at the beginning of the trading period.

nickb800

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#1720686 15-Feb-2017 15:22

Just notified of $500,000/Mwh in chch, for 15:00, oddly an hour after the major circuit loss

kingjj

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#1721094 16-Feb-2017 11:19

Currently $194,646.07 MWh in Canterbury and been sitting there for a while. Of course Flick's App/Portal are down.

timmmay

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#1721103 16-Feb-2017 11:29

I can access the flick portal.

michaelmurfy

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#1721110 16-Feb-2017 11:34

Yeah this is the new largest I've seen...

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kingjj

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#1721114 16-Feb-2017 11:35

timmmay:

I can access the flick portal.

Was able to access again a few minutes after I posted (although it wouldn't give a current price). Was out via both mobile and fixed (different networks). Thankfully looks like the spike was short and has settled again.

voy1d

178 posts

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#1721179 16-Feb-2017 12:29

luckiestmanalive:

I find the PRS prices more helpful than RTPs in these situations. The PRS price shows the prices expected to prevail for the half-hour. I also track RTPs but become concerned only if RTPs become much higher than the PRS price during a trading period and continue to be so into the next one as final prices are derived using conditions at the beginning of the trading period.

Sort of.

PRS (and NRS) are different schedules produced on a half hour basis for the entire half hour. These have a number of assumptions inside them (for example most traders do not trade to the PRS because there is some market behaviour from difference bids which are accounted for but never observed).

RTP & RTD are real time "indicative prices" and are 5 minute solves. If there is a single 5 minute spike in a half hour period it will likely wash out, but if its a sustained elevation above NRS then it will likely stick.

RTP & RTD are good for seeing short term stuff but you should never rely on them solving through to the provisional, interim or final pricing runs.

As for the Waikato thing, I believe there was a constraint on HAM_KPO (both circuits) which caused a spring washer around the grid zone.

timmmay

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#1735274 12-Mar-2017 14:32

Flick prices are pretty static at the moment, even though EM6 (inserted top right of diagram below) is showing a fair bit of variation. $50/MWh is $0.05/kwh, so I'd expect more variation. Anyone know what's up? Am I reading things incorrectly?

voy1d

178 posts

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#1735319 12-Mar-2017 15:24

Prices crashed overnight on the back of the following;

Lowest demand since 23/01 during the overnight period
Wind generation in NZ being 150 MW above forecast (or ~5% of total generation)
Thermal commitment in the North Island (TCC & HLY5 both running due to transmission outages this week)
The price stack was sparse between $1 and $45 (essentially the supply curve)

During the day as load picks up you'll see a bit more stability in price.

timmmay

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#1735331 12-Mar-2017 15:57

Interesting. I was mostly asking why EM6 is showing a big peak but Flick is showing things pretty level.

voy1d

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#1735333 12-Mar-2017 16:01

timmmay:

Interesting. I was mostly asking why EM6 is showing a big peak but Flick is showing things pretty level.

I believe the NRSS schedule was pretty flat for most of the night, whilst the RTP / RTD prices were a bit up and down (as a result of the thin stack).

andrewNZ

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#1739976 15-Mar-2017 18:52

I like the new price meter, much better IMO.

andrewNZ

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#1739977 15-Mar-2017 18:52

I like the new price meter, much better IMO.

pogo

84 posts

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#1749296 28-Mar-2017 11:24

I've just changed over to Flick (I'm in Canterbury). Can anyone tell me how often I can expect price spikes? Do these generally happen at a certain time of day? Is it likely that they could happen overnight when things like hot water, heat pump, or perhaps an EV are charging?

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