Real estate, post level 4

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#2754629 3-Aug-2021 18:49

tdgeek:

Handle9:

One presentation of data showed that, the majority of data does not, which is what the article said. You are seeing what you want to see.

Wrong as usual. If the data I read was factually incorrect, state that.

Go and read the article again.

Batman

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#2754646 3-Aug-2021 19:06

heavenlywild: batman In Auckland.

thought so. enjoy the money!

Divhon88

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#2754850 3-Aug-2021 23:55

I know their findings are most of the time unenforceable. However, if the Human Rights Commission finds merit that human rights has been breached in NZ for neglecting our housing crisis and the gov't lack or insufficient action is tantamount for charges of Crimes against the humanity of NZ.

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/08/jacinda-ardern-dodges-questions-on-whether-housing-crisis-is-a-human-rights-crisis.html

A summon issued for the PM and Housing Minister to stand trial in the International Criminal Court tribunal I think our housing problems will be fixed at a rate faster than the post war and post quake era.

Even if she ignores the case as most of the world dictator does it will at least tarnish her plans to be the Secretary General of UN when she finishes her political stint and our status as the least corrupt, most democratic government in the world.

mudguard

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#2754874 4-Aug-2021 06:56

Divhon88:

A summon issued for the PM and Housing Minister to stand trial in the International Criminal Court tribunal I think our housing problems will be fixed at a rate faster than the post war and post quake era.

Even if she ignores the case as most of the world dictator does it will at least tarnish her plans to be the Secretary General of UN when she finishes her political stint and our status as the least corrupt, most democratic government in the world.

To be fair you could also include any prime minister in the last thirty years if that was the case.

Wonder if this thread title should change to just housing chat or something?

quickymart

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#2755303 4-Aug-2021 22:03

https://thespinoff.co.nz/society/the-side-eye/04-08-2021/the-side-eyes-two-new-zealands-locked-out/

kingdragonfly

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#2756649 8-Aug-2021 09:44

I have a bit of survivor's guilt, and I don't want to sound like I have a lack of humility.

I'm not religious but "There but for the grace of God go I"

In New Plymouth, I bought a house less than a year ago.

I looked at a history of the property valuation

2011 -- $225 K
2015 -- $325 K
2020 -- $510 K (when I bought it)
today -- $790 K (less than a year)

That's a difference of $270 K, or a 34% increase in less than a year.

Over ten years that a 350% increase, or about $57 K increase per year.

At tender, the QV was $520,000, and I paid $610,000. I thought "man, that was stupid, but at least there's a chance I can break even when I sell it."

The district council just adjusted the rates assessment at $510,000. Since I paid $610,000, I don't know if that's good or bad.

I talked to someone trying to buy a home in New Plymouth for $500,000. He said there's about 3 properties, including one where the house had its roof blown off in a suspected meth lab explosion, and another well outside town in a very bad area.

I've come to the (not very original) conclusion, if you don't own a home, you will never be able to keep with house price increases.

He an Australian citizen. He's said in Australia, he approached a bank about a mortgage. He'd be jobless in Australia; he has a job here. Even jobless they would be happy to give him a loan, at a much better rate than here in New Zealand

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#2756697 8-Aug-2021 12:14

Count your blessings?

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heavenlywild

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#2756698 8-Aug-2021 12:16

How do you get a home loan without a job in either Oz or here?

I'm curious if this is possible unless you go to a second tier lender?

Buying a Tesla? Use my Tesla referral link and we both get discounts and credits.

Divhon88

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#2756771 8-Aug-2021 14:05

Hi All

We are a family of 4, 2 kids 9 years old and a 2 years old we live in Rotorua and we are trying our best to get a house. We prefer a brand new build atleast 3 rooms, 2 toilet, 2 garage.

I care less about section size as long as its free hold and stand alone.

We are about on $150,000 household income with a combined kiwisaver of $80,000 and about $5,000 cash saving for a house.

There's a new house here for $685,000 h ttps://www.realestate.co.nz/3957468/residential/sale/16-ian-street-koutu

Just about the max of my debt threshold. I've seen its plan its a duplex build & just one garage (most likely with covenants that couldn't even build a carport) so doesn't tick the boxes.

Plan A: I have a very good friend who's in the same situation , I was thinking doing a joint co-ownership so we could theoretically have $1.2M, buy a 800sqm land 400sqm each subdivided at $500,000 then dump the $700,000 evenly to an identical house, provided a good mortgage broker can convince a lender to approve that.

Plan B: Stuff all jump the ditch to AU, earn atleast 20% more, live 30 mins away from a major metropolis like Brisbane and buy something https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-richlands-136933390 Our jobs are lockdown proof. It ticks all the boxes however its Aussie and I'll miss our world class NBN pricing and quality.

Is my plan A doable or even realistic?

Your inputs are highyl appreciated, TIA

mattwnz

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#2756775 8-Aug-2021 14:18

kingdragonfly: I have a bit of survivor's guilt, and I don't want to sound like I have a lack of humility.

I'm not religious but "There but for the grace of God go I"

In New Plymouth, I bought a house less than a year ago.

I looked at a history of the property valuation

2011 -- $225 K
2015 -- $325 K
2020 -- $510 K (when I bought it)
today -- $790 K (less than a year)

That's a difference of $270 K, or a 34% increase in less than a year.

Over ten years that a 350% increase, or about $57 K increase per year.

At tender, the QV was $520,000, and I paid $610,000. I thought "man, that was stupid, but at least there's a chance I can break even when I sell it."

The district council just adjusted the rates assessment at $510,000. Since I paid $610,000, I don't know if that's good or bad.

I talked to someone trying to buy a home in New Plymouth for $500,000. He said there's about 3 properties, including one where the house had its roof blown off in a suspected meth lab explosion, and another well outside town in a very bad area.

I've come to the (not very original) conclusion, if you don't own a home, you will never be able to keep with house price increases.

He an Australian citizen. He's said in Australia, he approached a bank about a mortgage. He'd be jobless in Australia; he has a job here. Even jobless they would be happy to give him a loan, at a much better rate than here in New Zealand

The current insane house price inflation over the last 18 months has been allowed to happen because of the record low interest rates. But once interest rates rise, unless supply remains very constrained, I can't see how prices can increase on the same levels. Also there could be some very stressed mortgage holders, when their repayments increase. The problem in NZ is you can only fix for 5 years max (one bank used to be 7 years but has just got rid of that claiming it was unpopular, although I suspect it maybe popular now or in the near future). Whereas in the US you can fix for the period of the mortgage (eg 30 years) giving people much more certainty. I don't know how some NZ house borrowers could feel that they could borrow such huge amounts of money, when they could only fix for a max of 5 years and over the term of the mortgage , interest rates could go up quite a bit. 8% is still seen as low historically, but how many people could afford that rate now if they have just borrowed 600-800k? THat is a huge amount of interest without even paying off the principle. IMO these mega mortgages some people are getting could be a problem.

Some borrowers may have borrowed too much, and we will no doubt hear sob stories in the coming year as interest rates rise, and people complaining that banks lent them these amounts. But add into this the massive inflation occurring, with everything going up in price. Council rates are going up substantially in some parts. I wouldn't be surprised if this is because house price have gone up, that they think it is an opportunity to put up rates while people feel rich with their million dollar timber shack.

Australian interest rates seem so much better than NZs, I am surprised there aren't more complaining about it. But NZ is a smaller market, and NZers seem to roll over when it comes to housing. But if NZs rates were better, we may have had house prices at even higher levels. The government seems to think the changes they have made are having an effect and slowing down house price growth, but I haven't seen too many people agreeing with them.

mattwnz

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#2756777 8-Aug-2021 14:26

Divhon88:

Hi All

We are a family of 4, 2 kids 9 years old and a 2 years old we live in Rotorua and we are trying our best to get a house. We prefer a brand new build atleast 3 rooms, 2 toilet, 2 garage.

I care less about section size as long as its free hold and stand alone.

We are about on $150,000 household income with a combined kiwisaver of $80,000 and about $5,000 cash saving for a house.

There's a new house here for $685,000 h ttps://www.realestate.co.nz/3957468/residential/sale/16-ian-street-koutu

Just about the max of my debt threshold. I've seen its plan its a duplex build & just one garage (most likely with covenants that couldn't even build a carport) so doesn't tick the boxes.

Plan A: I have a very good friend who's in the same situation , I was thinking doing a joint co-ownership so we could theoretically have $1.2M, buy a 800sqm land 400sqm each subdivided at $500,000 then dump the $700,000 evenly to an identical house, provided a good mortgage broker can convince a lender to approve that.

Plan B: Stuff all jump the ditch to AU, earn atleast 20% more, live 30 mins away from a major metropolis like Brisbane and buy something https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-richlands-136933390 Our jobs are lockdown proof. It ticks all the boxes however its Aussie and I'll miss our world class NBN pricing and quality.

Is my plan A doable or even realistic?

Your inputs are highyl appreciated, TIA

In the Wellington region, a new house of those requirement is the best part of a million. Maybe look at something that is a few years old? Maybe put some flyers in peoples letterboxes, of new built houses that you like as I have noticed quite a few people selling new builds (some multiple times) each collecting a big capital gain? But not involving agents may save quite a bit.

I was going to suggest Kiwibuild as they had some in your area. But I see they have now gone. Kiwibuild now looks like it is dead, as only 3 developments still on it for the entire country! Kiwibuild IMO may have been the last hope for some First Home Buyers.

kingdragonfly

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#2756795 8-Aug-2021 16:02

Divhon88: We are a family of 4, 2 kids 9 years old and a 2 years old we live in Rotorua and we are trying our best to get a house. We prefer a brand new build atleast 3 rooms, 2 toilet, 2 garage.

Given your income and location, I'd say you're in an ideal place and income for home ownership.

Given the downturn in tourism, I thought there be a strong downward pressure on the local Rotorua house prices and better than usual real estate for sale.

Since I work-from-home exclusively I had looked at Rotorua, as a possible location. I guess I was wrong.

You may want to think about the culture your kids would pick up in Australia.

Handle9

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#2756796 8-Aug-2021 16:15

Divhon88:
Hi All

We are a family of 4, 2 kids 9 years old and a 2 years old we live in Rotorua and we are trying our best to get a house. We prefer a brand new build atleast 3 rooms, 2 toilet, 2 garage.

I care less about section size as long as its free hold and stand alone.

We are about on $150,000 household income with a combined kiwisaver of $80,000 and about $5,000 cash saving for a house.

There's a new house here for $685,000 h ttps://www.realestate.co.nz/3957468/residential/sale/16-ian-street-koutu

Just about the max of my debt threshold. I've seen its plan its a duplex build & just one garage (most likely with covenants that couldn't even build a carport) so doesn't tick the boxes.

Plan A: I have a very good friend who's in the same situation , I was thinking doing a joint co-ownership so we could theoretically have $1.2M, buy a 800sqm land 400sqm each subdivided at $500,000 then dump the $700,000 evenly to an identical house, provided a good mortgage broker can convince a lender to approve that.

Plan B: Stuff all jump the ditch to AU, earn atleast 20% more, live 30 mins away from a major metropolis like Brisbane and buy something https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-qld-richlands-136933390 Our jobs are lockdown proof. It ticks all the boxes however its Aussie and I'll miss our world class NBN pricing and quality.

Is my plan A doable or even realistic?

Your inputs are highyl appreciated, TIA

Now's the time to pack up and get out. If you have transferable skills you'll be far better off in Australia.

GV27

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#2756806 8-Aug-2021 17:03

Handle9:

Now's the time to pack up and get out. If you have transferable skills you'll be far better off in Australia.

Agreed. If he doesn't go now, he'll regret it.

Don't just think about it in the short term - compare your end-of-career savings on an Australian Super-style scheme vs. NZ Kiwisaver, which for most businesses here is bare-minimum 3%. It wouldn't take long on Australian wages to make that a pretty attractive carrot.

tdgeek

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#2756813 8-Aug-2021 18:00

mattwnz:

The current insane house price inflation over the last 18 months has been allowed to happen because of the record low interest rates. But once interest rates rise, unless supply remains very constrained, I can't see how prices can increase on the same levels. Also there could be some very stressed mortgage holders, when their repayments increase. The problem in NZ is you can only fix for 5 years max (one bank used to be 7 years but has just got rid of that claiming it was unpopular, although I suspect it maybe popular now or in the near future). Whereas in the US you can fix for the period of the mortgage (eg 30 years) giving people much more certainty. I don't know how some NZ house borrowers could feel that they could borrow such huge amounts of money, when they could only fix for a max of 5 years and over the term of the mortgage , interest rates could go up quite a bit. 8% is still seen as low historically, but how many people could afford that rate now if they have just borrowed 600-800k? THat is a huge amount of interest without even paying off the principle. IMO these mega mortgages some people are getting could be a problem.

Some borrowers may have borrowed too much, and we will no doubt hear sob stories in the coming year as interest rates rise, and people complaining that banks lent them these amounts. But add into this the massive inflation occurring, with everything going up in price. Council rates are going up substantially in some parts. I wouldn't be surprised if this is because house price have gone up, that they think it is an opportunity to put up rates while people feel rich with their million dollar timber shack.

Australian interest rates seem so much better than NZs, I am surprised there aren't more complaining about it. But NZ is a smaller market, and NZers seem to roll over when it comes to housing. But if NZs rates were better, we may have had house prices at even higher levels. The government seems to think the changes they have made are having an effect and slowing down house price growth, but I haven't seen too many people agreeing with them.

Just to wind down your opinions

Record low interest rates, yes, agreed.

Yes, if supply (sellers not houses)

Whereas in the US you can fix for the period of the mortgage (eg 30 years) giving people much more certainty. Have you been there? Nice big houses, with 4 foot grass, foreclosed. You don't see that here. People get a house, have issues and walk away.

Why would any bank fix for yonks? Thats unrealistic. Pay todays prices, pay back at todays prices

Massive inflation? Its 3+ % thats not massive. Try 15% per annum.

sob stories in the coming year as interest rates rise Probably but they won't increase 4% per year, it will be slow. You buy high, you take the risk, unless you factor in that record low interest rates wont last, its fine

Australian interest rates seem so much better than NZs, is 2.69% too much????

The government seems to think the changes they have made are having an effect and slowing down house price growth, but I haven't seen too many people agreeing with them. If you think that any Govt changes after two decades of ignoring housing will matter, you are in dreamland. Analogies. Nice car or house, ignore it for 20 years, then sort it out, no, its too late.

Tell me what measures undertaken NOW, will restore house prices and affordability in 12 months. I can answer that, ZERO

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