
Using a pinless moisture meter (brilliant invention!), the area within the red circle reads alarm-level moisture, and the area within the yellow one around 70%, consistent with the water coming in via a corner of the frame, running down the stud, and collecting at the bottom:

The meter actually provides a pretty good heat map of where the problem is, you can see the moisture levels rising from 15%-odd everywhere else on that wall on a slow curve until it alarms at 90+%.
The outside is this:

Talked to a glazier about the seal and they said the seal is to hold the glass in, not keep water out. Water can get in and then out through the weep hole, but it's obviously not doing that despite there being no obstructions anywhere that I can detect.
Any ideas? Specifically ones that involve the least amount of required destruction of window or wall to implement...