2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2605815 18-Nov-2020 08:02

Fred99:

The trial involved 30,000 people in the US with half being given two doses of the vaccine, four weeks apart. The rest had dummy injections.

The analysis was based on the first 95 to develop Covid-19 symptoms.

Only five of the Covid cases were in people given the vaccine and 90 were in those given the dummy treatment. The company says the vaccine is protecting 94.5 percent of people.

I was listening to an expert from one of the companies (I forget which one) a few weeks ago talking about the trials.It was interesting to hear them talk about one of the big problems they have which is probably going to exist with all the trials, and that is people are actually working out if they have had the placebo or not.

There are minor to mild side effects in all the current big pharma vaccines ranging from muscle soreness to mild fever and pains that are occurring in most people who are receiving the vaccine. As a result people involved in the trial can have a fairly good idea if they have received the vaccine or placebo, and the concern is that the behaviors of these two groups then differ with placebo groups taking greater precautions in their day to day life. It seems pretty clear now that the vaccines do work, but establishing actual efficiency rates may take a lot more work still.

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#2605827 18-Nov-2020 08:39

sbiddle: ...

I was listening to an expert from one of the companies (I forget which one) a few weeks ago talking about the trials.It was interesting to hear them talk about one of the big problems they have which is probably going to exist with all the trials, and that is people are actually working out if they have had the placebo or not.

There are minor to mild side effects in all the current big pharma vaccines ranging from muscle soreness to mild fever and pains that are occurring in most people who are receiving the vaccine. As a result people involved in the trial can have a fairly good idea if they have received the vaccine or placebo, and the concern is that the behaviors of these two groups then differ with placebo groups taking greater precautions in their day to day life. It seems pretty clear now that the vaccines do work, but establishing actual efficiency rates may take a lot more work still.

I guess this is where challenge trials such as being done by the Oxford group come in to play. Of course they need to be very confident about the efficacy of the vaccine first, and even then can probably only be used with low risk groups.

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#2605833 18-Nov-2020 08:50

sbiddle:
Fred99:

The trial involved 30,000 people in the US with half being given two doses of the vaccine, four weeks apart. The rest had dummy injections.

The analysis was based on the first 95 to develop Covid-19 symptoms.

Only five of the Covid cases were in people given the vaccine and 90 were in those given the dummy treatment. The company says the vaccine is protecting 94.5 percent of people.

I was listening to an expert from one of the companies (I forget which one) a few weeks ago talking about the trials.It was interesting to hear them talk about one of the big problems they have which is probably going to exist with all the trials, and that is people are actually working out if they have had the placebo or not.

There are minor to mild side effects in all the current big pharma vaccines ranging from muscle soreness to mild fever and pains that are occurring in most people who are receiving the vaccine. As a result people involved in the trial can have a fairly good idea if they have received the vaccine or placebo, and the concern is that the behaviors of these two groups then differ with placebo groups taking greater precautions in their day to day life. It seems pretty clear now that the vaccines do work, but establishing actual efficiency rates may take a lot more work still.

That's why I asked how they come up with the 95%.

If they exposed people to the live virus then yup 95%. If they *didn't how do you come up with 95%

*I didn't think they'd risk lawsuits in the states

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#2605864 18-Nov-2020 09:52

@Batman: ...

That's why I asked how they come up with the 95%.

If they exposed people to the live virus then yup 95%. If they *didn't how do you come up with 95%

*I didn't think they'd risk lawsuits in the states

It's pretty well explained in the various articles. Not hard to work out.

30,000 people living in areas with the virus raging in the wild, half inoculated, half not.

95 get infected during the study period

5 of the infected were inoculated, hence infection rate = 5/15,000
90 of the infected not inoculated, hence infection rate = 90/15,000

So the infection rate for people not inoculated was ~18x that of those who were inoculated. Hence the 94.5% effectiveness claim!

Clearly the preliminary evidence does point good effectiveness of the vaccine but the margin of error on a result based on just 5 (or even 90) infected people is large, to put it mildly. Plus all sorts of factors could have impacted those numbers. 5/15,000 = 0.033% so good potential for edge effects.

Even in the case of those not inoculated, only 0.6% were infected over the course of the study period (sorry, do not recall how long that was). But given that the current infection rate in the US is now ~0.05% per day, 0.6% is not a big number.

Plus the issues mentioned by Fred99 and sbiddle re potential (likely?) differing behaviours between the two groups, given that most of those inoculated will be aware that they got the vaccine, not the placebo.

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#2605870 18-Nov-2020 10:03

DS248:

Plus the issues mentioned by Fred99 and sbiddle re potential (likely?) differing behaviours between the two groups, given that most of those inoculated will be aware that they got the vaccine, not the placebo.

One way around that of course ... load the placebo so it has its own share of mild side effects (NOT 😁)

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#2605888 18-Nov-2020 10:24

It won't be long before someone figured out that if you take placebo the chances of getting covid is 90/15,000! (0.6%)
/s

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#2605901 18-Nov-2020 10:52

DS248: ...

5 of the infected were inoculated, hence infection rate = 5/15,000 ...

Probably need a ethnicity / socioeconomic / work / locality / local infection rate / ... / ... profile on those (the 5 and the 15,000) to interpret that result.

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#2605905 18-Nov-2020 11:00

One way around gathering limits!

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/sydney-schoolboys-attempt-to-bypass-coronavirus-restrictions-with-fake-wedding-c-1598328

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#2605908 18-Nov-2020 11:06

Scientific study indicates mouthwash can kill coronavirus within 30 seconds ... of being exposed to it in a lab.

Might be a stretch extrapolating this to the real world, especially after initial infection with the virus already incubating in the body!

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-54971650

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#2605912 18-Nov-2020 11:18

DS248:

Scientific study indicates mouthwash can kill coronavirus within 30 seconds ... of being exposed to it in a lab.

Might be a stretch extrapolating this to the real world, especially after initial infection with the virus already incubating in the body!

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-54971650

Can see it now. People carrying mouthwash along with their small bottles of sanitiser. Hands, swig, swallow (vs spit). I R SAFE! NO MASK FO ME!

At least it's not commercial grade disinfectant.

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#2605917 18-Nov-2020 11:34

Oblivian:

DS248:

Scientific study indicates mouthwash can kill coronavirus within 30 seconds ... of being exposed to it in a lab.

Might be a stretch extrapolating this to the real world, especially after initial infection with the virus already incubating in the body!

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-54971650

Can see it now. People carrying mouthwash along with their small bottles of sanitiser. Hands, swig, swallow (vs spit). I R SAFE! NO MASK FO ME!

At least it's not commercial grade disinfectant.

Shame most of them won't have actually read the study to find out its likely a way to reduce the chance of people passing it on to others, not to stop you catching it.....

"A clinical trial will look at whether it helps to reduce levels of the virus in the saliva of Covid-19 patients at the hospital in Cardiff, with results expected early next year."

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#2605921 18-Nov-2020 11:55

DS248:

Scientific study indicates mouthwash can kill coronavirus within 30 seconds ... of being exposed to it in a lab.

Might be a stretch extrapolating this to the real world, especially after initial infection with the virus already incubating in the body!

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-wales-54971650

Now if only humans can breathe mouthwash instead of oxygen and nitrogen ...

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#2605974 18-Nov-2020 13:35

Woke up with symptoms this morning (felt the onset of a sore throat last night). Went and had a test this morning, in and out in 10 minutes and the people were lovely.

The test itself was very cruisy, I'd struggle to even describe it as mild discomfort. In for a few seconds, made my eyes water a little, then out. Not the sort of thing I'd do for fun but definitely no biggie.

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#2606057 18-Nov-2020 14:20

antonknee:

Woke up with symptoms this morning (felt the onset of a sore throat last night). Went and had a test this morning, in and out in 10 minutes and the people were lovely.

The test itself was very cruisy, I'd struggle to even describe it as mild discomfort. In for a few seconds, made my eyes water a little, then out. Not the sort of thing I'd do for fun but definitely no biggie.

Having had to do two Covid tests for work it's not too bad but definitely not something I'd want to be doing on a regular basis as most of the "front line staff" will be doing. They have my sympathy.

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#2606167 18-Nov-2020 15:03

I'd happily do the test every day. It's not painful.

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