MadEngineer: WiGLE: Wireless Network Mapping says fake news

 

Damn that is still going. Wow.

tdgeek:

 

WHO says this

 

"The agency also said there's no evidence vaccinated people cannot still spread the virus."

 

Thats potentially quite grim. Does this mean after vaccination, that you can still catch it, you will be protected, but possibly you can still spread it? 

 

Let's get a dose of reality here.

Once a person gets vaccinated, the virus gets wiped out by their pre-prepared immune system before it can make them ill. I.e. they don't get *lots* of viruses being made in their body, because if they did, they would get ill. So, although they may continue shedding viruses after an infection, it will be short-lived and won't be the huge numbers that an unvaccinated person would shed. Being with a vaccinated person who has been infected will be about the same risk as being in a room full of people, one of whom might be infected.

What's more, if enough people are vaccinated, the R0 of the virus will go well below 1, and any outbreaks will wither away, instead of spreading exponentially.

So it won't be critical to exclude people who might be infected.

I expect that (assuming there's an acceptable way of proving that you have actually been vaccinated), people who *have* been vaccinated will be able to travel with shorter (or no) quarantine stays.Given block-chains and digital signatures and the Interweb and so on, there must surely be some way of incontrovertibly saying that *this* person received *this* dose of vaccine.

"New Covid variant linked to higher viral load in the blood"

 

The hypothesis that the fast-spreading UK variant of the Covid-19 virus has a transmission advantage has been bolstered by an analysis that suggests it is linked to higher loads of the virus in the blood.

 

The variant, named B117, was discovered during an investigation into why coronavirus cases in Kent continued to rise during the November lockdown. Scientists found it continued to spread during the restrictions while older variants declined.

 

Dr Michael Kidd, of the PHE Public Health Laboratory in Birmingham, and his team analysed a total of 641 samples based on tests from symptomatic patients and found evidence of B117 among other variants. About 35% of patients infected by B117 had high levels of the virus in their samples, compared with 10% of patients without the variant, they said in their still-to-be-peer reviewed study.

 

A plethora of factors could explain why it is more transmissible. If the variant is more infectious, then fewer virus particles are needed in the host to pass the pathogen on. The virus might also replicate faster in the airways, or make people infectious for longer, making them more likely to transmit the virus.

 

“Exactly how it [the variant] reaches a high viral load is another big question,” said Kidd, adding that laboratory-based confirmation is required to understand the biological basis of the transmission advantage.

 

New NSW cluster.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/nsw/nsw-records-18-local-covid-19-cases-including-six-linked-to-new-croydon-cluster-20201230-p56qt8.html 

Their New years is looking pretty grim. Assuming it's actually policed (max5 ppl)

And unfortunately 2 month streak of Victoria after their hard work is over.

frankv:

 

Let's get a dose of reality here.

 

Once a person gets vaccinated, the virus gets wiped out by their pre-prepared immune system before it can make them ill. I.e. they don't get *lots* of viruses being made in their body, because if they did, they would get ill. So, although they may continue shedding viruses after an infection, it will be short-lived and won't be the huge numbers that an unvaccinated person would shed. Being with a vaccinated person who has been infected will be about the same risk as being in a room full of people, one of whom might be infected.

 

What's more, if enough people are vaccinated, the R0 of the virus will go well below 1, and any outbreaks will wither away, instead of spreading exponentially.

 

So it won't be critical to exclude people who might be infected.

 

I expect that (assuming there's an acceptable way of proving that you have actually been vaccinated), people who *have* been vaccinated will be able to travel with shorter (or no) quarantine stays.Given block-chains and digital signatures and the Interweb and so on, there must surely be some way of incontrovertibly saying that *this* person received *this* dose of vaccine.

 

 

 

Do you have a link to the paper that proves there won't be shedding or the shedding is no big deal? How long does vaccination last? Does protection stay at 100% or does it start to decline from day one? Just like spraying weeds with the same herbicide over and over, will the virus stay the same or will it develope resistance? Given the poverty that exists on Earth, the level of third world countries, and the unknown number who will avoid the vaccine, and the ease of global travel, the only real way to eradicate it, is to vaccinate all 7 billion of us, that wont happen. What about the next variant? Or new virus. The problem with Earth is that we take everything over so the distance between animal carriers and ourselves is always diminishing. SARS existed and now its apparently gone, but Covid-19 is nCov-SARS2 or some thing similar, so I assume Covid-19 came from SARS?

SARS, MERS etc etc etc, it makes you wonder what is next. SARS was apparently bad, but it came and went. Covid-19 is everywhere

Food for thought.

tdgeek:

 

Do you have a link to the paper that proves there won't be shedding or the shedding is no big deal? How long does vaccination last? Does protection stay at 100% or does it start to decline from day one? Just like spraying weeds with the same herbicide over and over, will the virus stay the same or will it develope resistance? Given the poverty that exists on Earth, the level of third world countries, and the unknown number who will avoid the vaccine, and the ease of global travel, the only real way to eradicate it, is to vaccinate all 7 billion of us, that wont happen. What about the next variant? Or new virus. The problem with Earth is that we take everything over so the distance between animal carriers and ourselves is always diminishing. SARS existed and now its apparently gone, but Covid-19 is nCov-SARS2 or some thing similar, so I assume Covid-19 came from SARS?

 

SARS, MERS etc etc etc, it makes you wonder what is next. SARS was apparently bad, but it came and went. Covid-19 is everywhere

 

Food for thought.

 

IIRC with SARS you become infectious nearly a week after you get symptoms

with Covid you become infectious 1-2 days before you get symptoms, or worse, some people have no symptoms

big difference as to why one came and went and the other becomes a pandemic that keeps growing

richms: 

MadEngineer: WiGLE: Wireless Network Mapping says fake news 

 

Damn that is still going. Wow. 

Still online but I don't think it's going. The SSID's it shows for may place are from back when I was on Vodafone. I moved from there to Spark for about 3 years and have moved to 2degrees well over a year ago. My SSID's were renamed with the move to Spark and expanded with the move to 2degrees to include a guest networkcalled "5G Coronavirus Activator". So, it's (at least) almost 5 years out of date from what I can see.

frankv:

 

tdgeek:

 

WHO says this

 

"The agency also said there's no evidence vaccinated people cannot still spread the virus."

 

Thats potentially quite grim. Does this mean after vaccination, that you can still catch it, you will be protected, but possibly you can still spread it? 

 

 

Let's get a dose of reality here.

 

Once a person gets vaccinated, the virus gets wiped out by their pre-prepared immune system before it can make them ill. I.e. they don't get *lots* of viruses being made in their body, because if they did, they would get ill. So, although they may continue shedding viruses after an infection, it will be short-lived and won't be the huge numbers that an unvaccinated person would shed. Being with a vaccinated person who has been infected will be about the same risk as being in a room full of people, one of whom might be infected.

 

What's more, if enough people are vaccinated, the R0 of the virus will go well below 1, and any outbreaks will wither away, instead of spreading exponentially.

 

This simply doesn't stack up with the many papers I've read on the multiple vaccines. All the resources on at least the top few vaccines so far went into establishing efficacy of the vaccines on building antibodies, not whether they were any good at actually interrupting transmission.

It could well be the case that they do work well when it comes to preventing shedding of the virus and that they do mimimise (or hopefully even eliminate) transmission, but that really is an unknown right now.

The problem for vaccine producers is that there are pros and cons to both - you may be able to make a Covid vaccine for example that does eliminate transmission, but doesn't offer the same level of protection against the virus. We only need to look at polio vaccines as an example where IPV is now the most common and does a much better job of OPV at protecting the person, but IPV does not prevent against transmission whereas the OPV vaccine does.

Hopefully we will know pretty quickly how effective the current vaccines are, and I'm sure there will be a lot of interest as well as to how well mRNA vaccines might prevent transmission compared to other more traditional vaccines.

Yes. There are a lot of unknowns. The general feel in the media is that the vaccine will tidy it all up. Not only are there the unknowns, but you cant vaccinate 7.9 billion very quickly. 2020 being over, thank goodness for that, won't happen. Mid year we may see the lay of the land 

tdgeek:

 

Yes. There are a lot of unknowns. The general feel in the media is that the vaccine will tidy it all up. Not only are there the unknowns, but you cant vaccinate 7.9 billion very quickly. 2020 being over, thank goodness for that, won't happen. Mid year we may see the lay of the land 

 

I'm still pretty confident we will see things start to recover pretty quickly - at least in Western countries where vaccines are readily available. Before NZ even starts it's vaccination program in the 2nd half of the year I think we'll see life returning to some sort of normality across much of the world. The big question then is just whether a potential ~10 month vaccine rollout in NZ from ~July 2021 to ~April 2022 really is sustainable or whether we're going to need to try and accelerate that significantly, because when normality exists elsewhere is when NZ being closed up is really going to start impacting us.

sbiddle:

 

tdgeek:

 

Yes. There are a lot of unknowns. The general feel in the media is that the vaccine will tidy it all up. Not only are there the unknowns, but you cant vaccinate 7.9 billion very quickly. 2020 being over, thank goodness for that, won't happen. Mid year we may see the lay of the land 

 

 

I'm still pretty confident we will see things start to recover pretty quickly - at least in Western countries where vaccines are readily available. Before NZ even starts it's vaccination program in the 2nd half of the year I think we'll see life returning to some sort of normality across much of the world. The big question then is just whether a potential ~10 month vaccine rollout in NZ from ~July 2021 to ~April 2022 really is sustainable or whether we're going to need to try and accelerate that significantly, because when normality exists elsewhere is when NZ being closed up is really going to start impacting us.

 

10 month is ridiculous. UK says (ok, just says) they will have the virus under control in Spring due to vaccination, which is probably around April here, yet we haven't started a rollout. UK will have 100 million doses of Astrazeneca, we just need 10. yet some may be waiting till April 2022? Crazy. Yes, its good that right now, we are living normal lives, but as you imply, being able to hold a big party at home or go to a rugby stadium is not the same as living a normal national economic life, especially for heavily impacted sectors.

tdgeek:

 

UK will have 100 million doses of Astrazeneca, we just need 10. yet some may be waiting till April 2022?

 

There are still plenty of unknowns around the AstraZeneca vaccine though. It's pretty easy to argue UK has given approval for it simply because they have no other choice.

Yes we know it works, but how effective it truly is might not be known for some time. They're also only planning to give initial doses of this to there is more to go around, and it could be up to 4 months before people get their 2nd shot.

41 year old politician in US with no underlying problems succumbs

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/30/luke-letlow-us-congressman-elect-dies-of-covid-aged-41

more on community transmission in Victoria as first mentioned yesterday

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-victoria-has-recorded-three-new-cases-in-community/EIMB5PUPDRDDIOXXHK4BXT5WLE/