2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2628374 31-Dec-2020 10:03

I wonder if anyone has funded public service announcements featuring members of the New Zealand Māori rugby league team or Māori All Blacks .

New York Times: How to Reassure Black Americans That the Vaccine Is Safe

After centuries of mistreatment, many African-Americans are wary of the Covid-19 shot. A public health campaign could help rebuild trust.

...we find ourselves with a complex problem: The Black communities most at risk in this pandemic are the least likely to take a potentially lifesaving vaccine when it becomes available to them.

We and our fellow Black health care workers have an important role to play in encouraging Black patients to get vaccinated. ...

...[Organizations] should collaborate with the country’s most influential Black Americans, along with community organizers and Black health care workers, to make clear that the vaccines are our only way out of this pandemic....

kingdragonfly

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#2628378 31-Dec-2020 10:12

Batman: 41 year old politician in US with no underlying problems succumbs

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/30/luke-letlow-us-congressman-elect-dies-of-covid-aged-41

The white Republican congressman only occasionally wore a mask when campaigning.

He is one of more than 7,000 people in Louisiana who have died from COVID-19 since March.

Batman

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#2628429 31-Dec-2020 11:46

the USA should have really solid data on death rates with such solid numbers ... i searched world info meter and it says the death rate is 1.75 %

anyone knows if anywhere has a more refined statistics?

wondering if there are more breakdowns, exclusion of reinfections etc etc

not about USA i'm just after more solid Covid death / survival rates / any other data, if we know more after 1 year of this thing

tdgeek

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#2628494 31-Dec-2020 12:16

Batman:

the USA should have really solid data on death rates with such solid numbers ... i searched world info meter and it says the death rate is 1.75 %

anyone knows if anywhere has a more refined statistics?

wondering if there are more breakdowns, exclusion of reinfections etc etc

not about USA i'm just after more solid Covid death / survival rates / any other data, if we know more after 1 year of this thing

Garbage in, garbage out, I don't know where you would find any accurate data, either due to covering it up, or not having a clue how to gather and manage it. You'd need to pick a high population country to get better stats, such as USA, UK, Russia, China, India, good luck with that...

tdgeek

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#2628501 31-Dec-2020 12:22

If the death rate is 1.75%, what would it be if you excluded the elderly and with health conditions. As they are also at high risk if they got the flu, a cold, an infection, so Covid deaths from that demographic is upping the stats. If you looked at the young to say age 60, avoiding any other health issues, thats a real stat. Compare that to colds, flu, chest infections etc. Then you may see a death rate of 0.7% and for the 60+ etc maybe 4% and with health issue 7% for example. Its like if you had a country with a lower level of elderly they would look quite good, even if the stats were below average.

Sidestep

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#2628584 31-Dec-2020 15:09

tdgeek:

If the death rate is 1.75%, what would it be if you excluded the elderly and with health conditions. As they are also at high risk if they got the flu, a cold, an infection, so Covid deaths from that demographic is upping the stats. If you looked at the young to say age 60, avoiding any other health issues, thats a real stat. Compare that to colds, flu, chest infections etc. Then you may see a death rate of 0.7% and for the 60+ etc maybe 4% and with health issue 7% for example. Its like if you had a country with a lower level of elderly they would look quite good, even if the stats were below average.

If you exclude the elderly and those with health conditions very few people actually die.
Here are Canada's November stats on comorbidities.

What's not mentioned is that Covid is not only ageist but racist, and discriminates by suburb and income level.

The best protection from Covid in the city I'm in is to be white, middle class and live in a residential community with a median household income before taxes over $120K
Communities with income below $90K - and not coincidentally the highest proportion of people who identify as visible minorities compared to the overall population - are also the areas worst hit by Covid, up to 10 times the city average.

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#2628594 31-Dec-2020 15:29

I agree, but thats an indictment on a nations healthcare? The same would apply if we had a bad flu problem, those same demographics suffer, even though there is more than adequate healthcare, its everyone getting that healthcare that is a core problem in some countries. Notwithstanding political calls to brush it aside if it will cost money/jobs/GDP

Its a pity that despite what we try to change, the "isms" are there in force, to the detriment of many

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#2628600 31-Dec-2020 16:01

sbiddle:

This simply doesn't stack up with the many papers I've read on the multiple vaccines. All the resources on at least the top few vaccines so far went into establishing efficacy of the vaccines on building antibodies, not whether they were any good at actually interrupting transmission.

It could well be the case that they do work well when it comes to preventing shedding of the virus and that they do mimimise (or hopefully even eliminate) transmission, but that really is an unknown right now.

My assertion is that a vaccine that protects the individual inevitably also reduces the number of viruses that that person sheds. Because it kills off (via the immune system) enough of the viruses that the individual doesn't become ill. So there are far fewer viruses in the person's lungs to expel and the viral load picked up by other people is lower, and they are less likely to become infected.

Whilst it won't *always* prevent transmission, it will reduce the probability of passing on an infection by orders of magnitude, because (a) far less viruses are shed per hour, and (b) the person is infectious for less time.

Of course, the change in perceived risk will change people's behaviour, so in a world where many people are vaccinated, mask wearing and social distancing will reduce.

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#2628601 31-Dec-2020 16:06

sbiddle:

life returning to some sort of normality across much of the world.

There will be no return to the 2019 normality. It will be a new normality, which hopefully will include an increased awareness of likelihood and consequences of pandemics, and planning & preparation for the next one.

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#2628602 31-Dec-2020 16:10

sbiddle:

There are still plenty of unknowns around the AstraZeneca vaccine though. It's pretty easy to argue UK has given approval for it simply because they have no other choice.

I agree. Their ineffective lockdowns and consequent inability to eliminate covid19 means they have little choice but to grab at the AstraZeneca straw. I look at it as a 60 million strong trial, and I'm glad that NZ can wait for it to finish.

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#2628604 31-Dec-2020 16:15

kingdragonfly: I wonder if anyone has funded public service announcements featuring members of the New Zealand Māori rugby league team or Māori All Blacks .

New York Times: How to Reassure Black Americans That the Vaccine Is Safe

After centuries of mistreatment, many African-Americans are wary of the Covid-19 shot. A public health campaign could help rebuild trust.

...we find ourselves with a complex problem: The Black communities most at risk in this pandemic are the least likely to take a potentially lifesaving vaccine when it becomes available to them.

Conversely, a push to vaccinate Black Americans could be seen as testing out the vaccine on the Black community. So whether they vaccinate or not, the poor and Black once again become cannon fodder, just like Korea and Vietnam.

tdgeek

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#2628606 31-Dec-2020 16:23

frankv:

sbiddle:

life returning to some sort of normality across much of the world.

There will be no return to the 2019 normality. It will be a new normality, which hopefully will include an increased awareness of likelihood and consequences of pandemics, and planning & preparation for the next one.

One would hope so. We did well, can learn to do better, others can learn to do something today, not next month

Back to the transmission of vaccinated people. What your saying, means that we all get vaccinated, but lockdown can happen, bubbles won't happen, quarantine free travel wont happen, because of the vaccine. Vaccines will reduce deaths, but everything else will stay as it is now, UNTIL its eradicated eventually, due to the vaccine. US started vaccinating, its going poorly, UK has started they says its resolved by Spring (Say April 2021), NZ starts well into 2021. The year to remember and try to forget of 2020 will continue in 2021 as I see it.

frankv

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#2628609 31-Dec-2020 16:30

Batman:

the USA should have really solid data on death rates with such solid numbers ... i searched world info meter and it says the death rate is 1.75 %

anyone knows if anywhere has a more refined statistics?

wondering if there are more breakdowns, exclusion of reinfections etc etc

not about USA i'm just after more solid Covid death / survival rates / any other data, if we know more after 1 year of this thing

The USA is such a big place that a single number is quite meaningless. Alaska and Hawaii have had little covid. Most States' health systems have coped adequately. The 1.75% figure includes the 7% death rate in New Jersey & New York early on, when their health systems were overwhelmed. Worldometer breaks down the USA stats by State and States by counties.

There has been a marked reduction in the death rate over the year due to better medical treatment being learned (e.g. avoiding forced respiration) and perhaps earlier diagnosis. Back when the first wave swept northern Italy, the death rate was about 1%, or 10% if no ICU beds were available. Now, I think it's about half that.

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#2628612 31-Dec-2020 16:53

tdgeek:

Back to the transmission of vaccinated people. What your saying, means that we all get vaccinated, but lockdown can happen, bubbles won't happen, quarantine free travel wont happen, because of the vaccine. Vaccines will reduce deaths, but everything else will stay as it is now, UNTIL its eradicated eventually, due to the vaccine. US started vaccinating, its going poorly, UK has started they says its resolved by Spring (Say April 2021), NZ starts well into 2021. The year to remember and try to forget of 2020 will continue in 2021 as I see it.

No, I'm saying the opposite.

Widespread vaccination will reduce the R0 to well below 1. So there would be no exponential growth in cases as we saw in March. If someone infected arrives in the country, the disease won't spread like wildfire -- it will just die out after a handful (if that) of people are infected. So there would be no threat of overloaded health systems or lack of PPE or large scale deaths or anything else, and consequently it's manageable without any need for lockdown.

I imagine that we could welcome visitors from the UK and USA *if* they have acceptable proof of vaccination. And/or require all visitors without adequate proof to be vaccinated on arrival. The 2-shot vaccination unfortunately makes that second option complicated to manage, and the difficulty of validating proof makes the former difficult for some countries.

I'm wondering if a vaccinated person poses any more or less risk than someone who has gone through our quite imperfect MIQ. If they're *less* risk, then we could potentially open borders to vaccinated people immediately.

tdgeek

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#2628614 31-Dec-2020 17:06

frankv:

No, I'm saying the opposite.

Widespread vaccination will reduce the R0 to well below 1. So there would be no exponential growth in cases as we saw in March. If someone infected arrives in the country, the disease won't spread like wildfire -- it will just die out after a handful (if that) of people are infected. So there would be no threat of overloaded health systems or lack of PPE or large scale deaths or anything else, and consequently it's manageable without any need for lockdown.

I imagine that we could welcome visitors from the UK and USA *if* they have acceptable proof of vaccination. And/or require all visitors without adequate proof to be vaccinated on arrival. The 2-shot vaccination unfortunately makes that second option complicated to manage, and the difficulty of validating proof makes the former difficult for some countries.

I'm wondering if a vaccinated person poses any more or less risk than someone who has gone through our quite imperfect MIQ. If they're *less* risk, then we could potentially open borders to vaccinated people immediately.

How long does vaccination of the America's, Europe, Asia take? That's my issue. yes, when everyone is vaccinated, it will dry out. If we accept vaccinated travellers into NZ do they quarantine or not? Yes, if we havent finished ours, what will be very slow vaccination, starts mid 2021 I hear. Until we find out that shedding doesnt happen, our lack of a vaccine would require MIQ. Or we accept the risk and wear masks I guess

Our MIQ is not an issue. Its excellent. It can be improved by treating it like a prison, but its a hotel not a prison. Thats why its not perfect, it could never be. But if our vaccination is slow, and vaccinated travellers enter with no quarantine thats fine by me. Shedding will be low... so its a low risk, Im ok with that, will others be?. The purpose of bringing 80,000 people home was to avoid risk, and the incidents divided by 80,000 is pretty low. How low is it if Queenstown and Britomart is full of overseas vaccinated tourists? pretty much risk free? If Kiwi's were all vaccinnated (apart from anti vaxxers) well it wont matter what the risk is as there is no one that can catch it. My issue is this is a long way off in NZ

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