2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Ultimate Geek

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#2630728 5-Jan-2021 13:53

tdgeek:

not so grey for the drug designers. the dose size, whether its one or two, etc etc etc isn't a guess. Is it 100% known and documented? No. For the many weeks these vaccines have been discussed, new ones are created, its has built towards active vaccinations. Now its ok to dilute the dosage as a worthwhile tradeoff. Ok.

Given that as you say no one knows everything yet, so we cant make the correct decision. Why risk diluting the dose? It may well be that the full dose is not enough, so we make it worse by guessing that its ok to halve it. Do you design something and test it, then dilute it? As I said its like most lockdowns. If its called a lockdown, thats good enough, but as we know, the diluted lockdowns many countries had did more harm than good

I'm a research engineer. I design awesome stuff and then make it deliberately crappier to meet some arbitrary specification for a living.

The tradeoff that is being discussed is (in essence) do we vaccinate 1 million people to a 0.95 effectiveness, or do we vaccinate 2 million people to a 0.9 effectiveness to buy time. That may be done by cutting the dose OR just lengthening the time between doses.

The input data required to make that call even semi-competently is enormous, but it can be done.

freitasm

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#2630729 5-Jan-2021 13:54

Press release:

Moderna, Inc. (Nasdaq: MRNA), a biotechnology company pioneering messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines, today announced that Israel’s Ministry of Health (MOH) has given authorization to import the COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna in Israel.

“Today’s authorization is a landmark moment in our company’s history and in the global fight against COVID-19,” said Stéphane Bancel, Chief Executive Officer of Moderna. “This is the third regulatory authorization for the COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna, and its first outside of North America. I want to thank the Ministry of Health of Israel for their efforts, as their team have worked tirelessly alongside ours to ensure a timely authorization of this vaccine. We hope to continue to see authorizations in additional markets in the coming days, weeks and months.”

The MOH has secured 6 million doses of the COVID-19 Vaccine Moderna. Planned deliveries reflect today’s authorization to supply the vaccine in Israel, and first deliveries are expected to begin shortly.

Israel is the third country for which Moderna has received authorization for its COVID-19 vaccine, following the United States on December 18, 2020 and Canada on December 23, 2020. Additional authorizations are currently under review in the European Union, Singapore, Switzerland and the United Kingdom.

tdgeek

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#2630750 5-Jan-2021 14:17

mkissin:

The tradeoff that is being discussed is (in essence) do we vaccinate 1 million people to a 0.95 effectiveness, or do we vaccinate 2 million people to a 0.9 effectiveness to buy time. That may be done by cutting the dose OR just lengthening the time between doses.

The input data required to make that call even semi-competently is enormous, but it can be done.

"or do we vaccinate 2 million people to a 0.9" The articles posted here say they have no evidence as to the effectiveness of a half dose. Fauci believes its not a good idea better to be more efficient and have full doses. But what does he know.

mkissin

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Ultimate Geek

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#2630756 5-Jan-2021 14:56

tdgeek:

"or do we vaccinate 2 million people to a 0.9" The articles posted here say they have no evidence as to the effectiveness of a half dose. Fauci believes its not a good idea better to be more efficient and have full doses. But what does he know.

No evidence doesn't equate to "it does nothing" it just represents a risk.

And as I said, like any decision with significant risks/unknowns, there will be high level disagreement. That's normal and healthy.

tdgeek

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#2630758 5-Jan-2021 15:07

mkissin:

No evidence doesn't equate to "it does nothing" it just represents a risk.

And as I said, like any decision with significant risks/unknowns, there will be high level disagreement. That's normal and healthy.

Yes, acceptable risk, thats the issue. Part of the issue here is that the logistics are causing poor distribution and vaccination levels. I'm not sure how a low dose for more people will help that. This virus is a year old, and we are starting the year off with 2021 year of the vaccine, but again like most of 2020 its compromise.

Time will tell

mkissin

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Ultimate Geek

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#2630759 5-Jan-2021 15:18

tdgeek:

Yes, acceptable risk, thats the issue. Part of the issue here is that the logistics are causing poor distribution and vaccination levels. I'm not sure how a low dose for more people will help that. This virus is a year old, and we are starting the year off with 2021 year of the vaccine, but again like most of 2020 its compromise.

Time will tell

It helps by getting more people at least some protection. Just like an imperfect mask is better than no mask. And a low dose isn't the only option, stretching the time between the two doses is also being looked at. In the end, they may decide that neither is acceptable, and they'll stick to the recommended dose regime, requiring lockdown to last longer. In the winter. With Brexit upon them.

wellygary

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#2630761 5-Jan-2021 15:28

tdgeek:

Yes, acceptable risk, thats the issue. Part of the issue here is that the logistics are causing poor distribution and vaccination levels. I'm not sure how a low dose for more people will help that. This virus is a year old, and we are starting the year off with 2021 year of the vaccine, but again like most of 2020 its compromise.

Time will tell

Once an effective vaccine was developed, distribution was always going to be next weak link..... it is compounded by the "super cold" requirements of the PBioNTech vaccine, but there are workable solutions..

The biggest problem is simply that Health systems are swamped,

Hospital staff are flat out treating inpatients with COVID, will large chunks of the community health staff are involved in testing, (all on top of the regular Northern hemisphere Winter illnesses)

Its going to be a slow grind to get close to the levels needed to slow spread....

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tdgeek

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#2630765 5-Jan-2021 15:31

mkissin:

In the end, they may decide that neither is acceptable, and they'll stick to the recommended dose regime, requiring lockdown to last longer. In the winter.

You could look at it the other way. Lockdown will buy time. It will suffocate the virus far quicker than daily vaccinating forever will do. And that 5 weeks (now till mid Feb at least they say) is a large window to maunfacture vaccines.

mkissin

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#2630767 5-Jan-2021 15:34

tdgeek:

mkissin:

In the end, they may decide that neither is acceptable, and they'll stick to the recommended dose regime, requiring lockdown to last longer. In the winter.

You could look at it the other way. Lockdown will buy time. It will suffocate the virus far quicker than daily vaccinating forever will do. And that 5 weeks (now till mid Feb at least they say) is a large window to maunfacture vaccines.

Given that the lockdown is presumably a known input into the current discussion (in the UK), one might be tempted to think that perhaps it is expected that it won't be long enough.

kingdragonfly

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#2630777 5-Jan-2021 16:00

Foreign Policy (FP): The year in review: How China Fought the Pandemic—and Lied About It

A look back at our best essays on the onset of the coronavirus.

Batman

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#2630787 5-Jan-2021 16:41

more European countries considering delaying second dose

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/04/germany-denmark-second-dose-covid-vaccine

wellygary

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#2630790 5-Jan-2021 16:59

Batman:

more European countries considering delaying second dose

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/04/germany-denmark-second-dose-covid-vaccine

The EU were very late to the Pfizer Party, and these was speculation they were hoping for one of the others to be first.

https://www.dw.com/en/biontech-admits-it-will-struggle-to-fill-covid-vaccine-gap/a-56110454

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#2630820 5-Jan-2021 19:37

The New York Times - Pharmacist Accused of Tampering With Vaccine Was Conspiracy Theorist

today

A pharmacist who was arrested on charges that he intentionally sabotaged more than 500 doses of the Covid-19 vaccine at a Wisconsin hospital was “an admitted conspiracy theorist” who believed the vaccine could harm people and “change their DNA,” according to the police in Grafton, Wis., where the man was employed.

The police said Steven Brandenburg, 46, who worked the night shift at the Aurora Medical Center in Grafton, Wis., had twice removed a box of vials of the Moderna vaccine from the refrigerator for periods of 12 hours, rendering them “useless.”

“Brandenburg admitted to doing this intentionally, knowing that it would diminish the effects of the vaccine,” the police said. ...

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freitasm

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#2630844 5-Jan-2021 22:03

I think these two articles show exactly why we had to do the early lockdown:

"Many 'long Covid' sufferers unable to fully work six months later"

"Ambulance crews told not to transport patients who have little chance of survival"

The situation in Los Angeles County hospitals is so critical that ambulance crews have been advised to cut back on their use of oxygen and to not bring to hospitals patients who have virtually no chance of survival. Officials say they need to focus on patients with a greater chance of surviving.

The measures were taken as circumstances are expected to become even worse in coming weeks, when patients sickened over the Christmas holiday will need treatment, leaving officials desperate for ways to increase capacity and triage care to focus on the sickest patients.

Already, “many hospitals have reached a point of crisis and are having to make very tough decisions about patient care,” said Dr. Christina Ghaly, the L.A. County director of health services.

“The volume being seen in our hospitals still represents the cases that resulted from the Thanksgiving holiday,” she added during a briefing Monday. “We do not believe that we are yet seeing the cases that stemmed from the Christmas holiday. This, sadly, and the cases from the recent New Year’s holiday, is still before us, and hospitals across the region are doing everything they can to prepare.”

Batman

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#2630873 6-Jan-2021 00:03

tdgeek:

Batman:

in the USA, someone's been lying to them (and still is!) and half the people believe the lies so there's a big divide there. in fact the same information is being disseminated across the internet around the world and a lot of people inc in NZ also believe that stuff - coz i've been talking to them for the last 2 weeks. no amount of typing into this forum is going to change their mind.

No excuse. USA with its massive technology as internet access to global news. Last I heard USA Today or Fox wasn't the sole news source.

If it doesnt matter to them, it doesn't need to matter to us, plenty of places to travel to and we can ban travellers from the US, as its more than likely when the globe has got ten over this, they haven't.

i don't think you understand

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