2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2742136 10-Jul-2021 14:26

sbiddle:

antonknee:

You won’t win this argument. The whiners about vaccines have got it in their heads that us not being vaccinated until the end of the year is some massive issue, despite that having always been the plan and always been the reality for us given our situation, and that this is some betrayal of us by the government.

Your argument conveniently ignores the the reason we're the last in the world is precisely because that's the path the government and MoH took with their vaccine strategy.

We could have been like many other countries but ordered vaccines late, and while we hedged our bets, we hedged them with the wrong options. We committed to 10.72m doses of Novavax and that hasn't even received FDA approval yet. We sought lower cost options rather than higher cost mRNA options. We were never even at the front of the vaccine queue when Hipkins made his infamous comment.

And yes not being vaccinated until the end of the year IS a massive issue, and the fact you can't see that is quite concerning. The risks faced by NZ right now are truly massive and probably the greatest they have been since the beginning of the pandemic - our early won freedoms would be entirely destroyed by a breakout here right now due to our poor levels of vaccination. Any breakout runs the risk of being exactly like NSW, with the potential of not simply being able to be contained to a single city.

Maybe we should be focusing on why countries like Singapore could pick the right options and we didn't https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/how-singapore-picked-its-covid-19-vaccines

When we ordered the vaccines, were they delivered to everyone else and not us, or did we not want them till later?

if we ordered our 10 million, and no issue to get quick delivery over just a few week, where could we store them? Was they plenty of storage available then?

tdgeek

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#2742137 10-Jul-2021 14:30

sbiddle:

Very interesting article here about the Australian vaccine response.

https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/politics/2021/07/10/part-one-the-true-story-australias-vaccine-failure/162583920012026

So much of the Australian story aligns with NZ. We both believed in the UQ vaccine and both seemed to underestimate how significant the mRNA vaccines would be, hence the fact we both ended up at the back of the line with out very much aligned strategies.

Not disputing that, but when both countries ordered vaccines, was it patently obvious what was best then?

Scott3

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#2742139 10-Jul-2021 14:38

dafman:

+1

We were slow to order. There’s no excuse for this.

The communication to public on strategy and timing has been abysmal.

No national strategy, rollout appears to be uncoordinated across a range of DHB each playing to the beat of their own drum.

No national database on vaccinations, some DHB’s not keeping adequate records.

Delta knocking at our door, a complacent public, and who has any faith that MoH would be able to effectively control a our delta outbreak when it eventually arrives (let’s hope it hasn’t already), they can’t even organise themselves to resource the Helpline properly.

Just slamming "slow to order" misses the complexity of the situation.

Early on, the WHO was going to manage the distribution of vaccine equitably via Covax. Preferential treatment of rich countries was baked into this scheme. It then became apparent that many countries were sidestepping this approach via direct orders, and my perception was that NZ then jumped on the bandwagon.

It would have been a terrible look if NZ with minimal covid-19 harm was one of the first players to undermine Covax...

When we did place orders, we did for triple NZ's population.

My take was:

Plan A: 750k courses pfizer / 4.25m courses AZ (Pfizer looking to be first on market, but risky as a new technology. AZ more conventional so less risky, also a lot cheaper)

Backup 1: 5m courses J+J (Could be come plan A if single dose vaccine preformed as good as the double dose ones)

Backup 2: 5m courses Novovax (Higher risk - Only vaccine to prevent covid-19 forming in the noses of primates, hence most likely to prevent not just symptoms, but also transmission - turns out other vaccines do this too)

It wasn't untill about new years that we found out that the mRNA vaccines were far outperforming AZ. With benefit of hindsight we should have ordered a full 5m courses of mRNA vaccines mid 2020.

In early 2021 we made the decision to pivot to the more effective pfizer vaccine instead of the mixed approch, and placed our second pfizer order. This decision was basically an acceptance that our roll out was going to lag the OECD right now, but still allowed us to get doses to everybody who wanted one by the end of the year. Critically we got in before the rush of pfizer caused by the very rare blood clot thing (putting us ahead of Australia).

A that stage we have proven we could deal with outbreaks with lockdown's etc. So waiting a little longer to get the more effective vaccine (and hence increasing the odd's of herd immunity being viable) was a good play. Game has kind changed since, with variants which are both more contagious, and that the vaccines are less effective against, but an all pfizer play is still looking good.

My understanding is that first big shipments from our second order (350,000+ per week) is due to land in just 10 days. From that point onwards our ability to administer the vaccines is likely to be the bottleneck. This should allow us to pass the Likes of aussie fairly quickly, and catch up with the Likes of the USA in a few months.

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#2742140 10-Jul-2021 14:48

tdgeek:

Not disputing that, but when both countries ordered vaccines, was it patently obvious what was best then?

No. It was only when preliminary stage 3 trial results were released (late December 2020?) that the world became aware that the pfizer mRNA vaccine was way better than the AZ one.

Australia were clinging to UQ, and then AZ a lot harder than NZ as they had the ability to produce onshore. Obviously big security of supply gains from going this route, and likely cheaper too.

Fred99

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#2742143 10-Jul-2021 15:00

sbiddle:

There appear to be two parts to this - one being that Pfizer are working on an updated vaccine for newer variants. This may be given as a booster, and may end up being the "regular" vaccine going forward.

Pfizer are potentially looking to seek FDA approval to give booster dose of the current vaccine to improve the immune response in people as they believe some parts of the immune response have reduced in a 6 month period in some people which has caused breakthrough transmission on some people of the Delta variant in particular.

Yeah that's right.

From what I read, the "variant" booster may be a very small dose of (new) mRNA - to reduce side effects.

Maybe that could be used as a booster instead of another shot the original, but it's too early - for all we know the "variant booster" might not even work - but the third shot of the standard vaccine is a safe bet.

As far as not ordering heaps of Pfizer last year, I believe what @Scott3 says is correct. New technology that had failed to perform well in the past isn't something to pin your hopes on. The Pfizer covid vaccine is a huge breakthrough.

They are going to have to keep a close eye on myocarditis, but not let it get blown out of proportion like the clotting issue with AZ.

Dratsab

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#2742144 10-Jul-2021 15:03

Meanwhile, in Thailand they're getting close to 10,000 cases per day, with 91 recorded deaths in the past 24 hours. Cases have been on a very steady upwards climb over the last month or so. The Government is refusing to consider any form of lockdown, social distancing is not a thing, masks are not compulsory - the country is running in a business as usual fashion.

Scott3

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#2742148 10-Jul-2021 15:08

Regarding the return flights from Queensland (and was to be NSW), there were pitched at the press conference as being only for those who are normally resident in NZ.

Actual eligibility criteria is much much wider, and included anybody with:

- NZ citizenship of Residency

- Any Aussie citizen, resident or NZ temporary visitor who last departed NZ after 5 april

- Spouses & kiddies of the above

https://covid19.govt.nz/travel/quarantine-free-travel/australia/return-green-flights-from-australia/

I'm not too worried about Queensland. Two consecutive zero days is good.

But I am very relieved that it is no longer extended to NSW. There must be well north of 200,000 people that qualify for such travel to NZ under the above rules. Every aussie who has taken a holiday here in the last few months is included... And I imagine that hitting the slopes in queens town would be looking pritty attractive to everybody in Sydney, given tightening lock-down restrictions, and no end in sight.

Hopefully the critera around MIQ room's for people coming from NSW is a bit stricter.

Wise

Send money globally for less with Wise - one free transfer up to NZ$900 (affiliate link).

Batman

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#2742197 10-Jul-2021 16:59

it's ok to be slow to order. i miss out on deals all the time. doesn't mean i'm a bad person.

it's ok to acknowledge we were slow to order, but that's not a fault, it's what it is, beyond one's control.

slow to contact trace, etc etc, within one's control, those would be fair game to target.

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#2742200 10-Jul-2021 17:03

Dratsab:

Meanwhile, in Thailand they're getting close to 10,000 cases per day, with 91 recorded deaths in the past 24 hours. Cases have been on a very steady upwards climb over the last month or so. The Government is refusing to consider any form of lockdown, social distancing is not a thing, masks are not compulsory - the country is running in a business as usual fashion.

they had made it clear from the start they could not afford to lockdown. they don't have social payments. people live on their daily wages. life is short no matter which way you choose.

Scott3

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#2742210 10-Jul-2021 17:14

Batman:

they had made it clear from the start they could not afford to lockdown. they don't have social payments. people live on their daily wages. life is short no matter which way you choose.

Thailand has twice the GDP per capita of Philippines (where my in laws are) for example. doesn't seem like valid reasoning.

Anyway there is a lot of stuff like face coverings (improvised OK), social distancing requirements other than workplaces, that can be done at minimal cost.

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#2742218 10-Jul-2021 17:27

Scott3:

Batman:

they had made it clear from the start they could not afford to lockdown. they don't have social payments. people live on their daily wages. life is short no matter which way you choose.

Thailand has twice the GDP per capita of Philippines (where my in laws are) for example. doesn't seem like valid reasoning.

Anyway there is a lot of stuff like face coverings (improvised OK), social distancing requirements other than workplaces, that can be done at minimal cost.

in their universe belief system (like Indians), death is not evanescent, rather, life is eternal - when you die you will be rebirthed.

tdgeek

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#2742220 10-Jul-2021 17:28

@sbiddle I like your posts, I respect them, you are knowledgable as are the Freds and Scotts

Personally the issue I get is the continual lambasting of our approach. From day one, everything is a problem, everything is a drama, everything is a debacle. Australia is the gold standard. I point that more to general posts here not yours.

But the bottom line is, that hindsight is difficult at the coalface. Its easy now. From where I sit, the world is being ravaged by Covid, especially the Delta and Lambda strains. But NZ is still packing rugby stadiums full, Australia is paying the price of flouting, yet here we are, pretty darn good here. The way things are going we will be the last man standing, yet we all know that eventually Delta and Lambda will get here as we have controlled and managed, but open borders. There are probably a large number of matters we could have done better, but what we have done has, and is working

When we get an outbreak of Delta and/or Lambda, it will still work. Why? Because our culture like all humans is slack, but we are a conservative lot, we will, hunker down, buy 25 packs of toilet paper and 15kg of flour, and ride it out. If that failed, it failed less than every other country, what more could us individuals have done?

tdgeek

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#2742224 10-Jul-2021 17:31

Batman:

slow to contact trace, etc etc, within one's control, those would be fair game to target.

I agree. How many individuals like you and me scan everywhere? F all. Ok to blame the authorities, but you need to renember the MP's and MoH employees are not the problem, the masses are.

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#2742254 10-Jul-2021 19:04

tdgeek:

I agree. How many individuals like you and me scan everywhere? F all. Ok to blame the authorities, but you need to renember the MP's and MoH employees are not the problem, the masses are.

The authorities role in the pandemic has been essentially a massive exercise in crowd control. Essentially there job is to herd cats... so to speak

If your job is to herd cat's, you decide on a strategy and the cats scatter everywhere, that's a failure. Try as you might to blame the cats your job is to deal with their fickle nature.

Basically the same in the real world. If you choose scanning in as a key to your covid-19 contact tracing approach despite rates of the public doing so being low pritty much globally, try as you might to blame the public it really falls back to a strategic failure.

Of course on the other hand, it is the first time we have been through a pandemic of this type / scale in recent history. The response isn't going to be perfect. And given aspects of New Zealand (low public transport use etc), compliant population etc. The response doesn't need to be perfect either. We have got lucky many times, ability to run effective lock-downs bails us out when our luck inevitably fails.

tdgeek

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#2742331 11-Jul-2021 08:15

Scott3:

The authorities role in the pandemic has been essentially a massive exercise in crowd control. Essentially there job is to herd cats... so to speak

If your job is to herd cat's, you decide on a strategy and the cats scatter everywhere, that's a failure. Try as you might to blame the cats your job is to deal with their fickle nature.

Basically the same in the real world. If you choose scanning in as a key to your covid-19 contact tracing approach despite rates of the public doing so being low pritty much globally, try as you might to blame the public it really falls back to a strategic failure.

Of course on the other hand, it is the first time we have been through a pandemic of this type / scale in recent history. The response isn't going to be perfect. And given aspects of New Zealand (low public transport use etc), compliant population etc. The response doesn't need to be perfect either. We have got lucky many times, ability to run effective lock-downs bails us out when our luck inevitably fails.

We could mandate everything as an authoritarian states do. Make vaccination compulsory too. Fiji has now said no jab no job. Every country has the same problem, lack of compliancy, I dont know how for they can all go to ensure the cats stay herded. If they went to the nth degree the human rights card gets played. If it stays as it is now, Govts are blamed. Assuming we are soon treated a s military state, it ends up at the people.

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