2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2747366 20-Jul-2021 23:08

Scott3:

We absolute should be doing everything we reasonably can to minimise risk of an outbreak here for the next 8 - 10 weeks that gives us 4 weeks to ramp our vaccination program up to say 300,000 doses a week, and 4 - 6 weeks running at that rate. Should be up around the 3m doses given point then (a little over 30% of the population with first doses, a little under fully vaccinated). That level of vaccination should be starting to drag down the R0 a little and make the virus easier to eliminate if it gets into NZ.

This is absolutely true - we need to desperately step up our defence above "level one".

CT of Delta presents a considerable additional challenge. This from ABC News:

Sydney's lockdown will need to last until September to suppress case numbers, new modelling shows.

The model was developed by the Populations Intervention Unit at the University of Melbourne, and bases the lockdown ending when the median number of new daily COVID-19 cases falls below five.

It shows that, on the current Stage 4 Sydney lockdown settings, that threshold would be reached on September 4.

The model was run 10,000 times to take uncertainties into account.

It might be better, it might be worse, but it's not like locking down CT outbreaks of early C-19 variants.

mattwnz

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#2747368 20-Jul-2021 23:21

Based on Sydney, NZ surely they shouldn't be needing to reassess the bubble pause every few days. They should know that Sydney is out of the bubble for a months at least, because they didn't lockdown early enough and also seem to have had flouters.

Scott3

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#2747371 20-Jul-2021 23:47

mattwnz:

Long Covid is a problem quite a few people seem to suffer from months later.

Apparently Queensland have some Community Transmission cases too in the last day or so. Is our 'bubble still open to them? I have lost track on which states are open and closed now. As these states have totally different rules, and when they should and shouldn't lockdown (Victoria and NSW are two different extremes), I hope we are following NZs tolerances.

I wonder who is going to be accountable when we get a CT case of the Delta from Oz from this bubble?

QFT from Queensland is still fully open (as with all of Aussie a pre-departure negative test result is required).

https://covid19.govt.nz/travel/quarantine-free-travel/australia/

No body is going to be accountable. If covid-19 gets in it is just a result of us playing the odds required to have the bubble open...

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#2747380 21-Jul-2021 06:22

> 70 cases linked to olympics, no guarantees of going ahead

https://edition.cnn.com/2021/07/20/sport/tokyo-2020-olympic-bubble-broken-spt-intl/index.html

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#2747382 21-Jul-2021 06:56

GPs not happy with communications re vaccine rollout

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-gp-vaccine-delay-leaving-vulnerable-people-unprotected-doctor/IQ4XQI7BDOPQWWMJIQV2KC35FM/

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#2747383 21-Jul-2021 06:58

excess deaths in India 10x higher than covid tally

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/20/india-excess-deaths-during-covid-could-be-10-times-official-toll

sbiddle

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#2747384 21-Jul-2021 07:22

Batman:

GPs not happy with communications re vaccine rollout

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-gp-vaccine-delay-leaving-vulnerable-people-unprotected-doctor/IQ4XQI7BDOPQWWMJIQV2KC35FM/

I really don't understand this. He's claiming people who should (and would have been) vaccinated months ago are purposely holding out? Why?

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#2747386 21-Jul-2021 07:31

most probably poor journalism. they write things how they hear / remember them, not necessarily what was actually said. and do they apply brains to test the logic of what they report? nope. do they even care about spelling and grammar - nope that's the editor's job. as long as i get my piece out. now ... what's the best clickbait title for this ...

what was actually said was probably -

some of my patients thought they would be able to get immunised at their gps so they politely said no to the call-ins thinking we'd be up and running soon, and we thought we'd be up and running by now but we just can't get hold of the MOH to get any updates

sbiddle

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#2747387 21-Jul-2021 07:32

Fred99:

Scott3:

We absolute should be doing everything we reasonably can to minimise risk of an outbreak here for the next 8 - 10 weeks that gives us 4 weeks to ramp our vaccination program up to say 300,000 doses a week, and 4 - 6 weeks running at that rate. Should be up around the 3m doses given point then (a little over 30% of the population with first doses, a little under fully vaccinated). That level of vaccination should be starting to drag down the R0 a little and make the virus easier to eliminate if it gets into NZ.

This is absolutely true - we need to desperately step up our defence above "level one".

The problem is there isn't the political motivation to do this because we've already beaten Covid and won. Remember we're the best in the world at this!

Enforcing higher levels of restrictions makes so much sense right now because of the truly massive risks we do face. The problem is however that our entire Covid response has been based around being reactive rather than proactive, and enforcing greater restrictions on people would go down like a lead balloon.

The biggest question would be *exactly* what we could do in terms of additional steps - enforcing current level 2 restrictions with no CT would see an uprising, and creating a new level 1.5 which is level 1 with mandated mask use outside the home would be highly unpopular in a country that has never had this requirement at any point of the pandemic.

At the end of the day we need to be getting jabs in arms as quick as we can, but we're still not going to be reaching peak daily figures for another 7 weeks or so when most of our vaccines are given in September and October.

GV27

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#2747389 21-Jul-2021 07:33

sbiddle:

I really don't understand this. He's claiming people who should (and would have been) vaccinated months ago are purposely holding out? Why?

For some context: My grandmother who lives on the Hibiscus Coast had to travel to Northcote or something on the Shore to get hers.

That's not an insignificant trip when you're getting up there in years, when the option to go locally through your GP could exist and be far easier.

I get the issue he's raising though - we give them priority because they're elderly and then tell them they have to go on a trek with a sherpa and a packed lunch to actually get it.

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#2747390 21-Jul-2021 07:43

GV27:

sbiddle:

I really don't understand this. He's claiming people who should (and would have been) vaccinated months ago are purposely holding out? Why?

For some context: My grandmother who lives on the Hibiscus Coast had to travel to Northcote or something on the Shore to get hers.

That's not an insignificant trip when you're getting up there in years, when the option to go locally through your GP could exist and be far easier.

I get the issue he's raising though - we give them priority because they're elderly and then tell them they have to go on a trek with a sherpa and a packed lunch to actually get it.

Our of curiosity what entitled her to be in group 2? Aged care facilities have taken a long time to get things done but these are all done on site. In the case of elderly Maori or Pacifica people there seemed to be pretty good support channels in place that I've read about across Auckland (there is in Wellington as well) to get their people to their mass vaccination centres.

GP's having any large scale involvement in the vaccine rollout is only a recent thing but many seemed very confused about that. There probably should have been a lot better clarification and communication around this, because it appears many saw the silence as being a case of waiting until they knew something, rather than the fact they weren't actually going to be involved, hence the lack of communication.

GV27

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#2747397 21-Jul-2021 08:08

sbiddle:

Our of curiosity what entitled her to be in group 2? Aged care facilities have taken a long time to get things done but these are all done on site. In the case of elderly Maori or Pacifica people there seemed to be pretty good support channels in place that I've read about across Auckland (there is in Wellington as well) to get their people to their mass vaccination centres.

She's about a thousand years old, so I'm guessing that's the main driver, without putting too fine a point on things.

The Hibiscus Coast is a known hotbed of elderly people, so not having a local vaccination centre is a head scratcher. If there is a bus down to the North Shore, you're still asking them to take a 30km bus ride each way for it.

Like I say, that's a big ask when a 'local' option could have been a hell of a lot more local than that. So I suspect some people have just decided to say bugger it, too hard and I'll wait until the GP can do it.

Which is all well and good until the GP isn't actually going to be doing them.

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#2747399 21-Jul-2021 08:22

GV27:

sbiddle:

Our of curiosity what entitled her to be in group 2? Aged care facilities have taken a long time to get things done but these are all done on site. In the case of elderly Maori or Pacifica people there seemed to be pretty good support channels in place that I've read about across Auckland (there is in Wellington as well) to get their people to their mass vaccination centres.

She's about a thousand years old, so I'm guessing that's the main driver, without putting too fine a point on things.

The Hibiscus Coast is a known hotbed of elderly people, so not having a local vaccination centre is a head scratcher. If there is a bus down to the North Shore, you're still asking them to take a 30km bus ride each way for it.

Like I say, that's a big ask when a 'local' option could have been a hell of a lot more local than that. So I suspect some people have just decided to say bugger it, too hard and I'll wait until the GP can do it.

Which is all well and good until the GP isn't actually going to be doing them.

But elderly were only part of group 2 in the Counties Manukau DHB area - everywhere else elderly are part of group 3 which won't be complete until around September. Group 3 is only going to start ramping up now and GP surgeries are going to be involved as part of that.

Elsewhere elderly were only part of group 2 if they were in a rest home, and in that situation the vaccinators visit the rest home. I know people in such environments who have only had jabs in the last week or so.

GV27

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#2747456 21-Jul-2021 08:40

sbiddle:

But elderly were only part of group 2 in the Counties Manukau DHB area - everywhere else elderly are part of group 3 which won't be complete until around September. Group 3 is only going to start ramping up now and GP surgeries are going to be involved as part of that.

Elsewhere elderly were only part of group 2 if they were in a rest home, and in that situation the vaccinators visit the rest home. I know people in such environments who have only had jabs in the last week or so.

What's your point? She's had it, but to get it at this point, it involved as huge trek across Auckland at this point. OK if you've got the family support to get you there, not if you don't.

GPs being involved in a wider-scale roll-out may have helped avoided that? That's all I'm saying. Will probably be different now we have a decent haul of vaccines to dish out.

tdgeek

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#2747460 21-Jul-2021 08:52

GV27:

What's your point? She's had it, but to get it at this point, it involved as huge trek across Auckland at this point. OK if you've got the family support to get you there, not if you don't.

GPs being involved in a wider-scale roll-out may have helped avoided that? That's all I'm saying. Will probably be different now we have a decent haul of vaccines to dish out.

Another factor is to setup a vaccine clinic you would need to get all them ready to go, otherwise you are staffing it for casual drop ins, might be a waste of resource given that vaccine supply was limited till now.

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