2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2747794 21-Jul-2021 18:35

hairy1:

It is a race if you have community transmission. We have been lucky (or skillful) thus far but watch the wailing and gnashing of teeth if we end up with CT while the vaccination is not complete.

Realistically, we will. Its hard to imagine we are Delta free by Dec 2021, that won't happen. We will get Delta this year and we will have lockdowns. I feel thats realistic.

Right now we are running (vaccinations) and Covid is chasing us. We could have cases next week, maybe we can hang on from the inevitable by October. The longer we can hold out, the more are vaccinated. At least we haven't been caught, so far.

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#2747797 21-Jul-2021 18:42

tdgeek:

Its not a race

Well comparisons with Aus vaccine rollout rate are completely inane but popular due to political bias. No doubt there's plenty of similar bias in Aus, criticising their response and arguing that NZ has things much more under control, including our far "kinder" border control measures.

But we are in a race. If we get sustained CT of delta variant in NZ, we'll have no choice but to lock down until vaccination rates are at whatever level's going to be needed - based on evidence that will only be available at that time - to minimise deaths.

~60% adult vaccination rate is clearly not even close to enough to break sustained CT.

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#2747798 21-Jul-2021 18:43

I was meaning it is a race against time rather than Aussie if there is CT. Anyone who has CT wishes they had more vaccinated.

My views (except when I am looking out their windows) are not those of my employer.

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#2747799 21-Jul-2021 18:50

Front page of SMH :

tdgeek

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#2747810 21-Jul-2021 19:10

hairy1:

I was meaning it is a race against time rather than Aussie if there is CT. Anyone who has CT wishes they had more vaccinated.

Off course it is a race against Covid, as I alluded to. The post I was referring to was inferring a race between NZ and AUS by comparing vaccination rates.

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#2747890 21-Jul-2021 22:06

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/jul/21/coronavirus-live-news-south-korea-reports-record-daily-cases-67-in-india-have-covid-antibodies-survey-finds

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#2747905 21-Jul-2021 23:45

Some restrictions return to Israel as coronavirus cases continue to climb.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/some-restrictions-return-as-coronavirus-cases-continue-to-climb/

"New restrictions on public life came into effect midnight Tuesday, limiting access to large indoor events and instating a raft of new fines for those violating health rules, as Israel strives to contain a recent rise in coronavirus infections.

...

Aside from the indoor event rules, all businesses — including stores — are prohibited from granting entry to anyone not wearing a face mask. Violators will be fined NIS 1,000.

There is already a NIS 500 fine in place for those who enter public indoor spaces not wearing a face mask.

...

Authorities were said to also be mulling more moves, with case numbers continuing to climb. That could include applying the Green Pass system to all indoor venues, regardless of size, including businesses and restaurants, Channel 12 reported Tuesday.

..."

- in country with one of the highest proportions of its adult population vaccinated (but also currently a high rate of new infections).

Meanwhile, in the England ...

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#2747912 22-Jul-2021 07:26

tdgeek:

sbiddle:

Australia will surpass us for fully vaccinated (2 jabs) within the next few days. They're really ramping up as well with larger Pfizer orders and currently going around 175k doses per day and also huge numbers of 2nd jabs.

By the middle of next month things might start to be a little closer, but it wouldn't surprise me if we don't surpass them until possibly late August, they are waaaay ahead of us on first dose numbers.

Its not a race

It's the biggest race of our lives. Our vaccination rollout is now at a very critical point.

Australia's vaccination rate is miles ahead of us and what they're going through now is all the proof we need that jabs in arms ASAP is hugely important. They're proof that even with roughly 1 in every 3 people having had their first jab that it's not sufficient to stop rampant CT, and the potential implications of a delta outbreak here could be so much worse.

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#2747914 22-Jul-2021 07:45

Thailand using AZ to boost Sinovac

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-15/thailand-sinovac-astrazeneca-combination-supply-issues/100288920

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#2747915 22-Jul-2021 07:47

Scott3:

All ready starting to see a bit of an uptick on that red line.

The ministry of health graph (below) from a few months back had us a big uptick in quantity at the end of Aug, then about 250k weekly doses for three solid months. That would work out to 7,150 a day per million. (after say 3 weeks to ramp to that number).

We seem to be set to get 350k - 370k weekly shipments until the end of next month, so that sets a theoretical limit of 10,000 per million per day on the graph. I think we are unlikely to get their due to staffing limits. Would be great if we do, but still coming in well below Singapore current rate.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/the-race-to-vaccinate-new-zealand-in-36-weeks

What I can't understand is group 3 started vaccinations on the 1st May, we are 11 weeks and 5 days into it and about to start bookings for group 4 next week, yet only 10% (180,000) of the 1.7 million people in group 3 are fully vaccinated (on yesterdays updated numbers). IMO on the graph above they should move group 4 to start in Sept and get all of group 3 done first, after all they are the ones who need it.

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#2747920 22-Jul-2021 07:50

DS248:

Some restrictions return to Israel as coronavirus cases continue to climb.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/some-restrictions-return-as-coronavirus-cases-continue-to-climb/

"New restrictions on public life came into effect midnight Tuesday, limiting access to large indoor events and instating a raft of new fines for those violating health rules, as Israel strives to contain a recent rise in coronavirus infections.

...

Aside from the indoor event rules, all businesses — including stores — are prohibited from granting entry to anyone not wearing a face mask. Violators will be fined NIS 1,000.

There is already a NIS 500 fine in place for those who enter public indoor spaces not wearing a face mask.

...

Authorities were said to also be mulling more moves, with case numbers continuing to climb. That could include applying the Green Pass system to all indoor venues, regardless of size, including businesses and restaurants, Channel 12 reported Tuesday.

..."

- in country with one of the highest proportions of its adult population vaccinated (but also currently a high rate of new infections).

Meanwhile, in the England ...

England actually has more adults vaccinated (with at least their first jab) than Israel. Comparing stats is becoming increasingly difficult due to the differing approaches to vaccinating those under 16, and I suspect there will be a growing number of countries who opt to not vaccinate children, or if they do it may only be 12-16 yr olds which is going to make comparing percentages of full population very difficult.

England sits at around 87% of adults who have had their first jab (Wales is 90, Scotland is 89) and 100% of adults who have been offered their first jab vs 2nd dose figures which are around 15-20 below that but that is growing rapidly every day.

It's pretty clear capturing the last ~10% who are either vaccine hesitant or anti vaxxers is going to be incredibly difficult.

Israel has struggled to get much over 80% in part due to the ultra-orthodox hangouts where vaccine rates are still lower.

Here's a story from a few days ago from Israel saying there was only a single case of somebody aged under 60 who was fully vaccinated who had serious symptoms (and they were in the 50-59 bracket). Everybody else was either over 60 or was unvaccinated. Vaccines do work.

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#2747923 22-Jul-2021 08:05

JPNZ:

Scott3:

All ready starting to see a bit of an uptick on that red line.

The ministry of health graph (below) from a few months back had us a big uptick in quantity at the end of Aug, then about 250k weekly doses for three solid months. That would work out to 7,150 a day per million. (after say 3 weeks to ramp to that number).

We seem to be set to get 350k - 370k weekly shipments until the end of next month, so that sets a theoretical limit of 10,000 per million per day on the graph. I think we are unlikely to get their due to staffing limits. Would be great if we do, but still coming in well below Singapore current rate.

https://www.newsroom.co.nz/the-race-to-vaccinate-new-zealand-in-36-weeks

What I can't understand is group 3 started vaccinations on the 1st May, we are 11 weeks and 5 days into it and about to start bookings for group 4 next week, yet only 10% (180,000) of the 1.7 million people in group 3 are fully vaccinated (on yesterdays updated numbers). IMO on the graph above they should move group 4 to start in Sept and get all of group 3 done first, after all they are the ones who need it.

Firstly that graph is now horribly outdated and wrong.

Secondly the point you raise is kinda valid, but shows the problem of listening to people such as Chris Hipkins rather than relying on actual published data and statistics. He has to ultimately take some blame for people misunderstanding data, in part because he didn't want to correct some misinformation and assumptions people had made because it would have painted a worse picture than they wanted.

Group 3 rollout started in late May and was always going to overlap with group 4. There had never been any plan to finish group 3 before group 4 started which is something many people incorrectly assumed, and despite that becoming the belief of many people nothing was ever done to correct it. Most of group 3 should have been able to get their first jab by around early-mid September looking at the official data and rollout.

While group 4 starts at the end of July the vast percentage of people in group 4 will not be vaccinated until the middle of September through to late October when mass vaccination centres are operational.

Why this isn't more widely known is still a mystery to me, because none of it is a secret. At stand-ups there have been plenty of opportunities to put the facts out there, but that would mean many people would actually realise their true vaccination dates are a lot later than they'd expected.

tdgeek

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#2747953 22-Jul-2021 08:21

sbiddle:

It's the biggest race of our lives. Our vaccination rollout is now at a very critical point.

Australia's vaccination rate is miles ahead of us and what they're going through now is all the proof we need that jabs in arms ASAP is hugely important. They're proof that even with roughly 1 in every 3 people having had their first jab that it's not sufficient to stop rampant CT, and the potential implications of a delta outbreak here could be so much worse.

Its a race against Covid, not Australia, that was my point

Clearly Delta is a far higher risk than Alpha, but dont use Australia as proof, they have always had issues with compliance, and Delta will magnify that exponentially. Plus we can only vaccinate the supplies we get, which we have

Fred99

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#2747954 22-Jul-2021 08:21

sbiddle:

It's pretty clear capturing the last ~10% who are either vaccine hesitant or anti vaxxers is going to be incredibly difficult.

There's also a reasonably significant number of people who are immunocompromised and for whom the vaccines won't work - or won't work very well, many of whom would also have poor outcomes if they did get infected. These same people are already at risk from flu etc, but obviously C-19 is much worse.

The anti-vaxxers who'll be a pool of ongoing infection risk need to be minimised, otherwise we'll be waiting years before enough of them have been infected and either died or gained enough herd immunity to keep numbers down - if that's even going to be possible

There are already mab treatments - but they need to be administered at onset of symptoms and they're expensive. Maybe anti-vaxxers should be denied public funded access to those treatments, as they not only increase risk thus probable demand for treatments themselves, but their behaviour increases risk to those who really need the treatments and have no choice.

JPNZ

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#2747956 22-Jul-2021 08:23

sbiddle:

Firstly that graph is now horribly outdated and wrong.

Secondly the point you raise is kinda valid, but shows the problem of listening to people such as Chris Hipkins rather than relying on actual published data and statistics. He has to ultimately take some blame for people misunderstanding data, in part because he didn't want to correct some misinformation and assumptions people had made because it would have painted a worse picture than they wanted.

Group 3 rollout started in late May and was always going to overlap with group 4. There had never been any plan to finish group 3 before group 4 started which is something many people incorrectly assumed, and despite that becoming the belief of many people nothing was ever done to correct it. Most of group 3 should have been able to get their first jab by around early-mid September looking at the official data and rollout.

While group 4 starts at the end of July the vast percentage of people in group 4 will not be vaccinated until the middle of September through to late October when mass vaccination centres are operational.

Why this isn't more widely known is still a mystery to me, because none of it is a secret. At stand-ups there have been plenty of opportunities to put the facts out there, but that would mean many people would actually realise their true vaccination dates are a lot later than they'd expected.

I think the crux of what your saying is, the government doesn't want to come out and say two truths:

"The vaccination program is running well behind schedule"

"We won't reach 80% vaccination target by December 2021"

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