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sbiddle:
DS248:
Some restrictions return to Israel as coronavirus cases continue to climb.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/some-restrictions-return-as-coronavirus-cases-continue-to-climb/
...
- in country with one of the highest proportions of its adult population vaccinated (but also currently a high rate of new infections).
Meanwhile, in the England ...
England actually has more adults vaccinated (with at least their first jab) than Israel. Comparing stats is becoming increasingly difficult due to the differing approaches to vaccinating those under 16, and I suspect there will be a growing number of countries who opt to not vaccinate children, or if they do it may only be 12-16 yr olds which is going to make comparing percentages of full population very difficult.
England sits at around 87% of adults who have had their first jab (Wales is 90, Scotland is 89) and 100% of adults who have been offered their first jab vs 2nd dose figures which are around 15-20 below that but that is growing rapidly every day.
It's pretty clear capturing the last ~10% who are either vaccine hesitant or anti vaxxers is going to be incredibly difficult.
Israel has struggled to get much over 80% in part due to the ultra-orthodox hangouts where vaccine rates are still lower.
Here's a story from a few days ago from Israel saying there was only a single case of somebody aged under 60 who was fully vaccinated who had serious symptoms (and they were in the 50-59 bracket). Everybody else was either over 60 or was unvaccinated. Vaccines do work.
re "England actually has more adults vaccinated (with at least their first jab) than Israel."
Assuming you mean by percentage of population, that is only correct for people over 60 (and even then, only marginally so).
See plots below for comparison between England & Israel vaccination rates by age band.
Data are as at 20 July 2021 (hot off the press!). In both cases directly from official government sources.
Vaccination rates in England for under-50's are well below the corresponding Israeli rates.
Note re 'x-29' Age Group: Data for England are for '18_29' year olds; those for Israel are for '20_29' year olds.
Data sources (accessed 22 July 21)
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations?areaType=nation&areaName=England
https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/general
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Regarding the above graph, Yes it's fairly old.
I posted it because it seems to be largely on the money with regards to dosing volumes to (cira 1.5m doses in mid july), seems to tie in well with the governments goal of getting everybody who ones a vaccine done by the end of the year.
There has been relatively little well presented data like this on the vaccine roll-out.
Ignore the Group 4 start date. 1 July date on the graph (when only 1m doses have been given out total) was going to result in an epic overlap between Group 3 and Group 4. Something that kinda goes against the principals of a prioritization scheme.
This date has already been pushed back a month. Even then we will have only given out cira 2m doses (roughly half of what is needed to cover groups 1 - 3). Suspect what will happen is that the remaining group 3 people will be given booking codes before the end of the month (and some kind of booking method for those who have got missed by the code messaging). These people will then book out the next 1.5+ months of appointments. I expect that group 4 will go live for 60+ year olds as planned at the end of the month, but they will all be booking appointments in September onward.
From the curve, it seems pritty clear it is going to be Cira October before we get are getting to a point where vaccination is commonplace for those in group 4.
I hope that given our current massive vaccine supply that they can get the dose rate (curve gradient) higher in Aug / Sept / October.
Looking at places like Israel, I think there is a decent chance that our vaccination program hit the point where dose rate drops off and the program becomes participant limited at around 60% of our population (might be a little more for us as we have approval for 12+ years already).
The success or failure is really going to come down to what percentage of population we reach before participants become hard to find. I am actually warming to the likes of the Vodafone events center. Pick a random bunch of people (in this case MIT students + Extended family) and give them special priority access to the vaccine in a one time only offer. The "Now or many months away" choice is more motivating than being able to rock up whenever. Plus people like special treatment.
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