2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2777802 13-Sep-2021 18:34

vexxxboy:

it is the thousands of essential workers who are still moving about who are still spreading it .

Makes sense. Is it feasible to test all of these twice weekly? Or localised wastewater as it exits the facility? Maybe that's better

ajobbins

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#2777809 13-Sep-2021 18:49

mattwnz:

The R value is currently under 1 which it needs to be for it to die out.

This is ostensibly true....BUT

If you have even a small number of undetected cases out there and you start to relax restrictions, it could just flare up again. It could actually be an increasing risk as your vaccination numbers come up as it seems that breakthrough cases in the vaccinated are often asymptomatic, so you could have several chains of transmission start and it be a number of days before anyone of them get detected. Delta just moves so fast.

I feel for those in Auckland - Where I am (VIC, AU) we are at 220 days of lockdown since the beginning of last year, albeit less restrictive in some ways than your L4, but if you really want to have confidence you don't have any undetected chains of transmission, you're going to need AT LEAST 7 days at L4 with 0 cases that are unlinked and 0 cases who have spent any time in the community.

Remembering this whole outbreak was seeded by a single case and it took around 5 days (they think) before it was discovered. Yes, you would expect far less spread if you were at L3, but that also assumes good compliance. It was the poor compliance and lockdown fatigue that did us in here in VIC - we nearly had it under control, but too many people were over lockdown and it didn't take all that many of them for it to quickly get out of control

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ajobbins

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#2777810 13-Sep-2021 18:55

tdgeek:

Or localised wastewater as it exits the facility? Maybe that's better

Testing wastewater is useful if you are working off a baseline of no detection. It's known that wastewater can show positive from historic cases that are long recovered but still shedding. I'd expect to see positive detections in Auckland wastewater, especially South Auckland, for weeks after the last known case.

I have no idea what the process is for testing, but it seems to take a few days to process a result, so it may also be too slow to be useful in preventing an outbreak taking hold (That's not to say it's not useful, just that it's a bit of a crude tool for primary detection).

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Fred99

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#2777823 13-Sep-2021 19:35

ajobbins:

I have no idea what the process is for testing, but it seems to take a few days to process a result, so it may also be too slow to be useful in preventing an outbreak taking hold (That's not to say it's not useful, just that it's a bit of a crude tool for primary detection).

Yep. Seems delta adds extra challenges there too, time from being infected to infecting others is reduced, and they could be much more infectious. So by the time a wastewater sample is collected, is transported to the lab (ESR in Wellington) tests positive and intensified surveillance testing picks up the case, then without lockdown conditions you could easily have a cluster of 50 cases.

GV27

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#2777827 13-Sep-2021 20:06

Fred99:

Yep. Seems delta adds extra challenges there too, time from being infected to infecting others is reduced, and they could be much more infectious. So by the time a wastewater sample is collected, is transported to the lab (ESR in Wellington) tests positive and intensified surveillance testing picks up the case, then without lockdown conditions you could easily have a cluster of 50 cases.

I'd like to know if we really lack this capability in Auckland, and if so, why.

Seems an odd thing to not be able to do in the country's biggest (and arguably only real) city.

mkissin

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#2777832 13-Sep-2021 20:27

I think the wastewater testing problems are more technical in nature than just generally being slow. When you think about what they’re attempting to achieve with it, it’s pretty nutty. A single person taking a crap at a single time of day and you manage to catch it and get a positive test before they’ve infected others? Probably not.

This is a good read - https://www.esr.cri.nz/our-expertise/covid-19-response/other-covid-19-work/wastewater-faqs/

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#2777840 13-Sep-2021 21:18

I believe the intention with wastewater testing is not prevention/stopping the spread but rather surveillance (not in the privacy breaking type but rather observing whether Covid is in the community).

It then allows you to make informed decisions on how far and wide the infection is. Eg. suburbs, cities, north island...

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Oblivian

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#2777843 13-Sep-2021 21:34

Their money got their wish granted

24hrs. + "It was granted to allow their counsel to apply to the High Court for suppression of a longer duration."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-auckland-couple-who-flew-to-wanaka-holiday-home-granted-interim-name-suppression/ML34JPLPNTQGIUBBS5YKUFPK5U/

ajobbins

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#2777844 13-Sep-2021 21:38

Oblivian:
Their money got their wish granted

A waste of money really given their names are all over the internet today. A dumb decision that will likely hurt their careers

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Oblivian

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#2777845 13-Sep-2021 21:42

Indeed. Believe it's more dads career and association they want to protect, I mean keep secret.

Not sure of any other mere mortals in Akl had bailed on the same circumstance could pay for the holiday home let alone the $1400/hr(ish?) QC fees.

From a story about the history of a very unique kiwi thing to ensure a fair trial to all. Although I expect the latter is applying here

Nowadays, New Zealand has a much more open approach that sees suppression, in theory, only granted if naming the defendant could risk a fair trial, or could cause the defendant "extreme hardship"

Aside of this what will no doubt be called a high profile case.

When your camp is a little bit closer. You simply outrun police.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-two-sisters-remanded-in-custody-for-allegedly-driving-through-northlandauckland-border/BWISA5HEV44D6MUVJWXXMIP6H4/

Batman

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#2777848 13-Sep-2021 21:51

Aucklanders in 7 suburbs asked to get tested even if no symptoms

umm ok you hope they would set up 7 testing centres right in those suburbs to get better numbers

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-aucklanders-in-seven-suburbs-told-to-get-a-test-even-without-symptoms/B5DCW7LJJLY3R4ML7LYXYDOVCE/

Oblivian

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#2777849 13-Sep-2021 22:13

Batman:

Aucklanders in 7 suburbs asked to get tested even if no symptoms

umm ok you hope they would set up 7 testing centres right in those suburbs to get better numbers

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-outbreak-aucklanders-in-seven-suburbs-told-to-get-a-test-even-without-symptoms/B5DCW7LJJLY3R4ML7LYXYDOVCE/

A little surprising there is targeting like that. Yet the 4 new locations added in Botany area this evening are monitor-only.

But as late as yesterday. Ae corumba. Keeping ahead is the plan..

Batman

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#2777851 13-Sep-2021 22:20

well i hope they bring testing to the suburb, i can't see how writing an article in the herald alone is good

mattwnz

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#2777852 13-Sep-2021 22:28

I think they really need to do massive testing in concerning areas. I recall China tested the entire Wuhan population.

Also I think it is time for helicopter payments, as there are likely people who can’t afford to live, and could be going out to work. Some may normally be paid in cash. IMO we need people to stay at home.

mattwnz

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#2777925 14-Sep-2021 00:31

Apparently NZ is sick of the lockdowns according to this NZ mainstream media story Government under pressure to explain when NZ will stop relying on lockdowns (msn.com)

Yet they don't discuss what the alternative is, and what it is going to be like to live with the virus , which is the only alternative to lockdowns along with vaccination, and vaccination is not a silver bullet as it can become less effective over time, and we don't know how long future booster will be long term , esp. with new variants. .

Personally I am not sick of them, and the government is doing what is right, and everyone had to play a part in this fight to purge it. I understand that the alternative is far far worse, and it is 'short term pain for long term gain'. Friends in the UK had no option but to endure months and months of lockdowns, and that was just to slow down the virus, so each time they went out to the supermarket, they potentially risked getting it. That isn't the case to the same extent here when cases are still very low.

They used the example that Scotland have nearly 70% fully vac'd but still had nearly 60 deaths in a week. I have heard so many people saying that NZ only needs 70% vaccination like Australia, yet Australia's health system is far batter than NZs, and they have far more ICU capacity to cope with cases than NZ.

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