2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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86 posts

Master Geek
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#2791576 8-Oct-2021 08:17

Daynger:

I give it two weeks before it is all over the North Island.

I would like to see a hard border for the South Island to at least help keep the economy ticking over.

All freight via container on the trains on to the ferry or tractor trailers dumped on to the ferry and a SI truckie picking up the trailer off the ferry at the other side.

Minimum vaccinated and tested to go to the SI with minimal exceptions to actually go.

What will actually happen, delivery freight driver will unknowingly spread it.

Yes it will be very disappointing if we wait for spread to SI and then move it to level 3. Restrict the straight now and preserve the relative financial and lifestyle normality for South Islanders. Why throw it away?

gzt

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#2791581 8-Oct-2021 08:33

Handle9:
Batman: Nsw hits 70% double dose 89% first dose

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.smh.com.au/national/nsw/restaurants-gyms-set-to-reopen-as-nsw-passes-70-per-cent-double-dose-mark-20211006-p58xsy.html
Their vaccination rates are outstanding. It would be worth considering whether the strategy that got them there can be replicated.

I expect one factor sadly is the large number of deaths and hospitalisations in NSW increased motivation.

GV27

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#2791587 8-Oct-2021 08:49

bluey:

Yes it will be very disappointing if we wait for spread to SI and then move it to level 3. Restrict the straight now and preserve the relative financial and lifestyle normality for South Islanders. Why throw it away?

It's school holidays and you have to provide an opportunity for people to return how before you do something like that anyway.

It's too late.

CruciasNZ

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#2791589 8-Oct-2021 08:54

bluey:

Yes it will be very disappointing if we wait for spread to SI and then move it to level 3. Restrict the straight now and preserve the relative financial and lifestyle normality for South Islanders. Why throw it away?

Aye this seems such a no-brainer from a science and safety standpoint, but the financial and political cost will be too high for the government to pay. They didn't lock Auckland down hard enough for long enough, which shows the financial and political cost of this lockdown is already straining against what they're willing to pay.

Sadly the SI is getting Delta for Christmas, and it will likely come with air point dollars

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PolicyGuy

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#2791593 8-Oct-2021 09:02

Fred99:

tdgeek:

So, the 90%+ wont happen, but if it stalls at 87% or less, then push forward. Cant help those that cant help themselves.

I hope you're wrong.

With the right persuasion to round up the "hesitant" I think it's possible. NZ isn't the US where they've been rolling out vaccine since the start of the year - but we only got started with relatively unhindered access a month or so ago.

NZ already has a higher rate of first dose administered - 80%. (82% booked) vs 65% US average. (NY Times data)

The highest ranked US states (Vermont and Massachusetts) are at 78%, West Virginia and Idaho only 48%.

This was Wednesday:

so it can be done!

Fred99

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#2791598 8-Oct-2021 09:13

sbiddle:

Where do I sign up for my booster? For those of us who were vaccinated before July the data that's coming out in multiple studies showing the need for boosters ASAP is now becoming increasingly clear.

To quote a paragraph from one of those studies:

BNT162b2-induced protection against SARS-COV-2 infection appeared to wane rapidly following its peak after the second dose, but protection against hospitalization and death persisted at a robust level for 6 months after the second dose.

...

Estimated BNT162b2 effectiveness against any severe, critical, or fatal disease due to any SARS-CoV-2 infection was negligible for the first 2 weeks after the first dose. It increased rapidly to 66.1% (95% CI, 56.8 to 73.5) in the third week after the first dose and reached 96% or higher in the first 2 months after the second dose (Table 2 and Figure 2B). Unlike effectiveness against infection, effectiveness against hospitalization and death did not decline over time, except possibly in the seventh month after the second dose when there was a hint of a decline, but the case numbers were small.

Effectiveness against infection from a booster might wane just as fast as from the second dose and there are risks from constant jabbing - as well as from getting a (hopefully mild) infection.

10 million doses of Novavax on order, but no approvals anywhere yet, and delta-specific boosters in development, but I'm surprised that we don't have 5 million more doses of Pfizer on order as a backup plan.

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GV27

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#2791600 8-Oct-2021 09:17

PolicyGuy:

This was Wednesday:

so it can be done!

You could compare ACT to Wellington's numbers, maybe. It's not a useful base of comparison for NZ as whole.

PsychoSmiley

251 posts

Ultimate Geek
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#2791604 8-Oct-2021 09:26

Handle9: Their vaccination rates are outstanding. It would be worth considering whether the strategy that got them there can be replicated.

What do nothing and let it spread, and when the guano hits the fan, declare a medical emergency and flog all the vaccines from other areas to cover your own ineptitude?

KrazyKid

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#2791610 8-Oct-2021 09:48

PsychoSmiley:
Handle9: Their vaccination rates are outstanding. It would be worth considering whether the strategy that got them there can be replicated.

What do nothing and let it spread, and when the guano hits the fan, declare a medical emergency and flog all the vaccines from other areas to cover your own ineptitude?

I know that's semi tongue in cheek, but I'd say the main reason for the great uptake in NSW and other states is active cases in your community. Add in a few carrots for the vaccinated and stir for great vaccination numbers.

There will be a few other reasons like ACT and it's well off and educated workforce, but mostly the above.

PsychoSmiley

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Ultimate Geek
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#2791669 8-Oct-2021 10:02

Not tongue in cheek in the slightest. Consider that because of how NSW handled their delta outbreak is because we have it here. AU was looking pretty swell, and then gold standard Gladys screwed the pooch and let it out into the wild when it could have been mitigated by actually doing something.

Batman

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#2791670 8-Oct-2021 10:08

PsychoSmiley: Not tongue in cheek in the slightest. Consider that because of how NSW handled their delta outbreak is because we have it here. AU was looking pretty swell, and then gold standard Gladys screwed the pooch and let it out into the wild when it could have been mitigated by actually doing something.

If we can't contain one case in Auckland how successful will NSW be at containing?

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sbiddle

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#2791704 8-Oct-2021 10:31

Fred99:

Effectiveness against infection from a booster might wane just as fast as from the second dose and there are risks from constant jabbing - as well as from getting a (hopefully mild) infection.

10 million doses of Novavax on order, but no approvals anywhere yet, and delta-specific boosters in development, but I'm surprised that we don't have 5 million more doses of Pfizer on order as a backup plan.

We know that B cell and T cell responses will probably last for many years from the vaccination and that the real issue is short term antibodies which are declining quite rapidly.

I think our real issue is the once those antibodies decline that our bodies aren't necessarily generating antibodies from those B cells and T cells as quickly as we'd hope for or ideally want when we are exposed to the virus.

Hopefully the additional booster might be a sufficient wake up call to our bodies that it might not require a yearly booster, and hopefully 2nd generation vaccines work better, but only time is going to tell.. And experts right now really don't know the definitive answers.

ezbee

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#2791708 8-Oct-2021 10:37

Batman:
PsychoSmiley: Not tongue in cheek in the slightest. Consider that because of how NSW handled their delta outbreak is because we have it here. AU was looking pretty swell, and then gold standard Gladys screwed the pooch and let it out into the wild when it could have been mitigated by actually doing something.

If we can't contain one case in Auckland how successful will NSW be at containing?

Maybe you could call it the Murdoch index, a societies capability to contain an outbreak,
is inversely proportional to influence of Murdoch media.

Fred99

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#2791711 8-Oct-2021 10:46

sbiddle:

Hopefully the additional booster might be a sufficient wake up call to our bodies that it might not require a yearly booster, and hopefully 2nd generation vaccines work better, but only time is going to tell.. And experts right now really don't know the definitive answers.

Yup. It'd be nice if a very low dose of vaccine may be enough for a reset, possibly a bonus if there's a corresponding reduction in side effects with lower dose of mRNA, Myocarditis incidence is significantly higher with Moderna's second dose than Pfizer, what's the risk with third and subsequent doses?

An aerosol / inhaled vaccine might end up being the way to go for boosters.

TeaLeaf

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#2791720 8-Oct-2021 11:03

CruciasNZ:

They didn't lock Auckland down hard enough for long enough

Id add to that fast enough. But yes, it was a joke moving us to lvl3 when we were starting to get the virus into single digit cases. Every person Ive spoken too in Auckland, bar some flouter types, agrees. Familys were worried about education etc, but they could have handled such issues separately and kept people at home. The local roads, shops, beaches were just as busy day one of lvl 3 prior to the concessions. I dare wonder if any of the politicians who made the decisions had lived in Auck before to understand the impact lvl3 would make, or if it was a political decision to ease the pressure while hoping they could still contain the outbreak. But its in the past and we have to keep soldiering on, Im quietly confident they can keep contact tracing going especially with new tools being deployed.

I cant see the SI missing out on Covid one way or the other, once its endemic. Especially once we open borders obviously, so I do hope they can contain the spread while people scramble to deal with it,(I suspect it will be countries with Vax passport with a Vax that NZ deems suitable.......).

Does anybody have a peer review or an edu/science journal on which is the best brand of Rapid Ant tests?

Interesting article on Rapid Ant tests and Saliva, can somebody verify if this is a valid URL?
Rapid antigen tests get the go-ahead - Science Media Centre

sbiddle:

Hopefully the additional booster might be a sufficient wake up call to our bodies that it might not require a yearly booster, and hopefully 2nd generation vaccines work better, but only time is going to tell.. And experts right now really don't know the definitive answers.

Yes I think that should be the case on what Ive read and heard. the ABC coronacast said a couple weeks back, its likely dependent on age, but younger people only needing a 3 yearly top up and older people needing a yearly.

There are some people who seem to believe we have the capability to produce a single dose vaccine to beat the virus, but I havnt found any credible evidence for this as of yet?

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