2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2793915 12-Oct-2021 13:44

GV27:

I don't think anyone sane is suggesting we just strip away the borders and move to an effective level 2 for everyone.

But given that Auckland will soon be ahead of the national average for vaccines (if it isn't already) then it becomes a question of whether we need to be letting people who have been double-vaccinated be able to start getting back to some degree of normal - at least a sustainable version of normal, anyway.

Level 3 as it stands is not sustainable, just like full-bore level 2 isn't sustainable either.

I fully agree. Sydney has opened up the live with it scenario, 70% fully vaccinated, with effectively a Level 2.5 or better for those with the Vaccine Cert. Thats the way to go, both for freedom, businesses, and incentives.

SJB

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#2793964 12-Oct-2021 13:47

GV27:

Level 3 as it stands is not sustainable, just like full-bore level 2 isn't sustainable either.

I don't have any problem with 'full bore' level 2 here in SI. It could go on indefinitely without making much difference to me TBH.

PolicyGuy

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#2793970 12-Oct-2021 13:54

cddt:

mattwnz: Improving ventilation in classrooms will be very important according to experts

Yes, but it doesn't seem like there has been much communication about this. The same goes for offices and other workplaces - all those airtight buildings which increase energy efficiency are going to be germ incubators!

There are many mitigations available for those 'airtight buildings'.
One is to install HEPA filters in the return air duct just before the mixer, this will ensure that any virus being breathed out by an infected worker is filtered out. These are of course fairly useless unless there is regular and frequent maintenance of the filter packs
Another is to install UV sterilisers in the air flow immediately downstream of the heating/cooling air handlers, to kill off any airborne 'nasties'

Both these measures are by no means new or bleeding-edge, they are established technologies.
In NZ building owners and developers have by and large not seen the need to incorporate such things, except in hospital operating theatres and such-like places where they are explicitly in the specification

CruciasNZ

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#2793971 12-Oct-2021 13:54

GV27:

I don't think anyone sane is suggesting we just strip away the borders and move to an effective level 2 for everyone.

But given that Auckland will soon be ahead of the national average for vaccines (if it isn't already) then it becomes a question of whether we need to be letting people who have been double-vaccinated be able to start getting back to some degree of normal - at least a sustainable version of normal, anyway.

Level 3 as it stands is not sustainable, just like full-bore level 2 isn't sustainable either.

Aye, but if you loosen restrictions to Level 2 for just the vaccinated how do you stop the unvaccinated mingling in with them. You would need people to stop and check the vaccine status of people, and there are just not enough police in NZ to make that work. You can shift the mandate onto service providers, which is what they will almost certainly do (no jab card no entry) but that doesn't stop these high risk people from mingling with others.

This is a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation for the government. They could have, and probably should have, mobilized the Army to assist the police in manning Auckland internal and external checkpoints to enforce the rules, but politically that would have been suicide.

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Handsomedan

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#2793975 12-Oct-2021 13:58

CruciasNZ:

They could have, and probably should have, mobilized the Army to assist the police in manning Auckland internal and external checkpoints to enforce the rules, but politically that would have been suicide.

This is where it becomes a real issue for me. Separation of politics from public health.

I know - it's an idealistic viewpoint - but imagine if the Govt could actually do things for the betterment of the public health system, without worrying about their political future...just for a little bit.

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ezbee

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#2793991 12-Oct-2021 14:13

Schools
Considering the number of maintenance items, and upgrades to heating etc that don't happen in schools.
We know improving ventilation is not going to happen, just opening windows if they work, and not if they don't.
New open plan schools may not help with multiple classes sharing the same air ?
A study done in some schools in Auckland 2015 found
60% windows and doors did not operate correctly.
40% not easy to open.
80% had no insulation, maybe that's been fixed ?
Apparently that was one of the problems in green school land last year ?

It would have been nice to see the shovel ready projects being less shovel and fixing things like this.

ajobbins

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#2794005 12-Oct-2021 14:24

SJB:

At the current rate of progress in the UK, the entire population will have had C-19 in just over 5 years.

In the same time span a population equivalent to double the population of Dunedin will have died from the virus.

That's what happens when you stop trying to control it.

No one is planning or suggesting they 'stop trying to control it'. Some public health measures will likely be in place for quite some time yet - years perhaps.

What do you suggest they do? Heavy(ish) restrictions, like what Auckland has right now, aren't sustainable longer term - people get fatigued and miss their family and friends.

What is the right balance that is actually realistic and workable?

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cshwone

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#2794019 12-Oct-2021 14:53

CruciasNZ:

GV27:

I don't think anyone sane is suggesting we just strip away the borders and move to an effective level 2 for everyone.

But given that Auckland will soon be ahead of the national average for vaccines (if it isn't already) then it becomes a question of whether we need to be letting people who have been double-vaccinated be able to start getting back to some degree of normal - at least a sustainable version of normal, anyway.

Level 3 as it stands is not sustainable, just like full-bore level 2 isn't sustainable either.

Aye, but if you loosen restrictions to Level 2 for just the vaccinated how do you stop the unvaccinated mingling in with them. You would need people to stop and check the vaccine status of people, and there are just not enough police in NZ to make that work. You can shift the mandate onto service providers, which is what they will almost certainly do (no jab card no entry) but that doesn't stop these high risk people from mingling with others.

This is a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation for the government. They could have, and probably should have, mobilized the Army to assist the police in manning Auckland internal and external checkpoints to enforce the rules, but politically that would have been suicide.

But effectively that appears to be the plan going forward with the Vaccine Passport where unvaccinated will not be allowed entry into various venues. It's not about level 2 for vaccinated and level 3 for unvaccinated - it's more about everyone at the same level just more restrictions if you are unvaccinated ie no trips to the Cake Tin/ San Fran/ The Opera House etc

tdgeek

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#2794020 12-Oct-2021 14:55

ajobbins:

No one is planning or suggesting they 'stop trying to control it'. Some public health measures will likely be in place for quite some time yet - years perhaps.

What do you suggest they do? Heavy(ish) restrictions, like what Auckland has right now, aren't sustainable longer term - people get fatigued and miss their family and friends.

What is the right balance that is actually realistic and workable?

Mine is, get the vaccines up in AKL, NSW has then let vaccinned cert people free despite having huge numbers of daily cases. If AKL can do that with much lower cases (and these will largely be unvaccinated) thats an option. But its hard to see a Vaccine cert being in place soon, as the release date is sometime in Nov so lets say 30 Nov, that's 6 weeks away. There is a vaccine big deal I heard, might be this weekend, that needs to be pushed hard

Fred99

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#2794034 12-Oct-2021 15:29

ajobbins:

What is the right balance that is actually realistic and workable?

Given limited hospital / ICU beds, current rate of vaccination, and that while experts might not agree whether present restrictions should be eased or tightened - but by not very much - then I think we're at about the right setting for now. But in a month or even a week - who knows what the situation will be?

TeaLeaf

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#2794035 12-Oct-2021 15:31

ajobbins:

What do you suggest they do? Heavy(ish) restrictions, like what Auckland has right now, aren't sustainable longer term - people get fatigued and miss their family and friends.

What is the right balance that is actually realistic and workable?

I agree. Missing family not in NZ is a big one. Fatigure wise I think Auck had another 6 weeks of lvl 4 in it, if need be, people understood why it was needed, now they just seem confused as to why the Govt is making any decisions.

The Govt is playing chicken now and banking on Vax numbers (which given how that has played out in other high vaxxd countries is kinda odd given they had the chance to eliminate again), of which they havnt confirmed an exact figure.

IMO, they should have kept Auck at lvl4, which was clearly trending down, to its lowest point of 8, I felt another 2-4 weeks of it and we would have likely had the virus tracing under control. Instead the Govt about faced with what seemed a pointless lvl 3 and a further pointless lvl3 with a few less restrictions, which clearly has just raised numbers again. If the Govt was so confident it had it under control, to drop Auck from Lvl4 to 3 then a 2.5 of sorts, then perhaps Auck to lvl 2 is not off the cards (which we clearly arent ready for and wont be imo regardless of its moving targets, but hey, logic doesnt seem to be what is making the decisions at the moment).

What was the economic boost of dropping Auck from alert lvl 4 to 3 with concessions, for another couple of months potentially, vs having had Aucklands outbreak under control by now potentially by keeping Auck at 4 (which felt like 3.5)? We do not get a lot of economic modelling out of the Govt, or why it decided, just as it looked like the Outbreak was about to be under control they gave up on it and dropped Auck to lvl3. Id just like some actual analysis on the cost of dumping the plan when it was working vs semi opening Auck. Was the small benefit to the economy worth it, given how close we were? And knowing that would happen, if the decision to about face and dump the lvl 4 plan was not due to political pressure, and it it wasnt an economic one, then why?

Clearly lvl4 again is not off the cards either, if the Govt cannot get a grip on the outbreak and the rising R number truly goes exponential. But I suspect they will keep Auck and now the other towns in supposed Lvl3, in limbo until they "think" the vaccination number is high enough for NZ's fairly under resourced health system to handle the vast numbers of beds and staff that are going to be required. Personally I do not know why they are so confident, going off the back of what has happened overseas.

TeaLeaf

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#2794041 12-Oct-2021 15:46

tdgeek:

There is a vaccine big deal I heard, might be this weekend, that needs to be pushed hard

The vaxathon? Reminds me of the good old days of how to squeeze more money out of folks, Telethons haha.

The double vaxxed number is rising fast, as was expected, but the single vax not so much. I think they will be hard pressed to hit 90%+ by Xmas, given the hardest folk are yet to persuaded, those that feel it doesnt effect them or are simply anti vaxx. The last 2 weeks have been pleasing to see the single vax grow by 4%, perhaps whatever is planned this weekend might at least persuade some of those not interested in a Vax.

ajobbins

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#2794042 12-Oct-2021 15:47

Fred99:

Given limited hospital / ICU beds, current rate of vaccination, and that while experts might not agree whether present restrictions should be eased or tightened - but by not very much - then I think we're at about the right setting for now. But in a month or even a week - who knows what the situation will be?

Yes, I think the current setting is about right - maybe even a little loose. But you can't keep it at that level for many months or years and keep compliance. It's now really a race between getting people vaccinated and the protection that brings before they start breaking the rules anyway (more than is already occurring)

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ajobbins

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#2794045 12-Oct-2021 15:52

TeaLeaf:

I agree. Missing family not in NZ is a big one. Fatigure wise I think Auck had another 6 weeks of lvl 4 in it, if need be, people understood why it was needed, now they just seem confused as to why the Govt is making any decisions.

The Govt is playing chicken now and banking on Vax numbers (which given how that has played out in other high vaxxd countries is kinda odd given they had the chance to eliminate again), of which they havnt confirmed an exact figure.

IMO, they should have kept Auck at lvl4, which was clearly trending down, to its lowest point of 8, I felt another 2-4 weeks of it and we would have likely had the virus tracing under control.

...

While some of Auckland might have been able to go on at L4, the demographic where the virus was spreading are some of the most underprivileged and marginalised. Lockdowns hit them the hardest - people who are already struggling to survive, and taking away their work without significant support would never, in my opinion, have resulted in the compliance needed to let it die out.

The numbers were stable, at best, under L4 for weeks. If it was going to fizzle out it would have, but more than likely it was already ramping up by the time the govt made the decision - and they would have known that.

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wellygary

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#2794049 12-Oct-2021 15:57

tdgeek:

But its hard to see a Vaccine cert being in place soon, as the release date is sometime in Nov so lets say 30 Nov, that's 6 weeks away. There is a vaccine big deal I heard, might be this weekend, that needs to be pushed hard

The Vaccine Cert is going to be a bust on arrival and will pretty much only get used for Concerts and Stadium events..

The idea that you will need it to go to the pub will vanish as vax rates get high, from the 58% fully now to 88% fully is around 1.2 m doses,

@40K 2nd doses per day ( it will likely be higher) that's 30 days, i.e mid November.... so whether pubs and retail will look to use it for less than a month is highly debatable....

NSW are going to abandon their certificate privilege on 1 Dec, when they expect their full vax rates to hit 90% of eligib pop....

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