2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2796741 17-Oct-2021 14:55

sbiddle:
Has anybody seen any data online that shows any additional details of MIQ cases? I'm really curious over the past 2 months as an example how many MIQ cases were detected beyond the day 0/1 or day 3 tests. This is shown in the daily press releases but doesn't seem to be shown in any other easy to access location.

It's pretty clear now the business case for MIQ is slowly beginning to fade when we now have 363 cases this week of CT this week and 9 in MIQ with every one of those cases being pickup up during day 0/1 or day 3 testing. Looking back in recent weeks with the exception of a few close contacts who have become infectious later in their stay, virtually everybody is testing positive on day 0/1 or day 3. We're not collection vaccination status of arrivals so don't have a way to know what percentage of those who are testing positive are fully vaccinated, but you would have to assume the mast majority of people these days would be.

I don't have a link for you to any concrete data, but can say that day 7+ cases within cohorts are very rare, and almost always trace back to historic infections before entry.

I guess this points towards miq working reasonably well for the most part. Those people who test +ve in their first three days aren't going on to infect others in their cohort, nor bringing the infection into the rest of the country.

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#2796743 17-Oct-2021 14:59

auckland party https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/alleged-influencer-party-infuriates-locked-down-aucklanders-police-receive-multiple-complaints/DS6YIIL34HZDIO25Y4XLPW3GFU/

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#2796745 17-Oct-2021 15:14

melbourne lockdown to end on thursday when it hits 70% https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/300432114/covid19-australia-melbourne-lockdown-to-end-on-thursday

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#2796747 17-Oct-2021 15:18

meanwhile you can again go to Australia but never come back, and Aussies can return home I guess

https://www.odt.co.nz/news/national/australia-approves-quarantine-free-travel-south-island

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#2796749 17-Oct-2021 15:22

Batman:

auckland party

I wonder if you can be a social media fitness influencer from inside Prison? throw the 6 months at here and minimum $4k for everybody. Its getting beyond a joke, clearly the Govt are choking the police from carrying out their duty of care for the rest of us, which Im sure is not their decision.

Time for an inquest even, into why the pandemic has become political concern rather than a social and health based one. Its passed a joke, they are taking the piss now, and getting paid 6 figures to do it.

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#2796750 17-Oct-2021 15:25

TeaLeaf:

I can't recall where I read it, but what I read suggested natural immunity via a low viral load infection has approx the same efficacy as a double dose of Pfizer. Will search for it a bit later.

I have a question based on that, lets say somebody in the US has partial immunity due to a low viral load infection, can they extend that immune response via a vaccine (Moderna in this case)?

Likewise, if somebody catches a low viral load break through infection on top of pfizers said "42%" full efficacy, will that extend their full efficacy potential? not sure if any data on these situations has been studied as of yet, but is an interesting point.

There has been a lot of research into "hybrid immunity" where people who have had Covid have been vaccinated. There is some evidence to show these people have the best immune response (even better than just a vaccine alone).

I'm not sure how well things work the other way around because the body isn't necessarily generatng the same immune response if you're catching Covid after you've been vaccinated.

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#2796752 17-Oct-2021 15:30

TeaLeaf:
Batman:

auckland party

I wonder if you can be a social media fitness influencer from inside Prison? throw the 6 months at here and minimum $4k for everybody. Its getting beyond a joke, clearly the Govt are choking the police from carrying out their duty of care for the rest of us, which Im sure is not their decision.

Clearly you don’t have any evidence of that.

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#2796753 17-Oct-2021 15:32

Ge0rge:
sbiddle:

Has anybody seen any data online that shows any additional details of MIQ cases? I'm really curious over the past 2 months as an example how many MIQ cases were detected beyond the day 0/1 or day 3 tests. This is shown in the daily press releases but doesn't seem to be shown in any other easy to access location.

It's pretty clear now the business case for MIQ is slowly beginning to fade when we now have 363 cases this week of CT this week and 9 in MIQ with every one of those cases being pickup up during day 0/1 or day 3 testing. Looking back in recent weeks with the exception of a few close contacts who have become infectious later in their stay, virtually everybody is testing positive on day 0/1 or day 3. We're not collection vaccination status of arrivals so don't have a way to know what percentage of those who are testing positive are fully vaccinated, but you would have to assume the mast majority of people these days would be.

I don't have a link for you to any concrete data, but can say that day 7+ cases within cohorts are very rare, and almost always trace back to historic infections before entry.

I guess this points towards miq working reasonably well for the most part. Those people who test +ve in their first three days aren't going on to infect others in their cohort, nor bringing the infection into the rest of the country.

It shows MIQ is working, but in light of the very small number of cases it also shows the need for MIQ is now also waning also. If we're living in a country that has Covid and virtually every imported case is being detected on day 0/1 or day 3 tests it shows that the risks of letting people in without MIQ stays aren't anywhere near what they were. Preflight PCR testing, rapid tests before you board the plane, and then a radid test + PCR test on arrival before going into home isolation for a few days is going to pick up the vast majority of cases.

Once NSW opens up next month and then Victoria follows it's going to be very hard for the rest of Australia top stay shut, and likewise once Australia is open there is going to be massive pressure put on NZ to do the same.

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#2796759 17-Oct-2021 16:00

TeaLeaf:

I wonder if you can be a social media fitness influencer from inside Prison? throw the 6 months at here and minimum $4k for everybody. Its getting beyond a joke, clearly the Govt are choking the police from carrying out their duty of care for the rest of us, which Im sure is not their decision.

Time for an inquest even, into why the pandemic has become political concern rather than a social and health based one. Its passed a joke, they are taking the piss now, and getting paid 6 figures to do it.

Either verify these statements or withdraw them. You are just blowing hot air and this is not a political thread.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#2796773 17-Oct-2021 16:47

sbiddle:

If we're living in a country that has Covid and virtually every imported case is being detected on day 0/1 or day 3 tests it shows that the risks of letting people in without MIQ stays aren't anywhere near what they were.

Good point, although who wants to be the first to import Covid to the south island, waiheke, the chathams etc? I wouldn't.

You could have a good case for having MIQ of shorter duration tho. Dropping the stay to 4-7 days would get the throughput up.

The case for 'isolating at home' after travelling is predicated on middle class white people living in their own homes - what happens if you live somewhere more communal?

Most of the posters in this thread are just like chimpanzees on MDMA, full of feelings of bonhomie, joy, and optimism. Fred99 8/4/21

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#2796774 17-Oct-2021 16:58

Still a 1 way street and actual flights will rely on demand. But they think the South island is a good enough reason

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/travel-from-new-zealand-s-south-island-to-reopen-as-quarantine-free-flights-with-singapore-discussed-20211017-p590n7.html

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#2796775 17-Oct-2021 16:58

elpenguino:
sbiddle:

If we're living in a country that has Covid and virtually every imported case is being detected on day 0/1 or day 3 tests it shows that the risks of letting people in without MIQ stays aren't anywhere near what they were.

Good point, although who wants to be the first to import Covid to the south island, waiheke, the chathams etc? I wouldn't.

You could have a good case for having MIQ of shorter duration tho. Dropping the stay to 4-7 days would get the throughput up.

The case for 'isolating at home' after travelling is predicated on middle class white people living in their own homes - what happens if you live somewhere more communal?

It won’t really matter. When there are hundreds of cases per day an extra case or two in the community won’t move the needle.

TeaLeaf

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#2796776 17-Oct-2021 16:59

Handle9:

Clearly you don’t have any evidence of that.

Fair call, but somebody is clearly instructing them not to enforce it. I retrack my statement, I meant its clearly coming from above somewhere. Just frustrated and would like to know why. I mean, if this is going to keep being allowed, don't those not flouting have the right to know why?

It is the exact situation I was refering to where, knowing large congregations of a demographic were causing mass cases, to then say to the rest of Auckland you can now do the same and expect people who have been in lockdown for months not to do the same was very naive.

Personally I think its a bit hard after the fact, not sure why the police were not rung at the time, aside from it causing hostile neighbours, which I can understand. Ive been reluctant when Ive seen people I have no evidence of not being extended family, but a party is a bit of a different situation....

sbiddle:

There has been a lot of research into "hybrid immunity" where people who have had Covid have been vaccinated. There is some evidence to show these people have the best immune response (even better than just a vaccine alone).

I'm not sure how well things work the other way around because the body isn't necessarily generatng the same immune response if you're catching Covid after you've been vaccinated.

Yes I saw some of the hybrid immunity info, fascinating.

But yeah, given there are statements that natural immunity post infection is about the same as pfizer (for full immune efficacy), it would be interesting to know if a low viral load will increase the pfizer full efficacy toward delta. Im sure some data will emerge.

It is definitely a race on for these 2 big pharma's being compared, the 3rd Moderna booster will be waited by many nations Im picking, if the FDA approve.

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#2796778 17-Oct-2021 17:02

TeaLeaf:
Handle9:

Clearly you don’t have any evidence of that.

Fair call, but somebody is clearly instructing them not to enforce it. I retrack my statement. Just frustrated and would like to know why. I mean, if this is going to keep being allowed, don't other people wan't to know why?

More than likely the police have decided a riot would be bad.

Ge0rge

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#2796781 17-Oct-2021 17:13

Nothing like rubber bullets and CS to make people stop and think "oh, did I leave the oven on? Might just pop back home and check..."

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